National Football League

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl LVIII: Prediction, odds, picks

Updated Feb. 8, 2024 1:27 p.m. ET

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The San Francisco 49ers (12-5) and Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) will match up in Super Bowl LVII. The 49ers are slight favorites (-1). 

The 49ers have been considered the best team in the NFL for most of the regular season. However, they have looked a bit pedestrian in the postseason as they beat Green Bay and Detroit by a total of six points. 

Meanwhile, the Chiefs were a bit (by their standards) below par this season as they lost six contests — the most in Patrick Mahomes' career. Nevertheless, they developed into a cohesive team during these playoffs as they defeated the top two AFC seeds on the road en route to Super Bowl LVIII. 

Which squad will be victorious in the final game of the 2023-24 NFL season?

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between the 49ers and Chiefs — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from our betting analyst Will Hill. 

49ers vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Lines

49ers vs. Chiefs Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: San Francisco (-1) 
• Pick OU: Under (47.5) 
• Prediction: San Francisco 23 - Kansas City 20

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Will Hill

This is a very tricky game considering the 49ers were the better team all season, while the Chiefs have been the superior team since the start of postseason play. 

I will go with the hotter team, as well as the team with the better quarterback and better defense, plus I’m getting a couple of points to boot. 

The AFC's best teams have done well against the best of the NFC this year, including three 49ers losses to the AFC.

This should be a hell of a game. I’m happy to have the best quarterback in the league with a 2-point head start. 

PICK: Chiefs (+2) to lose by fewer than 2 points (or win outright) 

Expects Chiefs to struggle against stacked 49ers offense in SB LVIII?

How to Watch San Francisco vs. Kansas City

• Game Date: Sunday, February 11, 2024
• Time: 6:30 PM ET
• Venue: Allegiant Stadium
• Location: Paradise, Nevada
• TV: Watch on CBS

49ers vs. Chiefs Recent Matchups

• In their past five head-to-head meetings, Kansas City has taken down San Francisco four times.
• In their last five head-to-head matchups, Kansas City has compiled 161 points versus San Francisco, while allowing only 102 points.

San Francisco Betting Info

• San Francisco's record against the spread in the regular season was 9-8-0, and it is 0-2-0 versus the spread in the playoffs.
• The 49ers are 9-10 ATS this season (regular season and playoffs) when playing as at least 1-point favorites.
• San Francisco had nine of its 17 games hit the over during the regular season. Meanwhile, it has exceeded the over in one of two games in the playoffs.
• The 49ers won 12 of the 17 games they were listed as the moneyline favorite during the regular season (70.6%). They are 2-0 as the moneyline favorite in the postseason.
• San Francisco has a record of 14-5 when it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -118 or shorter (73.7%), including the regular season and postseason.
• The implied probability for this matchup, considering the moneyline, gives the 49ers a 54.1% chance to win.

49ers Stats

San Francisco's Key Players

Offense

• Christian McCaffrey's rushing output this season includes 1,459 yards (first in the NFL) and 14 TDs. He is averaging 91.2 yards per game and 5.4 per attempt (second in the NFL).
• McCaffrey has been targeted 83 times in the passing game and has 67 catches (4.2 per game) for 564 yards (35.3 per game) and seven TDs.
• Brock Purdy has passed for 4,280 yards (fifth in the NFL), 31 touchdowns (third in the NFL) and 11 interceptions this year. He is averaging 267.5 yards per game and 9.6 per attempt, while completing 69.4%.
• He's also rushed for 144 yards (fifth on the 49ers) and added two touchdowns on the ground, while averaging 9.0 rushing yards per game.
• In the passing attack, Deebo Samuel, has totaled 892 receiving yards and seven touchdowns after pulling down 60 balls on 89 targets. Per game, he's averaging 59.5 yards and 4.0 receptions over 15 games.
• Brandon Aiyuk has 75 catches for 1,342 yards (seventh in the NFL) and seven touchdowns. He's been targeted 105 times in the air attack, and averages 4.7 receptions and 83.9 yards through 16 games played.

Defense

• On defense for the 49ers, Fred Warner has put up 132 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 2.5 sacks, and four interceptions in 2023.
• Nick Bosa has 53 tackles, 16.0 TFL, and 10.5 sacks this season.
• Dre Greenlaw has collected 120 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and 1.5 sacks this year.
• Charvarius Ward has five interceptions (fourth in the NFL) with 72 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and 23 passes defended.

Kansas City Betting Info

• Kansas City's record against the spread in the regular season was 10-7-0. It has an ATS record of 3-0-0 in the postseason.
• As 1-point underdogs or greater, the Chiefs are 3-0 against the spread in the regular season and playoffs.
• In 17 Kansas City games during the regular season, five of them went over the total. Meanwhile, one of three games in the playoffs have hit the over.
• The Chiefs won the only game they played as underdogs during the regular season, and have gone 2-0 in the postseason.
• Kansas City is undefeated in three regular season/playoff games this season when it is the underdog by -102 or more on the moneyline.
• The bookmakers' moneyline implies a 50.5% chance of a victory for the Chiefs.

Chiefs Stats

Kansas City's Key Players

Offense

• Patrick Mahomes II is averaging 7.0 passing yards per attempt (19th in the NFL) and 261.4 yards per game this year, completing 67.2% of his passes on the way to 4,183 total yards (sixth in the NFL), 27 touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) and 14 interceptions through 16 games.
• Mahomes has also rushed for 389 yards (second on the Chiefs).
• Isiah Pacheco has 935 rushing yards (leading the Chiefs) and seven rushing touchdowns, while averaging 66.8 yards per game and 4.6 per carry (11th in the NFL).
• Pacheco has also picked up 244 receiving yards (17.4 per game) on 44 catches (3.1 per game). He's been targeted 49 times and has caught two touchdown passes.
• In 16 games played this season, Rashee Rice has 79 catches (4.9 receptions per game on 6.4 targets per game) for 938 yards and seven receiving touchdowns.
• Travis Kelce has 984 receiving yards and five touchdowns from 93 receptions after getting 121 targets.

Defense

• Justin Reid has put up 3.0 sacks to go with 5.0 TFL, 95 tackles, and one interception through 16 games in 2023.
• Trent McDuffie has 3.0 sacks to go with 3.0 TFL and 80 tackles.
• L'Jarius Sneed has 5.0 TFL, 78 tackles, and two interceptions in the 2023 season.
• Chris Jones' season stats include 30 tackles, 13.0 TFL, and 10.5 sacks in 16 games.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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NFL - San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs - 02/11/2024