National Football League

2024 NFL Thanksgiving Day Best Bets: Back Lions, Packers to cover

Published Nov. 27, 2024 12:21 p.m. ET

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Turkey time equals pigskin time.

There are three NFL Thanksgiving Day games this season, including two division tilts in the NFC, and one warm-weather team visiting Wisconsin.

Let's get into my picks for the latest football holiday.

(All times ET)

THURSDAY, NOV. 28

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (12:30 p.m., CBS)

Chicago is coming off a heartbreaking loss in which it rallied from down 11 points with two minutes left to force overtime, then won the coin toss but couldn’t score and lost to the Vikings.

The last time the Bears suffered a brutal loss was the Hail Mary game in Washington earlier this season, and that sent them into a two-game tailspin.

Will the same happen here?

Detroit is the best team in the NFL, a covering machine, and it has a +177 point differential, which is 71 higher than the next team (Eagles). Of its last eight games (8-0), only two of them have come by single digits. The Bears and Lions are tied for third in the NFL in turnover margin (+9) and weirdly, Chicago is 4-7.

So what’s its record if it isn't generating turnovers?

I took the Lions -10 as soon as it came out, and I don’t mind it at -10.5. And when it hits -11 on game day, you might as well take that, too. Yes, I’m aware the Lions have lost their last seven Thanksgiving games. Two years ago they covered against the Bills; last year they were shocked by the Packers in a game in which Jared Goff fumbled three times.

PICK: Lions (-10.5) to win by more than 10.5 points

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (4:30 p.m., FOX/FOX Sports App)

Two NFL blue bloods playing on a national holiday sounds awesome … until you realize it’s Cooper Rush against Tommy Devito.

But wait! Devito got dinged up in last week's loss to the Bucs, and as of now, we don’t know if Drew Lock will be starting at QB for the Giants.

I’m not sure how much it matters. In no way, shape, or form should Rush be favored by more than a field goal against anyone. At the same time, it’s difficult to advocate for putting your after-tax dollars on a Giants team that appears to be quitting. It was still trying hard earlier this season when it lost at home to the Cowboys 20-15, but Dak Prescott played in that game. Malik Nabers caught 12 passes for 115 yards.

The total is appearing, as the Giants are limited offensively, and the Cowboys probably won’t return two kickoffs for TDs like they did last week. These are teams that rank 31st (Dallas) and 32nd (NYG) in red zone efficiency.

This will be a slow, boring game, and I think under 37.5 makes more sense than the Giants +4.5.

PICK: Under 37.5 total points scored

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Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers (8:20 p.m., NBC)

Let’s get the obvious out of the way: The warm-weather Dolphins are heading to Lambeau Field on Thanksgiving, where temperatures are expected to be in the low 20s or possibly teens, and the wind chill might make it colder.

With Tua Tagovailoa at QB, Miami is 0-4 in cold weather. Everyone remembers the egg they laid in Arrowhead last January in the playoffs.

It won’t be that cold on Thanksgiving, but expect Miami to struggle.

Miami’s struggles in the cold are already baked into the line. Are injuries? Tough to tell. The Packers are expected to be without top corner Jaire Alexander and wideout Romeo Doubs. If safety Xavier McKinney is down, too … well, that’s very bad news.

Green Bay tends to not blitz a lot and is just league average in pressure rate. Tagovailoa's numbers dip significantly when under pressure, and he has six turnover-worthy players in just 52 drop backs in those scenarios. If not pressured, he should shred the Green Bay zone.

The Packers defense has been up and down this season, and we don’t have a good gauge of it in recent weeks because it faced a backup QB last week, a rookie (Caleb Williams), and Jared Goff in a monsoon. A month ago, Trevor Lawrence lit the Packers up for 308 yards and six different receivers had receptions of 20-plus yards.

The more it snows and the colder it is, the more I like the Packers.

PICK: Packers (-3) to win by more than 3 points

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

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