National Football League

2024 NFL odds: Could the Chiefs miss the playoffs?

Published Oct. 3, 2024 10:16 a.m. ET

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Jason McIntyre

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

There are several interesting storylines unfolding in the NFL right now. For example, rookie Jayden Daniels is possibly on the cusp of stardom, the Vikings are 4-0 and then there's the DaVante Adams trade scuttlebutt. 

But one of the most underplayed stories from the weekend was the knee injury suffered by Chiefs receiver Rashee Rice. 

The Chiefs offense had already been sputtering to start the season. Travis Kelce is moving like a guy who is nearly 35 years old. Patrick Mahomes has five interceptions in four games. Free agent Hollywood Brown’s season ended after just one preseason game. Kansas City's leading rusher each of the last two seasons — Isiah Pacheco — might not play again this season due to a broken leg. 

And Sunday, Rice, by far the Chiefs' best offensive weapon, suffered a gnarly knee injury and is unlikely to play again in the regular season.

Are we sure this team is headed back to the playoffs? 

I ask that because K.C. is now 4-0 in one-score games, and all were very close deep into the fourth quarter. 

It’s ok to say it: The Chiefs offense is the weakest it has been in the Mahomes era. It was vulnerable last year, going 3-5 down the stretch, with wins coming against Jake Browning and Cincy, a terrible Patriots team and the Raiders, who they almost always destroy. 

But then Mahomes had a tremendous playoff run and K.C. rallied to win the Super Bowl. 

Can the Chiefs do it again, with a weaker supporting cast than last season? 

Currently, at DraftKings Sportsbook, "to make the playoffs," the Chiefs are -10000. "No playoffs" is +2000.

There’s a case to be made that "no playoffs" for the Chiefs is worth some pizza money. 

Yes, the division stinks. The Raiders are a mess, the Broncos aren’t remotely ready to be a wild-card team (both were bad last year and yes, did beat K.C.), and the Chargers just lost to K.C. 17-10 in a game that was nip and tuck the entire way — and that’s with L.A. missing both starting tackles, their Kelce stopper in Derwin James and also their best pass rusher in Joey Bosa.

Can Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs overcome key injuries?

The Saints game on Monday is a big one. If K.C. goes to 5-0 — and it is currently favored by six and playing at home, so it should win again — that’s a massive head start on the division and frankly, the AFC. 

A loss to the Saints makes things very interesting because that first place schedule results in games at San Francisco, at Buffalo and vs. the Texans. The Chiefs will be big favorites in many of their remaining games — at Carolina, for instance — but for a team with a left tackle issue and skill position woes … they’re going to be in a lot of close games. 

Toss in the pressure to 3-peat and that burden can weigh on a team.

This Chiefs offense doesn’t scare anyone. If the Chargers can get healthy, their schedule is extremely soft. And if they can get to 10 wins, the Chiefs ending at nine and missing out on a wild-card berth in a loaded AFC is certainly in play.

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

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Jason McIntyre