National Football League

2024 NFL Week 9 picks, predictions: Back Browns to cover, Bucs to go Under

Published Oct. 31, 2024 9:39 a.m. ET

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

NFL Week 9 is here, folks.

And when it comes to this week's matchups, I'd describe some of them as interesting, to say the least.

But that doesn't matter. We're still going to find some good spots to wager a few bucks anyway.

Let's dive into which teams and players I'm backing for this weekend's slate.

(All times ET)

SUNDAY, NOV. 3

Chargers @ Browns (1 p.m., CBS)

I do not think the oddsmakers have accounted for the difference in this Browns team with Jameis Winston at quarterback versus what it had previously.

In his first start of the season, Winston led the Browns to an outright win over the Ravens while being a touchdown underdog. The Browns offense had its best game of the season, generating 401 yards and 29 points. The defense was also able to harass Lamar Jackson while keeping the Ravens rushing attack under season totals.

Cleveland is entirely different with a new quarterback. It’s a confident team and a roster we thought could be an AFC contender before the season is suddenly rejuvenated.

The Chargers are 4-3 with wins over the Panthers, Raiders, Broncos and Saints. That’s wins over Bryce Young, Gardner Minshew, Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler to be exact. Cleveland, on the other hand, is a different beast. And while the Chargers are good where it matters — quarterback, offensive tackle and on defense — I don’t think they are going on the road to win this game.

L.A. plays one style of football — they run the ball, play good defense and kick a ton of field goals — but that style doesn’t give the Bolts many outs in a tough situation.

The Browns win and cover.

PICK: Browns (+2) to lose by fewer than 2 points, or win outright

Jalen Hurts, Jameis Winston continue to climb up Mahomes Mountain

Cowboys @ Falcons (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

The Dallas Cowboys are lifeless, and it starts with their run defense. It’s bad.

They get pushed around by every opponent they play. This Dallas defensive line, especially inside, is small and doesn’t get much push. The Cowboys linebackers are just decent, but worse when the defensive linemen are getting displaced into their line of vision.

Dallas allowed 223 rushing yards to the 49ers, which marked the fourth time this season it has allowed at least 180 rushing yards and 28 points in a game. The Cowboys have only allowed those numbers in four games twice in a season. Now, their run defense is facing the Falcons, who are only 15th in rushing yards per game and 11th in yards per rush.

Some of that is their opponents (like the Chiefs, Saints and Steelers), but also the game script and situation. But when Atlanta does run the football, Bijan Robinson is a yard machine.

He’s at 4.7 yards per carry for the season but is up to 5.4 over the last four games. I’m taking Robinson to dominate in this game.

PICK: Bijan Robinson Over 72.5 rushing yards

Nick Wright is done with the narrative around the undefeated Chiefs

MONDAY, NOV. 4

Buccaneers @ Chiefs (8:15 p.m., ESPN/ABC)

The Chiefs are a team led by its defense, special teams and timely productive offense.

The Chiefs D is an elite unit this season. It is fifth in points scored per game while playing high-powered offenses like the Ravens, Bengals and 49ers. K.C. is second in rush yards per attempt, holding all opponents' starting running backs under their season average for yards per game.

It’s been a remarkable start to the season for this Chiefs defense, and now, it gets a Tampa Bay squad missing its top two receiving targets.

Tampa Bay started fast against the Falcons last weekend without Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, scoring 21 first-half points against a so-so Falcons defense. The Bucs managed just one more offensive score the rest of the game, as the Falcons defense figured out the Bucs' offensive plan without those receiving stars: run the football and use the running backs as receiving targets (the Bucs' two running backs had 16 combined catches).

Well, now the Chiefs know the plan as well and will be prepared to shut it down.

The K.C. offense also helps the defense because it tends to have longer drives at the end of games, eating up clock that can be used to score points by their opponents.

In short, don't expect Tampa Bay to score a lot on Monday.

PICK: Buccaneers Under 17.5 points scored

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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