National Football League

2024 NFL predictions, odds for AFC, NFC Championship games: Picks, lines, spreads

Updated Jan. 27, 2024 3:45 p.m. ET

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Sam Panayotovich

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

We're down to the final four teams in the NFL.

The Baltimore Ravens will play host to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday.

The Detroit Lions will play at the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game at 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday on FOX and the FOX Sports App.

The winners will meet in Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas on Feb. 11.

RELATED: Super Bowl odds

The Ravens are 4-point favorites.

The 49ers are 7.5-point favorites.

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL odds for the conference championships from a betting perspective — the point spread, moneyline and the total (Over/Under).

SUNDAY'S GAMES

All times ET

Chiefs @ Ravens (3 p.m., CBS)

Point spread: Ravens -4 (Ravens favored to win by more than 4 points; otherwise, Chiefs cover)
Moneyline: Ravens -209 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $14.78 total); Chiefs +173 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $27.30 total)
Total: 44.5 points scored by both teams combined

Sam Panayotovich:

It’s been a while since a No. 1 overall seed was this undervalued in the playoffs. That’s a testament to the staying power of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. They’re a damn monetary magnet, especially as a 'dog.

Since September 2018, Kansas City is 9-1-1 against the spread when catching points. And while I truly understand the appetite, I’m swiftly going the other way. Baltimore’s defense is elite, and it’s a major step up in competition from those Miami and Buffalo units that were decimated by injuries. The Ravens led the entire NFL with 60 sacks, and they will pressure the pocket at will.

Rather than mess around with laying points for the whole game, I’ll cut it down the middle and bet Baltimore in the first half. Let’s get ahead of Reid’s halftime adjustments and avoid fourth-quarter Mahomes at all costs.

PICK: Ravens -2.5 1st Half

Geoff Schwartz Prop #1: Travis Kelce receptions — Over/Under 5.5

I had Travis Kelce Over 5.5 receptions against the Buffalo Bills, and he finished with just five.

Yes, those five catches were crucial because he converted multiple first downs and scored two touchdowns. But "only" five receptions against a beat-up Buffalo back seven is a tad alarming considering the Chiefs now have to face the Ravens' outstanding linebacker and safety group.

Baltimore has defenders who can run with Kelce, especially now that the tight end has clearly lost a step this season.

Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald will take away Kelce as a first option for Patrick Mahomes. It's also worth noting that Kelce is not the every-down player he has been in the past now that he's reached the ripe age of 34. Now, after a big catch, he tends to find himself on the sideline for a few plays.

I don't expect him to be a high-volume pass catcher on Sunday.

PICK: Travis Kelce UNDER 5.5 receptions

Schwartz Prop #2: Lamar Jackson rushing yards — Over/Under 63.5

Kansas City has an excellent pass defense and the Chiefs will take away Jackson's ability to use his arm so he will resort to running the football when the pass game struggles.

Plus, the Chiefs rushing defense is without some interior linemen and possibly one of their linebackers in Willie Gay, and that's not going to be helpful in trying to stop Jackson.

Kansas City's defense tends to allow mobile quarterbacks to escape the pocket with poor rush lanes. Joe Burrow and Josh Allen have routinely run the ball well against the Chiefs in the postseason. I expect Jackson to run it well on Sunday.

PICK: Lamar Jackson OVER 63.5 rushing yards

What went wrong for Josh Allen, Bills in crushing loss to Chiefs?

Lions @ 49ers (6:30 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

Point spread: 49ers -7.5 (49ers favored to win by more than 7.5 points; otherwise, Lions cover)
Moneyline: 49ers -351 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $12.85 total); Lions +276 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $37.60 total)
Total: 52 points scored by both teams combined

Panayotovich:

I took it on the chin with San Francisco last week.

It happens.

As hesitant as I was to lay a touchdown with the Niners after they almost lost outright as 9.5-point favorites to Green Bay, it’s time to get back on the horse.

Detroit’s ascension this year has been one of the best stories in American sports and Dan Campbell might get a statue outside Ford Field if the Lions can do the unthinkable and reach the Super Bowl. You know better, though.

The Niners are worlds ahead of the Rams and Buccaneers and assuming they shake the rust and avoid another early injury to a star player, they’ll be fine. What’s the final if San Francisco brings its "A" game? I’m thinking 31-17.

It’ll take a near-perfect game from Jared Goff to beat me, and I’m more than willing to find out.

PICK: 49ers (-7) to win by more than 7 points

Schwartz Prop #1: Brandon Aiyuk receiving yards Over/Under 79.5 yards

Detroit's pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL.

The Lions allowed 147 yards to Tampa Bay's Mike Evans. That divisional round contest against the Buccaneers marked the fifth-straight game the Lions allowed at least 140 yards to one receiver.

I’m going to wager on that trend continuing. It's clear teams have figured out ways for their best receiver to find open space against Detroit.

On a more positive note for the Lions, they do score points. So ultimately, opposing offenses have to push the ball downfield and keep scoring if they want to keep up.

PICK: Brandon Aiyuk OVER 79.5 receiving yards

Schwartz Prop #2: Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush Over/Under 14.5 yards

San Francisco's run defense is 26th in expected points added and opponents have taken advantage of that lately. The Lions are 10th in rushing EPA and fifth in yards per rush, so this is a good spot for Detroit.

Both of the Lions' running backs — Gibbs and David Montgomery — averaged over 4.6 yards per attempt during the regular season.

The 49ers have allowed five running backs in their last four games to have an explosive rush of over 16 yards. The way the Lions scheme their running game plus the explosive nature of Gibbs' running style means that Gibbs' longest rush could very well be over 14.5 yards.

PICK: Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush OVER 14.5 yards

Keep checking FOX Sports for updates on the NFL's conference championship round.