National Football League

2024 NFL Draft: Analyzing 5 hypothetical trade offers for Bears' No. 1 pick

Updated Feb. 28, 2024 7:15 p.m. ET

Carmen Vitali and 4 more

Just call me the "Bears Bachelorette."

Our team of FOX NFL writers is going to do a little thought exercise on one of the most talked about storylines of this NFL Draft cycle: the Chicago Bears' QB decision. The team once again owns the first overall pick, and while all signs (and most logic) point to them using the pick to draft a quarterback, reset the contract clock at the position and take advantage of the fact that they're set up to develop a tremendous young talent for once, there's still another side of the coin.

The Bears could trade the pick again. General manager Ryan Poles, who has been mum about which way Chicago is leaning so far, did say he would have to be "blown away" by an offer to forfeit such a unique draft position. But with plenty of quarterback-needy teams, maybe he and the Bears will be.

That's where our game comes in. What would be a mind-blowing haul and what could each of Chicago's suitors offer the team? Let's get all dressed up, enter the mansion and see who I, as our resident NFC North reporter and Chicago expert, would give the final rose to.

Atlanta Falcons

Greg Auman: Atlanta needs a quarterback. You'll see them linked, rather expensively, to Kirk Cousins, and also as trading up from the No. 8 pick to land one of the top three rookies in this draft class.

So they could make one of two very different deals with the Bears, either taking Justin Fields off their hands for, say, a second- and fifth-round pick, or in dealing up from No. 8 to grab the top pick, much like Carolina did going from 9 to 1 for Bryce Young last year.

So what would it take to grab the top pick? We'll start with the Falcons' top two picks — 8 and 43 this year — plus their 2025 first-round pick, a second-round pick in 2025 and a third-round pick in 2026.

Vitali: Considering the way new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron likes to use multiple-tight-end sets, if Kyle Pitts were on the table, I might consider this. The future picks help. But ultimately, I can’t quite get there.

What will the Bears do with Caleb Williams, Justin Fields in the NFL Draft?

Las Vegas Raiders

Ben Arthur: The Raiders need a quarterback — Aidan O'Connell isn't the long-term answer; Jimmy Garoppolo is as good as gone as a cap casualty candidate — but at No. 13 overall, they're not in a position to grab one of the top three guys (presumptive No. 1 pick Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels). So I wouldn't rule out the Raiders being aggressive to move for one of them, to kick off the Antonio Pierce era with a splash.

To get the first pick, Las Vegas would obviously have to give up more than Carolina did last year — wide receiver D.J. Moore, two firsts (including No. 9 overall last year) and two seconds (including No. 61 last year) — considering its four spots behind where the latter was.

So how about this for Chicago: two firsts (No. 13 this year, the 2025 first-rounder) and two seconds (2024, 2025), plus the Raiders' 2025 third-rounder and special teams ace/wide receiver DJ Turner? How are we feeling?

Vitali: A special-teams ace and wide receiver doesn’t move the needle much here, Vegas. Go big or go home; isn’t that what your city is about?

I’m a little disappointed in the lack of proven commodities being offered. Moore was what got the deal done for Poles last year. Chicago needs help on the offensive line, at edge rusher and at receiver. But I need a comparable threat to Moore so I can force defenses into some tough decisions come Sundays. The future capital is intriguing, though I'd need a couple of later-round picks, too.

New England Patriots

Henry McKenna: A wise man once said….

"We got criticized a little bit for how much we gave up for [our quarterback in the draft]. And I'm like, well, if he doesn't work out, I'm not going to be here anyway. And if he does work out, nobody's gonna give a sh*t."

That was Brandon Beane when he was asked Tuesday about the Bills trading up twice to get Josh Allen in 2018. And he's right. No one gives a … hoot about how much they gave up to get Allen. He's among the top three quarterbacks in the NFL.

That's why the Patriots get aggressive. What we're offering in this exercise: 2024's No. 3 overall selection and its 34th overall pick, a 2025 first-rounder and 2026 second-rounder.

Williams simply is the surest bet when compared to the other prospects. Jayden Daniels had a terrific year. But it was one year — and his fifth year, no less. There are innate risks to taking someone as skinny as him at the position, particularly when they're mobile. There are also innate risks taking a player who has a large sample of mediocrity and a small sample of success. And then there's Drake Maye, who everyone compares to Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. But it's important to remember that basically everyone thought those two guys would be busts. They were tremendously risky picks. But because of the supporting cast, they have developed into the best version of themselves.

Do we seriously think the Patriots have that in place for Maye?

No, that's why they need Williams. That's why they're giving up a haul to get him. Because he is the quarterback who has the least question marks. And he's the quarterback who appears ready to elevate an offense regardless of who is around him.

Maybe this deal looks less substantive than what some teams are offering. But I bet the Bears can trade down again, because someone is going to want whichever QB slips to the No. 3 pick. There's a massive gulf between third and fourth overall in this draft.

Vitali: This is a real offer. It includes a future first. The Bears have gotten used to having multiple first-round picks as of late. To move off taking Williams or Maye or any one of these quarterbacks, that trend will have to continue. This also puts Chicago out of contention for the top two quarterbacks, unlike a Washington offer. That's something to consider.

Interestingly enough, New England seems to be a prime trade partner for Fields, too. Either way, there are plenty of discussions between these two teams happening right now.

Caleb Williams declared ‘generational talent’ ahead of 2024 NFL Draft

New York Giants

Ralph Vacchiano: It's hard to believe that it was just a year ago that the Giants went all-in on Daniel Jones, to the tune of $160 million over four years, with $105 million in guarantees. It would be a monumental shift for the Giants' brain trust to be all-out on him already, which is what they'd be if they traded up to take a quarterback with the first overall pick in the draft.

If they were convinced Jones' best is behind him, that Caleb Williams or Drake Maye had a higher ceiling, and they were willing to take a step back for a year or two before finally leaping forward … well, then, now is the time to do it. They are in striking distance of No. 1 in a quarterback-rich draft. They'd have to take advantage of this opportunity if they were ready to move on.

It wouldn't be cheap, though. Based on the value chart, they could send Chicago their first-round pick (No. 6 overall) and both their second-rounders (39 and 47) and they'd still be well short of equal value for the top pick. They'd probably have to include more. Or if they didn't want to give up both second-rounders this year, they'd have to give up next year's No. 1.

That's a huge price to pay. Absolutely huge. And they'd have to do picks, because they need the same kind of players the Bears need — young, promising players on rookie contracts.

So here's the deal, knowing they have to out-bid a bunch of teams in this process: The Giants can offer their first-round pick and both their second-round picks this year, plus a second- and a third-rounder in 2025 in exchange for the top pick in the draft. If that seems like a lot, well consider this: In 2018, the Jets traded almost that exact package to the Indianapolis Colts — the No. 6 pick, both their second-rounders (Nos. 37 and 49) and a future second-rounder. But they only moved up to No. 3 where they drafted Sam Darnold.

Adding a third-rounder to that package might be enough to get the Giants all the way to the top.

Vitali: I get that it’s a historic offer in the sense that the Jets have made it before and this is a lot of capital to give up, but does it blow me away? I’m just not sure. The Giants are asking the Bears to pass on what could be a franchise-fixer. But Poles has been very successful in the second and third rounds. It isn’t all about first-rounders. And this deal has multiple valuable picks in the top 100 this year which could complete Chicago’s roster.

Why the Bears can't afford to pass on Caleb Williams

Washington Commanders

Vacchiano: The Washington Commanders are in a pretty sweet spot in the draft already. They're going to land one of the two best quarterbacks available — USC's Caleb Williams or North Carolina's Drake Maye — and they're going to be pretty happy with whichever one they get. There's really only one reason for them to move up, and that's if they fall in love with one of them and believe he's a generational quarterback — an Andrew Luck, a Peyton Manning, a Patrick Mahomes, or someone like that.

Not a lot of NFL people think Williams or Maye fits that description, but let's say the Commanders' new offensive coordinator, Kliff Kingsbury, does — especially since he spent last season coaching at USC. And let's say he convinces new general manager Adam Peters it's worth moving up one spot to get him.

That won't be as easy as it looks. No NFL team has ever traded up from No. 2 to No. 1 in the draft, and for several good reasons. For one, if the Bears want to trade down it means they don't want a quarterback, and they're likely to get much bigger hauls from teams drafting in the 3-6 range, where they could still get a top player at another position. For another, if you go by the infamous trade value chart, all they could expect to get from Washington is an extra second-round pick.

The Commanders would have to do better than that to get the rose (and the No. 1 pick) from the Bears in a competitive bidding environment. And a rebuilding … excuse me, a "recalibrating" franchise isn't likely to want to give up a ton of current or future draft picks.

But if they want to do it, let's start with this: The Commanders offer their first-round pick (No. 2 overall), one of their two second-rounders (the first one, No. 36) and a third-round pick in 2025 as a sweetener. And they're already way over the value on the chart, so Williams had better be worth it.

Vitali: Here’s the thing: leverage comes from what happens if a deal doesn’t get done. If the Commanders don’t get their guy — presumably Williams, given the Kingsbury connection — are they OK with Drake Maye? Or swinging for a high-priced free agent? This roster isn’t going far with their current quarterback. Washington is in obvious need and the Bears can exploit that at the cost of just going down one spot — especially in the form of future capital, which this deal is lean on.

Here’s a thought, too — what if Chicago prefers Maye to Williams?

And the Bears' choice is …

Thank you all for those wonderful offers. They’re all special in their own ways, and I feel most of you put your best foot forward. Though, like I said, a little disappointed in the unwillingness to part with some top-tier, proven talent.

I digress.

Here’s the thing. The rose I hold is worth a lot in the form of the first overall pick. It means the chance to pick from one of the best quarterback classes in recent years and the ability to have that player on a team-controlled contract until at least 2027. It’s not just getting the player, it’s the ability to build a team with an NFL-ready player (presumably) and stack the deck around him with the cap savings.

So while I appreciate your offers, I think I’ve just talked myself into using this rose for myself. Plot twist, no trade. We’re going to actually use the No. 1 pick this time. Oh, and we still have the No. 9 pick, too.

Thanks for playing!

The following reporters contributed to this story:

AFC South reporter Ben Arthur (@benyarthur)
NFC South reporter Greg Auman (@gregauman)
AFC East reporter Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis)
NFC East reporter Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano)
NFC North reporter Carmen Vitali (@CarmieV)