National Football League

2024 NFL Week 15 picks, predictions: Fade the Cowboys, back Raiders to cover

Published Dec. 13, 2024 11:12 a.m. ET

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Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Moving right along here with NFL Week 15.

The first thing I'm doing this week is fading Dallas. I go into my reasons why, but trust me when I say that Sunday probably won't be kind to America's Team.

Then, in the Steelers-Eagles matchup, there's a player prop that caught my eye. Let's dive into it.

(All times ET)

SUNDAY, DEC. 15

Cowboys @ Panthers (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

The Panthers are due for a win and it’s happening this weekend. 

They have played some good football the last three weekends but just haven't gotten the wins. The Panthers lost to the Chiefs by three points after overcoming a 20-6 first-half score. They lost to the Bucs in overtime the next weekend in a game they should have won. Then last weekend, the Panthers went to Philadelphia as 14-point underdogs, and without a drop on its final drive, Carolina would have won. 

That win finally comes this weekend with a cover.

The Cowboys roster is crippled with injuries and Dallas' season has spiraled downhill quickly. After it beat the Commanders in Washington, Dallas followed it up with a Thanksgiving win against the Giants. There was hope the season was saved and a wild-card spot was possible. 

Well, last Sunday, the Cowboys lost to the Bengals and all those dreams came crashing down. 

Not only did they lose, they lost in terrible, embarrassing fashion. It was so bad that their All-Pro pass rusher Micah Parsons was distraught on the sidelines. 

I do not like where the Cowboys are mentally heading to Charlotte.

Their overall roster is only slightly better than the Panthers currently. Dallas is without some offensive linemen, obviously down its quarterback and just lost another defensive starter in DeMarvion Overshown. The Cowboys are devastated, as they should be. 

Carolina's offense has kicked it into high gear the last three weeks with Bryce Young looking better. He’s played well against pressure and the blitz, and he’s clearly growing into the quarterback the Panthers wanted. 

I’m always slightly concerned about the Panthers defense, but the Cowboys offense is playing a bunch of backups. 

So give me the Panthers -3.

PICK: Panthers (-3) to win by more than 3 points

Can the Steelers pull off the upset vs. the Eagles?

Steelers @ Eagles (4:25 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

Earlier this season, Arizona’s rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.'s production was questioned after he had only one catch in his first NFL game. Arizona's offensive coordinator said it was on the forefront of their minds to get him the ball more often. 

The next weekend, Harrison Jr. had four catches for 130 yards. 

For the Steelers, wide receiver George Pickens was upset after having only two catches in a Week 2 win against the Denver Broncos. The following game, he had five catches and then seven the next game. 

After the Giants' 30-7 loss against the Bucs, their rookie receiver Malik Nabers was upset about the amount of targets he received. He was thrown the ball nine times, but a majority of those were in garbage time. In their next game, he had 13 targets and nine catches — up three from the previous week. 

Now, let's look at A.J. Brown for the Eagles.

He is frustrated with the lack of targets he saw last weekend against the Panthers. Just four targets, and he made catches on all four of them. Brown vented his frustration after the game and then Eagles defensive end Brandon Graham went on a radio show and elaborated about a possible rift between Brown and Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts. 

Graham walked those comments back, but nonetheless, Brown wants the ball more. And when receivers want the ball more — especially those with Brown's talent — they get the ball so it calms down the animosity. 

Receivers are simple people. They just need the ball to be happy. Any frustration or anger goes away with targets. So the Eagles will give him those targets.

PICK: A.J. Brown Over 5.5 receptions 

Raiders and A.J. Brown Overs are the best bets in Week 15

MONDAY, DEC. 16

Falcons @ Raiders (8:30 p.m., ESPN)

Can someone answer this question, please: How are the Falcons four-point favorites over any team in the National Football League? And before you say, "it’s the Raiders," please know that I’m aware. 

The Falcons are just not good right now, and it’s because of Kirk Cousins. They have lost four in a row and those were four games they could have won. A three-point loss to the Saints, a 32-point loss to the Broncos, a four-point loss to the Chargers where the Bolts only gained 50 second-half yards, and then last weekend in Minnesota. 

Kirk Cousins has thrown zero touchdowns and eight interceptions in those four games. It’s prompted people — including myself — to call for Cousins to be replaced by rookie quarterback Michael Penix. Needless to say, the Falcons are in turmoil and are quickly losing their lead in the division with Tampa Bay surging. 

The Raiders are not good. Clearly. But they are still playing hard, as evidenced by their recent performances against Tampa Bay and Kansas City. They are back home and will be energized to get on their own field. 

I do not think the Raiders will just lay down to let the Falcons easily win this game. Guys on their coaching staff are also fighting for their jobs, so they will have a good plan for the Falcons. 

With all this in mind, I like the Raiders to cover. 

PICK: Raiders (+4) to lose by fewer than 4 points, or win outright

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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Geoff Schwartz