National Football League

2024 Super Bowl LVIII betting update: 'There has been no shift to the Niners yet'

Published Feb. 3, 2024 4:00 p.m. ET

One week down, one week to go in the Super Bowl odds market.

It’s been quite an interesting few days already, with oddsmakers across the country noting that early bettors are solidly on the Kansas City Chiefs, which you might think would have sportsbooks siding with the San Francisco 49ers.

And you’d be right — if you’re only taking into account betting on the game itself: the point spread, the moneyline, etc.

"PointsBet currently would be rooting for the Niners to win," trader Will Radice said Friday, before reminding that there’s more than just betting on the game itself, most notably 12 months of people wagering on Super Bowl futures odds. "Factoring in the Super Bowl futures would flip that rooting interest to the Chiefs."

It’s an interesting spot to be in, and Pointsbet/Fanatics isn’t alone in that spot. BetMGM and Caesars Sports, among others, really need Kansas City at this point.

But a lot could change over the next week, with a flood of money still to come.

Radice helps break down the current state of Super Bowl betting, and we’ll also dive into early action on some popular Super Bowl prop bets.

Short Favorite

On Sunday night, San Francisco opened as a 1.5-point favorite at PointsBet, a Fanatics Experience. Shortly thereafter, the Niners dropped to -1, but they’ve since rebounded to -2.

However, as noted above, that rebound is not aligned with bettors’ wallets.

"The Chiefs are taking the majority of action, on both the moneyline and the spread," Radice said. "Seventy-five percent of moneyline bets are on the Chiefs, as well as 72% of spread bets. There has been no shift to the Niners yet."

Take a Ride on the Moneyline

As those betting stats demonstrate, a higher percentage of bettors are skipping past the point spread and just taking Kansas City to win the game outright, which makes a lot of sense. If the underdog Chiefs cover the mere 2-point spread, then they’ll probably win the game, as well.

Therefore, betting K.C. moneyline +110 — meaning a $100 bet would profit $110, for a $210 total payout — is more beneficial than betting K.C. +2 (-110) on the spread. A $100 spread bet would profit $90.81, for a $190.81 total payout — about 19 bucks less than the moneyline.

In either case, Radice isn’t surprised by first-week wagering on Super Bowl odds.

"The early action is about what I expected," he said. "The Niners struggled the last two weeks, needing comeback wins against both the Packers and Lions. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have dismantled the Bills and Ravens. It’s no surprise that the Chiefs are getting money as slight underdogs."

Are 49ers on upset alert against Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII?

It’s Never Under Til It’s Over

The Super Bowl total has been seeing tilted betting over the past week as well. PointsBet opened at 47.5 and has been fairly stable at that number.

But with Patrick Mahomes and Co. taking on a 49ers offense that has a ton of offensive weapons, early public opinion is clear.

"The public is on the Over, with more than double the bet count of the Under," Radice said.

Some Serious Coin

Super Bowl prop bets continue to be wildly popular. All the casual/recreational bettors, and more so, those who maybe bet once a year — or who’ve never bet in their lives — will want to have a little skin in the game.

And they’ll want to chalk up a win as soon as possible, even before the 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff on Feb. 11. Currently, at DraftKings, Super Bowl coin-toss props are among the most well-bet on the board.

Johnny Avello, director of sportsbooks operations for DraftKings, spoke to the substantial number of bets on the heads/tails prop and the prop of whether the 49ers or Chiefs win the toss.

"The coin-flip props are popular for two main reasons: There is no juice on either proposition — both have odds of even money — and for some who may want to get in on the action, but may not have as much interest for either [team] in the game, it’s a bet with a quick win-or-lose outcome," Avello said.

By bet count at DraftKings, the top four props tied to this pregame ritual are:

Coin Toss Outcome Tails. Bettors lean more into the "Tails Never Fails" philosophy. And as Avello noted, it’s an even-money proposition, meaning a $100 bet would profit $100, for a $200 total payout.
Coin Toss Outcome Heads. Of course, this has the same odds as tails. Because it’s a coin toss!
Chiefs To Win Coin Toss. Again, it’s even-money odds, but at the moment, more DraftKings customers are banking on Kansas City to win the toss.
49ers To Win Coin Toss.

The fifth-most-popular coin-toss prop is a little more intriguing and takes longer to settle up: Yes/No on whether the team that wins the coin toss also wins the game.

At DraftKings, bets on Yes are outpacing bets on No at the moment, while priced at -110, meaning a $110 bet would profit $100, for a $210 total payout.

Add up all those props, and a whole lot of money will be exchanged on Super Bowl Sunday, based on something that happens before either team even touches the ball.

Ain’t America great?

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.