Bengals, 49ers riding high; Brady, Bucs offense out of sorts: 3 up, 3 down
As we do weekly, it’s time to see which squads have seen their stock improve or crumble after Week 12 of the NFL season.
UP
The most impressive win on Sunday was the Bengals going on the road to beat a physical and tough Titans team. The Bengals were able to win at the line of scrimmage, an encouraging sign heading down the back stretch of the season. The run defense should be singled out first, only allowing Derrick Henry to rush for 38 yards on 17 carries, good for 2.2 yards per attempt. When the Titans don't run the ball, they can not score even if Ryan Tannehill throws for a big yardage number like he did in this one.
The Bengals offense took some time to get into a groove and when it did, the outstanding Titans defense could not stop it. The Bengals' final three drives went as such: 14 plays and 60 yards for a field goal. 6 plays for75 yards for a go-ahead touchdown, and then 12 plays for 68 yards to close out the game. Now, the Bengals should get Ja'Marr Chase back in time for next weekend's matchup at home against the mighty Chiefs. The battle for the No. 1 seed in the AFC is on.
After four straight wins, the 49ers now sit alone atop the NFC West standings. The 49ers are +76 in point differential, and since Week 2 when Jimmy Garoppolo took over the offense, the Niners are sixth in offensive efficiency. Their defense is about fifth during that time while dealing with a ton of injuries, which continue to be a concern for the 49ers, who saw more starters leave on Sunday against the Saints.
If there's one worry, it continues to be Jimmy G, who's at best, is about average in the NFL. He does what is required of him but mostly no more. The Niners offense will continue to be run through their backs (Christian McCaffrey, etc) and getting the ball quickly into the hands of their skill position players.
On the other hand, is the Niners defense, which is balling and will continue to play well as they get healthy. The defense hasn't allowed a point in 94 straight game minutes and hasn't surrendered a second-half point in four straight games. San Francisco feasted on four straight teams not currently in the playoffs and now get the Dolphins, Buccaneers, Seahawks and Commanders in their next four games. It's a tough month-long stretch that could make or break their Super Bowl chances.
It's not pretty at times, but the Commanders keep winning with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. They've won 6 of 7 overall, with the first win of those wins coming with Carson Wentz at quarterback. Since Heinicke has taken over, the entire team has played with more fire and passion, and with improved results on the field. The defense is better and the offense has slowly improved.
'Both sides of the ball doing tremendous things' - Mark Schlereth and Adam Amin discuss the Commanders win
This team isn't great but does have a recent win against the Eagles. The Commanders now get back-to-back games against the Giants, followed by the 49ers, Browns and Cowboys. If they can beat the Giants twice and grab a win in the final three games they are a 10-win team and most likely are into the playoffs as a wild card. It's impressive for a team left for dead just six weeks ago.
DOWN
The Bucs are a poorly-coached team. When Bruce Arians stepped down as Tampa Bay's head coach in the middle of March, the collective football world was rooting for newly promoted head coach Todd Bowles. He was rightfully getting another opportunity as a head coach after his four-season stint with the Jets. Along with the promotion of Bowles to head coach, offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich was handed the full keys to the offense with Arians no longer in the building. It has not worked as planned, and while it's not all on the coaches, injuries, bad passes and dropped passes can be faulted, I have to come back to coaching as the main culprit for the Bucs' rocky season.
Their game management is poor. The Bucs coaching staff doesn't use timeouts properly and is uber-conservative. The game plans on both sides of the ball are often confusing and don't seem to align with their personnel, the opponent and the situation. Since my expertise is on offense, I'll stick with the issues there.
Kenny Albert and Jonathan Vilma discuss Nick Chubb's big rushing day in the Browns' victory over the Buccaneers
It's baffling how the Bucs appear to do zero self-scouting, which is process where you analyze what plays work and which don't. While there's a purpose in being multiple on offense, you should also tailor your game to what you do best. Yet, somehow the Bucs continue to do the same nonsense. Run the ball with a low-efficiency run (duo) on first down, run it again on second down and then hope Tom Brady saves them. Use almost no play-action passes even though Brady has made a killing over his career with that action. And what makes the performance even worse on Sunday in their loss against the Browns was they had made improvements in play calling against the Seahawks two weeks ago. Then after the bye week, they went directly back to the predictable play sequencing.
I know the Bucs defense allowed a game-tying drive and a game-winning drive in overtime, but I don't fault them much. They only allowed 17 points in regulation and had a defender slip to allow a big gain in overtime. The defense has done their best this season to keep this team in contention. The Bucs, while they might win their division, seem like no threat to make another Super Bowl.
The Ravens are an average football team. They are an untrustworthy group week-to-week and drive-to-drive. In parts of games they look unstoppable and then one drive later they look like a dumpster fire. Maybe all those years of not surrounding Lamar Jackson with difference-makers at wide receiver or injuries to the offensive line or Greg Roman's limited passing attack have caught up to them.
It's hard to square their efficiency numbers (5th in offensive DVOA) with what I see with my eyes and their scoring output. The offense is prone to large periods of not moving forward and untimely turnovers. Jackson will play like an MVP and then he won't. The defense can't hold a lead, as they collapsed once again on Sunday against the Jaguars. The defense, once one of the better units in the NFL, is now below average. Now, this is negative, and I understand that, but not all is lost. The Ravens are still 7-4 and can win the division. But they need more consistent play from their team.
The Wilsons
Zach Wilson and Russell Wilson had bad Sundays, and only one of them played in a game. Let's start with that Wilson. The Russell Wilson-led Broncos offense scored 10 whole points against the Panthers, one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Wilson was 19 of 35 for 142 yards and added eight total rushing yards. It got so bad that one of his teammates was screaming at him before he came onto the field. I think it's fair to say we've never seen a Hall of Fame career derail on the field like Wilson's has in his first season in Denver. It's bad. If he was anyone else, he'd be benched by now.
The Jets not only benched Zach Wilson this week, but they made him inactive for the game, meaning he didn't even get a jersey. In his place was Mike White, who was fabulous against the Bears. Now, the Bears defense absolutely stinks. It's awful. BUT, the Jets offense had a spark. It had some life. It looked juiced up. Everyone was happy. I need to see the offense against a better defense, but it's clear the offense responded well to Wilson's benching.
Read more Week 12 coverage:
- Seahawks get reality check with home OT loss to Raiders, Josh Jacobs
- Did Bucs cost themselves a win by not using timeouts late vs. Browns?
- With stars out, Bengals' supporting cast steals show in road win over Titans
- Mike White was the missing ingredient for Jets’ playoff push
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.