National Football League

2024 NFL Playoff odds: Best bets for Packers-Cowboys, Browns-Texans

Published Jan. 12, 2024 4:41 p.m. ET

How ‘bout them Wolverines?

Michigan cemented another decent weekend for this column, and now we’re onto the NFL Playoffs. I know people want picks for every game, but that’s just not going to happen here. These lines are so tight, and the edges are minimal.

That said, I still have three football bets for this weekend. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These will always be the games I love the most.

Let’s go to work.

Cleveland Browns (-2, O/U 44.5) at Houston Texans

Wise guys love Houston here.

There’s been an avalanche of sharp money on the Texans at +3 and +2.5 over the last couple of days in Las Vegas, and now those hooks are mostly gone. Cleveland’s defense is stellar up front, but there are some serious back-end issues with safety Grant Delpit out and corner Denzel Ward banged up.

First-time playoff quarterbacks are usually good fades in the postseason, but I’m betting on C.J. Stroud to overcome what many others haven’t. That kid has special arm talent and a coaching staff that lets him do his thing.

Cleveland is a better story, but Houston is a better bet.

PICK: Texans (+2) to lose by fewer than 2 points (or win outright)

Will Matthew Stafford lead underdog Rams to win vs. Lions?

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3, O/U 52)

I’ve found myself on the trendy public underdog.

Ugh.

However, I’ve been talking all year long about how Dan Campbell will cost the Lions a deep playoff run with a dumb decision. He’s like your buddy at the blackjack table who gets a bad card and then loses his wad within 15 minutes.

The Rams’ offense is as healthy as it’s been all season, and I have a ton of faith in Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams moving the ball against an extremely questionable Detroit defense.

Oh yeah … and we get Sean McVay.

PICK: Rams ML +140

Cowboys host Packers in first round of NFL Playoffs: who wins?

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, O/U 43)
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-7, O/U 50.5)

Let’s not overthink this one.

I’ll be shocked if wobbly Miami beats Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid at Arrowhead in sub-zero weather, and Dallas is a touchdown favorite indoors. But rather than mess around and lay a bunch of points, let’s get creative.

Take Kansas City and Dallas to win their respective games. A Chiefs-Cowboys moneyline parlay might not be the sharpest play in the world, but are either of them losing?

I’m willing to find out.

PICK: Chiefs ML / Cowboys ML -115

2023 Record: (48-34-5, +10.4)

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.