National Football League

2024 NFL odds: Mahomes, Chiefs in unfamiliar territory on the road against Buffalo

Published Jan. 20, 2024 12:31 p.m. ET

Sunday's game will be a new experience for Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes & Co. travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills in an AFC Divisional Round game. And in one of the quirkiest facts from this season, it will be the first true "road" playoff game of Mahomes' seven-year NFL career.

Mahomes has an impressive playoff record of 12-3, but 12 games were at Arrowhead Stadium (10-2). The other three were Super Bowls, where Mahomes and the Chiefs are 2-1.

Kansas City last played a road playoff game on Jan. 16, 2016, a 27-20 divisional loss at New England, about 15 months before Mahomes was drafted with the No. 10 pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.

For comparison, Tom Brady was 13-2 in his first 15 postseason starts, winning three Super Bowls.

The Chiefs are 2.5-point underdogs and if that holds, it will be the 11th time in Mahomes' 111 career games that Kansas City is the underdog.

With Mahomes, Kansas City is 8-1-1 against the spread (ATS) as the underdog and an impressive 7-3 straight up.

Mahomes and Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen have split their six head-to-head meetings.

Allen holds a 3-1 edge in the regular season (including a 20-17 win at Kansas City on Dec. 10), and Mahomes is 2-0 in the postseason.

FOX Sports betting analysts Jason McIntyre and Sam "Sammy P" Panayotovich gave their thoughts on the Chiefs-Bills game on "Talk the Line."

"The Chiefs have a two-day rest advantage because Buffalo's game was pushed back a day. The Bills also suffered some tough injuries at linebacker and in the secondary against the Steelers," McIntyre said.

"Some of that is baked into the line (the look ahead was 3), but it feels like the Bills' six-game hot streak has been a little overdone in hindsight, with the Dallas and Miami wins looking less impressive."

Josh Allen 0-2 in playoffs vs. Patrick Mahomes - third time's a charm for Bills?

Sammy P said to go with your gut instinct.

"I lean towards Buffalo, but this line won't change much. Expect to see some sharp groups fight on Buffalo -2.5 and Kansas City +3," Panayotovich said.

"My advice is simple: If you like the Bills, lay the 2.5, and if you're on the Chiefs, take the full field goal when available. Please get the best number."

"Undisputed" co-host Richard Sherman said Mahomes' playoff record isn't a fluke.

"I just know, any time I bet against Kansas City in a game like this, Patrick Mahomes goes and the game's close at the end, he takes over," Sherman said. "Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce, everybody turns it up a notch, and you look up, and they're somehow winning the game, and they're in the AFC Championship again.

"So until Josh Allen shows me and proves to me, 'Hey, I can go to the playoffs and I can beat Patrick Mahomes and I can keep going,' I gotta go with the Kansas City Chiefs."

Who are you backing, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs or Josh Allen and the Bills? Follow FOX Sports for the latest news in the NFL and other sports.