National Football League

2024 NFL odds: Will Lions or Vikings win huge NFC North showdown?

Published Oct. 17, 2024 3:17 p.m. ET

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

One of the best matchups of the NFL weekend features two teams that are strong contenders in the NFC.

The Vikings are coming off a bye following a victory over the Jets in London. We know what the Vikings defense is through five games: It is going to blitz all day (MIN leads the NFL in blitzes with 106). And as a result, the Vikes lead the league in pressures and pressure rate (32.6%).

Jared Goff has historically struggled with pressure up the middle, and what has made Minnesota’s blitzes so effective is Brian Flores disguising where the blitz is coming from. The counter, of course, is that the Lions have the top offensive line in the league, and against the blitz, Goff will have opportunities for explosive plays down the field with Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown in one-on-one matchups with the Vikings corners.

For Minnesota, I can’t get over the two meetings last year when Kevin O’Connell faced the Lions. Detroit won both, but the Vikings had a ton of success offensively, moving up and down the field. Nick Mullens threw for 411 yards with no run game, but he also threw four picks. The Vikings also threw for 7.6 yards per play in a December loss.

In the rematch in the final week of the season, the Vikings rang up 448 yards of offense (6.4 yards per play) in another loss. Mullens threw for 396 yards and Justin Jefferson dominated again (he had 18 catches, 333 yards and two TDs across both games).

Sam Darnold is an upgrade from Mullens, and we’ll see if Aaron Jones is back from the hip injury. Without him, the Minnesota offense looked pedestrian in the second half against the Jets.

If you believe the Vikings are the side, and you want to get out in front of the futures market, the Minnesota schedule is extremely favorable going forward. It'll for sure be favored in at least its next four games, and perhaps well into December.

If the Vikings win here, they’ll have the inside track on the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

PICK: Vikings (-120) to win outright

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

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