49ers vs. Falcons: Week 15 Preview for San Francisco
The San Francisco 49ers face off against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 15 and will try to end their 12-game losing skid. Niner Noise previews this contest and takes a look at X-factors, injuries, game information and much more.
Jan 20, 2013; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Roddy White (84) is tackled by San Francisco 49ers defensive back Chris Culliver (29) during the first quarter of the NFC Championship game at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
For the first time in three weeks, the San Francisco 49ers will actually play a meaningful game.
Outside of the proverbial draft-order discussion, of course.
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The Niners will visit the Atlanta Falcons in Week 15. And while San Francisco’s playoff hopes eroded a long time ago, the Falcons (8-5) are right in the thick of things in the NFC South. They’re currently tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the division. So Sunday’s contest has a great deal of meaning for Atlanta.
Meanwhile, the 49ers are still riding the franchise’s worst losing streak in team history. And back-to-back losses against the lowly Chicago Bears and New York Jets don’t inspire any confidence going into the Georgia Dome.
At this point in the season, it’s easier to simply assume head coach Chip Kelly and Co. will suffer another loss.
And that may be fine for those clamoring for the highest draft pick possible.
But what are the other storylines? Is there anything left for which the Niners are playing right now, outside of pride?
We’ll take a look at that, and more, in this week’s Niner Noise preview.
Dec 11, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) celebrates after throwing a 64-yard touchdown pass in the third quarter against the Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Week 15 by the Numbers
New week, same story. The 49ers are still dead last in total defense (393 points allowed, 5,399 yards allowed), run defense (2,220 yards allowed) and passing offense (2,302 yards gained).
These stats tell us what we already know — San Francisco is bad.
Surprisingly, the Niners actually boast the fourth-best rushing offense in the league though (1,780 yards).
Hey, that’s a good look at least.
But awaiting these lowly numbers are the Falcons. Atlanta’s defense is pretty putrid as well, we get that. The Falcons rank 28th in both points and yards allowed (345 and 4,892) and have the league’s worst passing defense, with 3,578 yards given up through the air.
Yet it’s not the defense San Francisco should be worried about.
Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan and Co. combine to give Atlanta the No. 3 overall offense, in terms of total yards gained (5,230). And they boast the league’s best scoring offense as well.
Granted, wide receiver Julio Jones (toe) will miss Sunday’s contest, per Pro Football Reference. But it isn’t as if Ryan lacks other weapons around him.
Look for fellow wideouts Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu to be factors against a suspect Niners defense.
Nov 13, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) runs the ball during the first half against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Quarterback Comparison
There couldn’t be more of a drastic difference between the signal-callers of each team.
On one hand, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan remains one of the elite quarterbacks in the league. He’s completing 68.3 percent of his passes on the year and has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 30 to seven — all amounting to a yearlong passer rating of 113.2.
Pro Football Focus ranks Ryan as the No. 3 overall quarterback ranked.
In comparison, PFF ranks 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick at No. 29 out of 36 qualifiers.
Kaepernick’s four-week stretch of above-average play came to a crashing halt versus the Bears in Week 13. And he didn’t exactly bounce back against the Jets last week either, going 15-of-26 for 133 yards and a touchdown, totaling an 84.3 passer rating for the effort.
There’s a good chance Kap opts out of his current deal with the 49ers after this season. Even if he stays, the Niners may cut him anyway.
So Kaepernick is, essentially, auditioning for the remaining 31 teams around the league. These final contests, including this one in Atlanta, will go a long way in determining what his value will be on the open market.
Dec 12, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; San Francisco 49ers former quarterback Steve Young takes a selfie with fans before the start of a game between the New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Steve Young Blasts 49ers Ownership
Earlier this week, Hall of Fame quarterback Steve Young appeared on the Tolbert and Lund Show on San Francisco’s KNBR 680.
And he didn’t mince any words about how the York’s ownership has put the 49ers into their current situation.
Here are some of Young’s comments (transcribed by our friend Rob Lowder over at Niners Wire):
You don’t have to win to make money. That’s (the York’s) A-game. Their equity value in the team is their A-game. It’s what drives them. It’s what drives most of the owners. It’s what matters. It’s what they think about. It’s what they talk about. And the B-game, is whether we win some games. It doesn’t mean that you don’t want to, or you don’t really want to, or it’s not really important. It’s just not the A-game. And so when it’s not the A-game, that’s the biggest issue with the NFL, is that success doesn’t track to success on the field. So that you’re not held accountable.
Young went on to comment how everyone involved in the organization should, in all intents and purposes, be jettisoned from the team unless he or she can prove to be a “part of the solution.”
We know this — Young simply echoed what the vast majority of Niners fans are feeling right now.
Dec 11, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Torrey Smith (82) remains down after a fall in a reception attempt against the New York Jets during the third quarter at Levi’s Stadium. The New York Jets defeated the San Francisco 49ers 23-17. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Significant 49ers Injuries
San Francisco has been bitten by the injury bug pretty hard in previous weeks. The team lost tight end Vance McDonald (shoulder) and center Daniel Kilgore (leg) to season-ending injuries.
This means tight end Garrett Celek and offensive lineman Marcus Martin will move up spots on the team’s depth chart, likely for the rest of the year.
Here’s the remainder of the 49ers injury report, courtesy of the team’s website:
Name | Injury | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Game Designation |
WR 13 Aaron Burbridge | Hamstring | LP | LP | FP | (-) |
DT 92 Quinton Dial | Elbow | FP | FP | FP | (-) |
DT 90 Glenn Dorsey | Knee | LP | FP | FP | (-) |
RB 24 Shaun Draughn | Ribs | FP | FP | FP | (-) |
LB 58 Eli Harold | Toe | FP | FP | FP | (-) |
QB 7 Colin Kaepernick | Neck | (-) | FP | FP | (-) |
LB 59 Aaron Lynch | Ankle | FP | FP | FP | (-) |
WR 82 Torrey Smith | Concussion | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
T 74 Joe Staley | Hamstring | DNP | DNP | DNP | Doubtful |
The two biggest injuries of note are to wide receiver Torrey Smith (concussion) and left tackle Joe Staley (hamstring).
Smith suffered his concussion in Week 14, falling awkwardly on his head while trying to catch a pass versus the Jets. He’ll be out, not having yet cleared the league’s concussion protocol.
Meanwhile, Staley will likely be replaced by offensive lineman Zane Beadles, who moved from left guard last week while Staley was out.
December 11, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers defensive end DeForest Buckner (99) sacks New York Jets quarterback Bryce Petty (9) during the third quarter at Levi’s Stadium. The Jets defeated the 49ers 23-17 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Offensive & Defensive X-Factors for the 49ers
The Falcons have an elite offense and a pretty bad defense. Meanwhile, San Francisco has…
Well, let’s just leave it at that.
RB Carlos Hyde
One of the only ways the 49ers can hold off Atlanta’s defense will be to keep it off the field.
That means winning the time-of-possession battle — something the Niners and head coach Chip Kelly aren’t good at.
November 20, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) hands off to running back Carlos Hyde (28) against the New England Patriots during the first quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
But if there is a shift to this approach, look for running back Carlos Hyde to be a part of the equation early and often. Hyde is closing in on 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career, so this game has more than enough individual motivation for the team’s No. 1 tailback.
WR Quinton Patton
With wide receiver Torrey Smith (concussion) out, fellow wideout Quinton Patton should receive a bit more attention.
Patton and quarterback Colin Kaepernick have a bit of a rapport — something Patton didn’t exactly have with former starter Blaine Gabbert. And the Niners’ fourth-round pick from the 2013 NFL Draft has already set career highs in receptions (35) and receiving yards (405).
Considering how weak the Falcons defense is, Patton could be in line for a productive day.
Oct 16, 2016; Orchard Park, NY, USA; San Francisco 49ers offensive tackle Trent Brown (77) against the Buffalo Bills at New Era Field. Buffalo beats San Francisco 45 to 16. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports
RT Trent Brown
Sunday’s contest won’t be fun for second-year right tackle Trent Brown.
He’ll face off against Falcons defensive end Vic Beasley, who has a team-leading 13.5 sacks on the season. And Beasley owns an 82.9 grade this season, per Pro Football Focus, highest on Atlanta’s defense.
DE DeForest Buckner and the 49ers Defense
The 49ers defense doesn’t stand much of a chance against quarterback Matt Ryan and Co. We get this.
But if there is a slight glimmer of hope, it rests with rookie defensive end DeForest Buckner.
Buckner totaled 10 tackles and two sacks last week against New York, en route to a Pepsi Rookie of the Week nomination. And he’s now tied for the team lead in sacks (five) with linebacker Ahmad Brooks.
If Buckner can pressure Ryan well enough, maybe — just maybe — San Francisco’s defense stands a chance.
NFL: NFC Championship-San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports
Game Information
Despite this bout being an East Coast game, the 49ers and Falcons will kick off at 4:05 p.m. ET on Fox.
To see if the game will broadcast in your area, check out 49ers.com’s game listing.
Fans wishing to stream the game can do so by subscribing to NFL Game Pass.
The days of San Francisco being favored are over now, and Odds Shark lists the Falcons as 13-point favorites over the Niners. And the 40.2 to 10.8 predicted score sounds about right too.
More from Niner Noise
Why the Falcons Win
Well, they show up.
OK, let’s get more serious. Atlanta doesn’t need its defense to do much. The 49ers are so offensively inept, the Falcons can stay in base formation and simply try to stop Carlos Hyde and the running game as much as possible.
Offensively, there’s little the Niners can do to stop quarterback Matt Ryan and the aerial attack.
Why the 49ers Win
Atlanta would have to have one of those cough-up games we saw the team have last year — a game in which nothing goes right on either side of the ball.
Match that with a better-than-adequate effort from both San Francisco’s offense and defense, and there’s the slightest of chances the 49ers keep it close enough to make it interesting into the fourth quarter.
And who knows? Maybe kicker Phil Dawson makes up for those two missed field goals that haunted San Francisco a week ago.