National Football League

2024 Super Bowl LVIII odds: 10 betting trends to know for 49ers-Chiefs

Updated Feb. 7, 2024 8:21 p.m. ET

FOX Sports Research

The Super Bowl is finally here! And when it comes to gambling on the Big Game, we have you covered from a trends point of view.

FOX Sports Research took a deep dive into wagering on the Super Bowl by looking at various angles and trends that have historically been profitable.

After wading through the data, here are the 10 best overall trends that caught our attention.

Hopefully, these nuggets help you make informed wagers, but more importantly, they'll make watching the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers a little more exciting.

Let’s get into the trends!

1. Teams that score first in the Super Bowl have won the game 65% of the time

This is a staggering number that jumped off the page. Teams that get on the board first have won 37 of 57 Super Bowls. Looking at a more recent time frame, the team that scored first has lost in three of the last four Super Bowls, with the Los Angeles Rams being the only exception in the 2021 season.

Despite the recent dip, this has been a profitable trend. From 2011 to 2018, all but one of the teams that scored first in the game went on to win. Additionally, 29 of the first 45 Super Bowls saw the team that scored first be victorious.

The lone team from 2011-18 not to score first and win? The New England Patriots in 2017 (2016 season), who were famously down 28-3 in the third quarter but still managed to get a W.

2. Betting on the winner in the Super Bowl, more often than not, directly results in a cover against the spread (ATS)

Teams that win the Super Bowl are 48-7-2 ATS in the game, covering at an 87% clip. Since the 2009 season, teams that win the Super Bowl have gone a whopping 13-1 ATS (92.9%). The lone team to not cover in that span was the Rams in the 2021 season, winning by three points as 4.5-point favorites against the Cincinnati Bengals.

3. Kyle Shanahan trends

With Kyle Shanahan making his second appearance in the Super Bowl, we did a deep dive into his performance ATS and straight up (SU) as a head coach. Here's what we found:

Shanahan is 7-4 ATS (63.6%) and 8-3 SU (72.7%) in the playoffs for his career, the latter being the best win percentage of any coach who has not won a Super Bowl or NFL championship.
Shanahan is 4-2 ATS (66.7%) and 6-0 SU when a favorite in the playoffs, with the lone non-covers coming against the Green Bay Packers in the divisional round and against the Detroit Lions in the conference championship.
Shanahan is 4-2 ATS (66.7%) and 6-0 SU when playing at home in the playoffs, again with the lone non-covers coming this postseason.
Against the Packers, Shanahan recorded his first win when trailing by 5-plus points entering the fourth quarter, now 1-31 SU (3.1%) for his career in such situations (regular season and playoffs).
Against the Lions, Shanahan led the 49ers to a win after being down 17 at the half, tied for the largest comeback in an NFC Championship Game ever.

The San Francisco 49ers' inspirational road to the Super Bowl

4. Andy Reid trends

Coach Andy Reid is also no stranger to the Super Bowl, becoming just the fourth coach ever to make five appearances in the championship game. Here's a deep dive into how he's performed in various betting situations throughout his career:

Reid is 32-23-4 ATS (58.2%) and 29-30 SU (49.2%) as a head coach and as a 1-3-point underdog (regular season and playoffs, Chiefs and Eagles).
Reid is 24-16-1 ATS (60%) and 25-16 SU (61%) as a head coach in all playoff games in his career (Chiefs and Eagles).
Reid is 13-8-1 ATS (61.9%) and 15-7 SU (68.2%) as the Chiefs head coach in the playoffs.
Reid is 9-3-1 ATS (75%) and 6-7 SU (46.2%) as a head coach when an underdog in the playoffs (Chiefs and Eagles).
Reid is 3-1-1 ATS (75%) and 3-2 SU (60%) as the Chiefs head coach when an underdog in the playoffs.
Reid is 3-1 ATS (75%) and 2-2 SU (50%) as a head coach in the Super Bowl (Chiefs and Eagles).
Reid is 10-3 ATS (76.9%) and 9-4 SU (69.2%) as a head coach vs. the 49ers in his career (regular season and playoffs).

6. The team that rushes for more yards in the Super Bowl historically wins and covers

Look for who gets an early lead in the rushing total, as teams that win the rushing battle in the Super Bowl are an astonishing 40-14-3 ATS (74.1%) and 42-15 SU (73.7%). In the regular season, the 49ers were third in the league in rushing at 140.5 rush yards per game, while the Chiefs ranked 19th at 104.9.

It should also be mentioned that the Chiefs are second in the league in scoring defense, holding opponents to 16.8 points per game (including playoffs).

7. The team that allowed fewer points per game in the regular season has been on a tear

Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season have won seven of the last eight Super Bowls and are also 6-2 ATS (75%). Last year's Chiefs team broke a streak of seven straight teams winning the Super Bowl when allowing fewer points per game compared to their Super Bowl opponent.

Prior to that, the last team to win the Super Bowl while sporting a higher points per game average was the Patriots in 2015 (2014 season), who would have lost the game to the Seattle Seahawks had Malcolm Butler not intercepted the ball on the goal line with 20 seconds left.

This season, the Chiefs allowed 17.3 points per game in the regular season (second best in league), while the 49ers allowed 17.5 (third best in league).

Does Patrick Mahomes enter GOAT status if the Chiefs win the Super Bowl?

8. The NFC holds the all-time lead in Super Bowls won, but the AFC has dominated the spread in recent years

Since the NFL and AFL merged in 1970, the NFC holds a slight 27-26 (50.9%) lead on the AFC in terms of Super Bowl wins and is 26-25-2 ATS (51%) as well. However, over the last 11 Super Bowls, the AFC has gone 8-3 ATS (72.7%) and 7-4 SU (63.6%). The NFC teams to cover in that span were the 2013 Seahawks, the 2017 Eagles and the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

9. Patrick Mahomes is an underdog for third consecutive game

Against the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens, Patrick Mahomes was an underdog in consecutive weeks for the first time in his career. For a third consecutive week, Mahomes is an underdog, marking the first time that's ever happened in his six seasons as a full-time starter.

Below is an overview of how Mahomes has performed as an underdog in his career:

Mahomes is 12-5 ATS (70.6%) and 14-3 SU (82.4%) as a starter in the playoffs in his career. That cover rate is the best of any QB in the Super Bowl era (min. 15 starts), while the win percentage is also the best of any QB in the Super Bowl era (min. 10 playoff starts).
Mahomes is 2-1 ATS and SU (66.7%) as a starter in the Super Bowl in his career.
Mahomes is 11-1-1 ATS (91.7%) and 10-3 SU (76.9%) as an underdog in his career (regular season and playoffs).
Mahomes’ largest underdog spread was 4.5 points, done twice, on the road in a Week 2 matchup vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2018 and against the Ravens in the conference championship (Chiefs won both games).

10. Twenty-five teams have won both the coin flip and the game all-time in the Super Bowl. In eight of the last nine Super Bowls, the team that has won the toss has lost the game

Only 43% of teams all time have won the Super Bowl after winning the coin toss. Just another thing to keep in mind if you want to throw in a live bet.

The winner of the coin flip had an unlucky eight-year stretch of losing the game until the Chiefs broke the curse last year. The last time we saw two consecutive Super Bowls in which the coin toss winner also won the game was in the 2012 season (Ravens) and the 2013 seasons (Seahawks).

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