National Football League

2024 NFL odds: Back Packers to cover in Thursday Night showdown with Lions

Published Dec. 4, 2024 4:35 p.m. ET

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The Lions and the Packers will face off in a huge Thursday Night Football showdown to kick off NFL Week 14.

The look-ahead line here was Lions -6. Then, they nearly collapsed in the second half on Thanksgiving against the Bears, and the injuries started piling up.

On defense, the Detroit front seven is decimated to the point that the Lions signed former safety Jamal Adams to play linebacker. Three defensive linemen (two starters) aren’t practicing this week.

The last meeting was in October, and it was played in a rainstorm. It’s tough to take much away from a game in which the Lions led 24-3 early in the third quarter, and the Packers went on to stack yards while in chase mode to make the box score look like the game was competitive — it wasn’t.

Who are the Packers? Well, they’ve won seven of eight games, and they were favored in all of them — except in their game against Detroit. And they lost that one. So the Packers have beaten who they were expected to beat.

However, these recent wins have not been impressive.

The Dolphins can’t perform in cold weather, the 49ers were missing a million starters (including Brock Purdy), and they survived the Bears on a blocked field goal at the final horn.

They let Jacksonville hang around and beat the Texans on a last-second field goal. You have to go back to mid-October to find a convincing win — a beatdown of Arizona, which happened at home after the Cardinals stunned the 49ers in a landmark win.

So I’m not really sure who the Packers are.

The last time I tried to bet against the Lions was with the Colts, and that ended poorly. But in a divisional matchup, I’ve got to take the points here.

League-wide this season, divisional rematches have been mostly lower scoring and often very close. The Lions' defensive third-down fortunes (No. 1 in third down defense at 31% compared to 13th last year) aren’t likely to continue. And this game figures to be a big Josh Jacobs game. The way his prop totals are lined, the market expects him to have 20-25 carries and a monster day against the banged-up Lions defense.

How close are the Packers to the Lions?

The Lions hadn’t given up a second-half point in three games. Then the Bears moved the ball at will behind rookie Caleb Williams and scored 20 points, nearly winning the game.

If you think the Packers can win outright, you should also bet that the Eagles secure the No. 1 seed, if you can find that at a sportsbook.

PICK: Packers (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points, or win outright

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

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