National Football League

2024-25 NFL preseaon odds, predictions, picks: Ravens best bet to cover Week 1

Updated Aug. 7, 2024 2:58 p.m. ET

Bettors, on your marks!

The first full slate of NFL preseason games starts on Thursday and continues through Sunday, meaning there are plenty of opportunities to wager on the action for the 2024 exhibition season.

Here is how I’ve always done it: I wager on coaches and on situations.

We have years of records that let us know how coaches perform against the spread (ATS) during this time of year, and the data tells us that backing non-offensive coaches is generally the way to go.

Some of the best coaches against the spread are John Harbaugh, Mike Tomlin, Sean McDermott and Robert Saleh. These are all non-offensive-minded coaches who have records of better than 55% ATS in the preseason.

In my day, I played for both offensive and defensive coaches, so allow me to explain why that's the case.

Defensive coaches care more about the results of these games. They focus on physicality, tackling and aggression, and they look at every single rep as an opportunity to punch the opponent in the mouth.

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Offensive coaches, on the other hand, tend to care about getting their reps in but working out the specifics. They are less concerned about whether the third string linebacker is laying the lumber to an opposing running back in the fourth quarter.

Also, younger head coaches, whose backgrounds are rooted in offense, rarely play their starters in the preseason.

That's just not the case with defensive coaches. They actually want to see their full team get reps in the preseason.

With all this in mind, let's dive into my picks for NFL preseason Week 1.

(All times ET)

Eagles @ Ravens (7:30 p.m., Aug. 9, NFL+)

Back to the well with the Ravens in the preseason.

Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is 40-20 ATS and a remarkable 44-14 straight up (SU) as coach of the Ravens. He’s also 14-2 in Week 1 of the preseason.

Baltimore had won 24 straight preseason games until that streak was broken last August. Offense and quarterbacks are what make the Ravens uniquely tougher than most during this time of year. You just don't prepare for the Ravens' offensive attack in the preseason, especially in Week 1.

Baltimore also has proven backup quarterbacks who are able to extend plays with their legs, and that keeps opposing defenses off balance. I think, too, that Harbaugh’s special teams background has an impact in the preseason when you have the second-, third- and fourth-string players taking a majority of those reps. Not only are they crisper on special teams, but they have Justin Tucker to kick field goals.

That's a huge plus.

Finally, I like Harbaugh’s Ravens against the Eagles, a squad that doesn't usually cover spreads in preseason under Nick Sirianni. As a matter of fact, they've covered just twice in three preseasons.

So I’ll back the Ravens here.

PICK: Ravens (+1)

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Chiefs @ Jaguars (7 p.m. Aug. 10, NFL Network)

Andy Reid’s record ATS in the preseason is one game above .500, but he’s 7-2 in that spot in the last three preseasons.

When it comes to non-offensive coaches in the preseason, he's the exception to the rule.

The Chiefs have a good preseason record the last three years for a few reasons.

First, Reid plays his starters in preseason games and that often gives Kansas City an advantage when it is playing against backups. Then, the Chiefs' roster is loaded with talented players who are battling for those second- and third-team roster spots. Those guys are coming to play in hopes of impressing the coaching staff enough to earn a spot on the team.

Finally, K.C. has a good special teams unit. That matters in these games. The fewer errors you have on special teams, the more points.

For this game, I'm wagering on the Chiefs' first-half moneyline. And it's because of backup quarterback Carson Wentz.

I can’t believe I just wrote that, but truthfully, he’s going to be amped up to play in this one. Additionally, the Chiefs will have a good plan for him and there will be a bunch of hungry offensive skill players battling for the final running back and wide receiver positions on this roster.

Plus, we could see someone like Xavier Worthy get snaps with the second unit just to get some game action. This will all be helpful for the Chiefs.

PICK: Chiefs (+115) first-half moneyline

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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