National Football League

The five best NFL MVP bets you can make for 2021

Updated Aug. 30, 2021 2:41 p.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

We’ve ranked over/under win totals and Super Bowl futures for the 2021 NFL season, and now, it's time for preseason MVP odds.

The most recent non-QB to win MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012, and the most recent defensive player to capture the honor was Lawrence Taylor in 1986. We know the winner of this award will almost certainly be a quarterback.

Let's dig deeper. The past four MVPs (and five of the past six) were the QBs of No. 1 seeds in the playoffs. So you’ve just got to find the likely No. 1 seeds and put your money on their QBs. Easy enough, right?

If it were that easy, we’d all be millionaires. But that guidance is still a nice way to approach the market.

Here are my five best preseason NFL MVP bets – four quarterbacks and one long-shot from another position – with all odds via FOX Bet.

Baker Mayfield to win 2021 NFL MVP: +3500 – bet $10 to win $360 total

Based on opponent win totals, the Browns play the second-easiest schedule in the NFL. Cleveland is going to win a lot of games.

This team is an easy pick for regression after winning 11 games with a negative point differential and going 7-2 in one-score games, but the offensive line is a top-10 unit in the NFL, Odell Beckham Jr. is healthy, and there isn’t a better 1-2 running back punch in the league.

If the rebuilt defense can beat Baltimore just once, this could be a 12-win team.

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Dak Prescott to win 2021 NFL MVP: +1500 – bet $10 to win $160 total

As I wrote in the offseason gambling blueprint, the Cowboys' offense has all the pieces in place for a monster season. Yes, that was last year’s vibe, too, but I didn’t take the bait, mostly because the masses did. (They zig, I zag; surely you know this by now!)

The defense is still leaky, so Dak will have to put up 400-plus yards on the regular to keep Dallas in games. Toss in Ezekiel Elliott’s declining level of play and a cushy schedule – plus the worst division in the NFC – and you’ve got the makings of an MVP run for the Dallas QB.

Josh Allen to win 2021 NFL MVP: +1100 – bet $10 to win $120 total

I’m firmly in the camp of "was last year kind of a fluke?" when it comes to Allen because he made one of the historic one-year jumps in NFL history from year two to year three.

But … his brilliant offensive coordinator (Brian Daboll) returns. As does his great receiver (Stefon Diggs). The Bills added Emmanuel Sanders, and the schedule is one of the 10 easiest in the NFL, based on Vegas win totals.

If Allen needs a closing kick to secure the award, his final four games are Carolina at home, at New England and back at home for Atlanta and the Jets.

Christian McCaffrey to win 2021 NFL MVP: +4500 – bet $10 to win $460 total

If you want to put some pizza money on McCaffrey becoming the first running back in 15 years to win the MVP, here’s the logic: The Panthers offense was league-average last season with check-down king Teddy Bridgewater, the second-toughest schedule in the NFL and a star RB for just three games.

C-Mac should put up video game numbers in Joe Brady’s offense. The Panthers' schedule is also extremely favorable, with the most rest in the NFL (two games versus opponents coming off MNF; zero opponents coming off a bye).

Kirk Cousins to win 2021 NFL MVP: +5000 – bet $10 to win $510 total

Here’s a boom-or-bust ticket that could be toast by Halloween.

The bad news first: Cousins is coming off a season with career highs in interceptions (13) and fumbles (eight). The good news: With fans back, the Vikings will once again have their massive home-field advantage (35-15 at home under coach Mike Zimmer); last year, they were 3-5.

But the best news is Cousins opens against six poor pass defenses, so there’s a chance he’s one of the MVP leaders come late October. The second half of the season features four prime-time games, and we know how Cousins has performed in those. A hot start is all but a prerequisite to cashing this bet.

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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