5 possible NFL Draft busts your team should avoid in the first round
If you're picking in the first round of the NFL Draft, you need to select a player that will provide a positive impact for years to come.
If only it were that easy.
The NFL Draft is an inexact science, and returns on teams' new investments won't necessarily be known for a year or two.
It's all a guess, but some guesses are more audacious than others. And some of those audacious guesses will be made the first round of the 2016 NFL Draft.
Every player has boom-or-bust potential. Here are five players that could go in the first round that have the highest potential to fall into the latter category.
The Eagles traded a boatload of picks to move up to No. 2 where they will — in all likelihoods in every dimension of space-time — select Wentz, the tall, athletic, strong-armed quarterback from North Dakota State that oozes confidence.
It's easy to forget that as recently as November, Wentz was considered a second, or even third-day pick. His rise to the top-pick-in-the-draft conversation is almost directly tied to his performance at practices at the postseason Senior Bowl, where he received rave reviews.
Allen Iverson has some thoughts on the value of practice that are applicable here.
In games, Wentz doesn't look like the man who can immediately turn the franchise's fate around. According to Pro Football Focus, he was the 16th best quarterback in this draft class when it came to accuracy percentage (72 percent), and he only completed 42.4 percent of his passes under pressure at North Dakota State, where he wasn't exactly looking at the Denver Broncos' pass rush.
Wentz has a cannon — he might have the best arm in the draft — and his persona has won over scouts. But his on-field product leaves a lot to be desired. While he might figure it out with the right coaching and system, the disparity between the newfound expectations and his game film is concerning.
There's no athlete quite like Henry in this draft. Physically, he's on a different level. At times, at Alabama, it was comical to watch him plow over overmatched defenders.
But while Henry might be a physical anomaly, he doesn't appear to be the all-around back teams would hope to land with a Top-60 pick, much less a first-round selection.
Yes, Henry is a short-yardage machine, but he's poor at changing direction. Most of the missed tackles against him came against undersized linebackers and defensive backs. Against players with similar weights, Henry typically lost. That's concerning.
The numbers look good: Henry had 28 touchdowns in 2015. But he also he also had nearly 400 rushing attempts.
The 21-year-old Florida native is also a weak pass blocker for his (or any) size, and he provides almost no threat as a pass catcher, so he's off the field on third down.
It's hard to believe that Henry the powerhouse won't have some value in the NFL, but it's unlikely that will be an every-down back in the NFL.
If this was a track and field draft, Fuller would be a Top-5 pick. He boasts tremendous deep speed, and that will always be needed in the NFL. But Fuller also boasts one of the worst drop rates in this draft, as he let 13.9 percent of catchable balls fall to the ground in 2015, per Pro Football Focus.
Worse yet was Fuller's drop rate on deep targets: Fuller was targeted 100 times in 2015, and 30 percent of those times, he was deep downfield. On 22 percent of those deep throws, he dropped the ball. Defenses might have to respect his speed, but they don't have to respect his hands. You need to make defenses fear both to be a viable threat.
Fuller's best NFL comparison? Notorious first-round bust Ted Ginn Jr. Enough said.
Few can boast the physical talents of Jones, who looks like a world-beater at times on film. But effort is a huge concern. Too often in his college career he appeared to skate on his natural ability. The inconsistent play is compounded by Jones' lack of burst off the line of scrimmage.
Still, some have projected Jones as a high first-round pick. If he's selected in the first two rounds, he'll be expected to make an immediate impact at the NFL level. Considering that he had a hard time making a consistent impact at the college level, it's easy to see that scenario play out in the pros as well.
A two-sport star at Miami, Burns, like Fuller, has speed and athletic ability that's hard to match. And like Jones, he often skated on it against high-level competition.
Burns is a raw talent, despite being a key player for three years at Miami. Technique is an afterthought, and while he's a ballhawk, he's often more concerned about the ball than the man he's supposed to cover. That won't fly against NFL quarterbacks.
Teams see the potential in Burns — he has the frame, the speed, and the athletic ability to be a dynamic defensive weapon. But that potential existed at Miami and never manifested itself. Against much tougher competition at the NFL level, will he be able to turn on the light?
