National Football League

2024 NFL Week 11 picks, predictions: Back underdog Chiefs to cover

Published Nov. 13, 2024 10:26 a.m. ET

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Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Are the Chiefs that good or are they that lucky? That's one question that almost every NFL fan is asking right now.

Well, the jury might still be out. However, considering they're still undefeated 10 weeks into the season, it's hard to bet against them.

Keep reading to find out how I'm wagering on Kansas City, along with a couple other of my best bets for this weekend's slate.

(All times ET)

SUNDAY, NOV. 17

Browns @ Saints (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

The New Orleans Saints got their new-coach bounce last weekend after Dennis Allen was fired. They are still not a good team and needed 109 yards and two touchdowns from Marquez Valdes-Scantling to beat the Falcons by three. 

Those are 109 yards and two touchdowns they should not expect against the Browns on Sunday. 

The Saints are still severely depleted with injuries on offense, and they traded away their best cornerback to the Commanders. They're just not a talented team, despite the fact they beat Atlanta last week.

The Browns are off a bye. They’ve had two weeks to work on an offense around Jameis Winston. After having a hot performance one week, then a cold performance in his second start, I would expect to see something that looks average against the Saints off that bye. 

The Cleveland defense has played better since the offense started to play up to task, and once again, this unit will be healthy off the bye. The defensive line has a huge advantage against the Saints' offensive line. That pressure will lead to Derek Carr turnovers. 

I like the Browns to cover and win. 

PICK: Browns (+1) to lose by fewer than 1 point, or win outright

Would an undefeated season be bad for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs?

Chiefs @ Bills (4:25 p.m., CBS)

The oddsmakers have done it again: They’ve made Patrick Mahomes and his Chiefs underdogs. 

With that, the books have given the Chiefs an extra morsel of motivation for this weekend. 

Mahomes has been an underdog 14 times. He’s won 11 of those games and covered twelve. I don’t wager solely based on trends, but when I can explain the trend, I feel more comfortable using it as part of my handicap. 

The easiest explanation — the one I often use — is that the Chiefs care more about the games against better teams. Against better teams, they might be an underdog; against the Broncos at home, they are not. 

Kansas City couldn't care less about teams like the Broncos and Falcons, which is evident when the Chiefs are playing games as big favorites. They really care about beating teams like the Ravens, 49ers and Bills. 

We will get to see their best on Sunday against Buffalo.

The Bills will be without receiver Keon Coleman, and Amari Cooper is still questionable. If you’re down the top two receiving targets against K.C., it will be difficult to move the ball. The Chiefs defense ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt, which makes opposing offenses one dimensional. They get to rush the passer and bring their exotic pressures. 

Of course, when you're up against Josh Allen, not all of those game plans work because Allen is fantastic. And he can beat the Chiefs with his legs. But the Chiefs just need a few pressures to get home to control the Bills offense. 

I like the Chiefs to cover.

PICK: Chiefs (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points, or win outright

Herd Hierarchy: Cardinals fly in, Chargers return to Colin's Top 10 heading into Week 11

Bengals @ Chargers (8:20 p.m., NBC)

The Bengals have four wins this season. They’ve beaten the Raiders, Browns, Giants and Panthers. There are nine combined wins between those four teams. 

Cincinnati has six losses and all six losses are against teams that have winning records. While it’s not as simple as "Bengals beat bad teams but always lose to the good teams," it’s a good starting point to discuss this game.

Cincy has a fantastic offense but a bad defense. That is why teams that can move the ball — either via the run or pass — and take care of the football are scoring a ton of points on the Bengals. While the Chargers do not have a single receiver who’d start for the Bengals, this offense has taken off lately.

L.A. is up to 12th in offensive DVOA behind Herbert and its rushing attack. The Bengals are 27th in defensive DVOA and 26th in points allowed per game. 

I think the Chargers can move the ball on Cincinnati.

As mentioned above, the Bengals offense is fantastic, and if their record was 8-2, Joe Burrow would be an MVP candidate. But this Chargers defense might be the best unit in the NFL that no one talks about. It is first in the NFL in points allowed per game without having lots of stars. It just plays well together, and I think it will give the Bengals offensive line fits. 

L.A. limits explosive plays, which will be key to stopping the Bengals pass game.

Chargers to cover. 

PICK: Chargers (-1.5) to win by more than 1.5 points

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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