National Football League

2024 Super Bowl LVIII odds: Betting player props, best long-shot MVP bet

Updated Feb. 1, 2024 3:18 p.m. ET

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By Will Hill
FOX Sports NFL Betting Analyst

And then there were two!

The NFL playoffs have been exciting this season with lots of interesting storylines and narratives that made betting on the games even more intriguing than normal.

Now that we are at the granddaddy of them all, Super Bowl LVIII, the prop market is flooded with unique options. You can bet on the color of Gatorade, the length of the anthem and even a marriage proposal. 

However, the value I will focus on today is how to wager on the player prop market. Plus, I offer you a long-shot wager for a player I feel will be a strong contender for game MVP. 

So without further ado, let’s look at some smart plays worthy of sprinkling a couple of bucks on.

Player Props — Bet Overs as early as possible, bet Unders as late as possible

Most people bet for fun and don’t decide what to bet until they sit down on their couch right before the game. Also, most people bet on fun things to happen, meaning things they like to root for. Think, yards and points — not punts and incompletions. 

That being said, if you're going to bet the Over on props for the popular players like Patrick Mahomes, Christian McCaffrey and Travis Kelce, do it as soon as possible, like right now! They will go up! 

Mahomes' passing yards prop is currently 260.5 at DraftKings. By the time the game is about to start, that number will likely be close to or over 270. 

This strategy goes for all the popular players, If you prefer to bet the Under then wait as long as possible, and if you like the Over do it immediately. 

Craig ranks Top 10 players in Super Bowl LVIII

Super Bowl MVP —  Deebo Samuel (20-1) 

Super Bowl MVP is primarily, but not exclusively, a quarterback award. It's that way in the regular season, too. However, twice in the last five years, a wide receiver has taken home the trophy. 

Julian Edelman won the award for his performance against the Los Angeles Rams in 2018, and Cooper Kupp was voted MVP in 2021 in a victory against the Cincinnati Bengals. 

At 20-1, Deebo Samuel is worth a shot because not only is he a dynamic receiver, but he has over 1000 career rushing yards as well as 19 rushing touchdowns — including five this year. 

The running ability is so key here because it offers the possibility that Samuel will not only fill up the stat sheet but do so while detaching that production from the quarterback who the voters are usually inclined to give this award to. 

A big day running and catching the ball, in addition to perhaps a couple of touchdowns, and this 20-1 long shot has a chance of getting to the window. 

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.

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