National Football League

2025 NFL Week 18 betting recap: Books enjoy 'good start to the new year'

Published Jan. 6, 2025 12:24 p.m. ET

It took the better part of three months, and until the final weekend of the regular season. But it appears that NFL Week 18 odds finally saw the public betting masses get their worst result against the bookmakers in quite some time.

That’ll happen when a popular two-touchdown favorite — the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — never comes close to covering the spread. Ditto for the double-digit-favorite Green Bay Packers losing outright to the Chicago Bears.

"It was a good start to the new year. I’m so happy to have the regular season mercifully end," said John Murray, vice president of The SuperBook.

Oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap the weekend that was in NFL betting.

Underdogs Finally Bark

Tampa Bay had all the incentive in the world to wipe out an undermanned New Orleans outfit. The Bucs needed a win to guarantee the NFC South title and a playoff spot.

Oddsmakers expected a rout, with the Buccaneers closing as 14.5-point favorites. But Tampa actually trailed 16-6 at halftime and had to rally for a 27-19 victory.

"That game was massive for us," BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said, noting there were two significant six-figure Buccaneers wagers that went begging.

"The Bucs winning and not covering was good. The Bears winning outright was good," South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said from his perch in Las Vegas.

Chicago took its 10-game losing streak to Green Bay, where it was a 10-point underdog. Much like the Bucs, the Packers had something to play for: the NFC’s No. 6 seed and a Wild Card road game vs. No. 3 Tampa, rather than a trip to No. 2 Philadelphia.

However, Chicago led most of the game and won 24-22 on a 52-yard Cairo Santos field goal as time expired.

"The Bears outright was a big win for us," Murray said.

The Washington Commanders were also popular with the public betting masses, as 7-point favorites at Dallas. Washington won 23-19, but didn’t cover, another good result behind the counter.

Detroit Lions stifle Minnesota Vikings, clinch NFC No. 1 seed

Money Misses Mark

For BetMGM nationally, the two teams that took the most point-spread money on Sunday were:

Minnesota Vikings, a 3-point underdog at Detroit
Buccaneers, -14.5 vs. New Orleans

As noted above, Tampa won but didn’t cover. And the Vikes got rolled in the highly anticipated Sunday night showdown with the Lions. Detroit pulled away in the second half for a 31-9 victory.

The SuperBook also saw a lot of Vikings action, which is somewhat surprising, given that the Lions are now 37-10 straight up (SU) and 35-11-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 47 games.

"The Lions were a great result for us. We couldn’t write a bet on them today," Murray said. "The early games were great. We didn’t do well at all in the late window. The night game was huge. Overall, the day was fine."

At DraftKings Sportsbook, of the five teams that took the most point-spread bets, four didn’t cover:

Kansas City Chiefs +10.5 at Denver. Kansas City, resting a bunch of players, lost 38-0.
Buffalo Bills -3 at Patriots. Buffalo lost 23-16.
Buccaneers -14.5 vs. Saints. Tampa won 27-19.
Packers -10 vs. Bears. As noted above, Green Bay lost outright, 24-22.

Among the top five draws in point-spread money at DraftKings, again, four failed to cover the number:

Bucs
Vikings +3 at Detroit. Minnesota loses 31-9, as noted above.
Packers
Commanders -7 at Cowboys. Washington won 23-19.

Kansas City was a curious situation. Although the underdog Chiefs rested key players, they still drew action to cover the big spread at Denver. And there was even more interest on the Kansas City moneyline at +450 or so, to pull the outright upset.

"The Broncos winning was really good. There was a lot of Chiefs moneyline and a lot of people taking the points," South Point’s Andrews said.

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Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.