National Football League

2024 NFL odds: Joe Burrow best bet for Offensive Player of the Year

Updated Nov. 7, 2024 1:06 p.m. ET

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Will Hill

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

As the calendar flips to November, we come down the stretch for the back nine of the NFL season. 

Last week, we only saw one underdog win outright, as the Panthers beat the Saints. The chalk prevailed, after an early-season flurry of upsets. 

The signature performance of Week 9 was the Lions' statement win in Green Bay. Detroit led the Packers 24-3 late in the game before a couple of late scores made it a 24-14 final — a score that did not reflect just how in control the Lions were from start to finish. 

With only one loss — a fluky, early-season defeat at home to the Bucs — the Lions not only look like the best team in the NFC but perhaps the best team in all the NFL. 

In the AFC, the Chiefs remained unbeaten, while the Ravens steamrolled a solid Broncos defense, as a rematch of last year’s AFC title game seems more and more possible every week. 

Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff all entered last week with single-digit odds to win the MVP. All four players led their teams to wins, leaving the odds fairly static, aside from a small tick up for Jackson (+250) and Goff (+600). 

While I don’t see a great bet in that market, there is another award bet that got my attention.

Joe Burrow To Win Offensive Player of the Year 100-1 (FanDuel)

Joe Burrow is quietly having an outstanding season, perhaps flying under the radar because of the team’s lackluster start to the year. 

But the team has played better as of late and is still around even money to make the playoffs. 

The MVP is typically reserved for quarterbacks who lead their team to 12 wins or more and capture a top-two seed. Burrow won’t fit that criteria in all likelihood, but is it possible he gets Offensive Player Of the Year? 

Does Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson need a win more in Week 10?

This award has not gone to a quarterback in several years but did get handed out to a QB three times in a four-year stretch from 2015 to 2018. Burrow is heading into Thursday night’s game against the Ravens having already thrown 20 touchdowns and only four interceptions, giving him a realistic chance to throw for 40 touchdowns or more. 

To put that in perspective, Jackson won MVP last year with 24 TDs the entire season, Mahomes won it the year prior with 41, while Rodgers threw 37 TDs in his 2021 MVP season. 

Burrow might not have enough team success to win the MVP, but at 100-1, with his gaudy statistics, a long shot bet on him to win Offensive Player of the Year is an interesting and perhaps lucrative bet to make. 

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.

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