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5 Reasons Tennessee Titans Will Win AFC South

Updated Mar. 5, 2020 1:45 a.m. ET

Fansided, Luke Sims/FanSided via NFL Spin Zone

Dec 18, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; A Tennessee Titans fan shows support during the second half of the game against at Arrowhead Stadium. The Titans 19-17. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

The Tennessee Titans are the team to beat in the AFC South, pulling ahead of the meager competition.

The Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans are both 8-6 and vying for the top spot in the abysmal AFC South, but only one of those two teams has what it takes to make it to the playoffs. The loser will be on the outside looking in, likely finishing with a record too poor to secure a Wild Card spot.

The AFC South is not a tough division to win (unless you’re the Jacksonville Jaguars), but it does require trouncing the division opponents consistently. The Texans, with a 5-0 record at this point in the division, have an edge over the Titans. By comparison, the Titans sit at 1-3 in the division, having only beaten the lowly Jags.

That record will be crucial if the teams remained tied at the end of the season, but with a critical Week 17 matchup between the Titans and Texans in Nashville, it’s unlikely they end up with the same record. The final game could be the deciding factor. The Titans will have to win out to come ahead of the Texans.

Tennessee controls their own destiny and will have chance to prove they’re worthy of no longer being considered a cellar dweller. It may be tough, but the Titans have to get in straight-up with a better record than the Texans, as noted by ESPN’s Paul Kuharsky.

After a slippery 19-17 escape against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 15, the Titans remain a contender and have a chance to unseat the Texans as division champs. All that stands in the way of the Titans are the Jaguars again and the Texans.

Here’s why the Titans can sweep the Jags and make it into the playoffs by beating the Texans.

Oct 27, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Titans wide receiver Rishard Matthews (18) runs after a catch in the first half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

5. Easier Schedule

This is not a “sexy” reason that the Tennessee Titans will come out ahead but it is a fact. All that lays in the way of the Titans are the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Texans. The Jags are a perennial pushover and are struggling to win games at 2-12.

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The Texans are a bit tougher. At 8-6 they have a real shot to finish with their third-straight 9-7 record or even their second 10-6 record in franchise history (assuming the Titans don’t beat them in Week 17). But the Texans have to get by the struggling Cincinnati Bengals first.

It may be easy to overlook the 5-8-1 Bengals and write them off as non-contenders. That would be a mistake. These are the same Bengals that made the playoffs the last five seasons and have had double-digit wins since 2011. It’s an off year for the team, but they aren’t incompetent. Compared to the Jaguars, they look like the New England Patriots.

The Titans decimated the Jaguars on national television earlier this season, even resting quarterback Marcus Mariota late in the 36-22 beatdown. Meanwhile, the Texans escaped with a win against those same Jags, 21-20, with a late comeback in Week 15. Assuming the Titans can take care of business against the Jags, the responsibility to win falls on the Texans. If they lose to Cincy (which is quite possible) the Texans will be in a hole entering the final Week 17 game against the Titans.

Nov 20, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota (8) passes the ball in the first quarter the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

4. Mariota > Savage or Osweiler

Brock Osweiler is looking more and more like a waste of money. He hasn’t been terrible, but he also hasn’t been $72 million good. He was benched in favor of Tom Savage in Week 15 after he threw two interceptions to a Jags team that hadn’t had an interception since Week 4.

No team that has a chance of making a playoff run is still struggling to figure out who will play quarterback. The Texans lucked into the playoffs with Brian Hoyer in 2015 and were immediately bounced. In 2016, they aren’t even solidly behind one player.

Meanwhile, Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota is tearing it up in his second season. Mariota has the 10th best passer rating in the NFL (96.7) and has just nine interceptions compared to 25 touchdowns while completing 62.2 percent of his passes. At this point, even with a couple of poor games, Mariota is almost the definition of an efficient quarterback. He has completely absorbed Mike Mularkey‘s offense and is turning in a fine performance week in and week out.

In the modern NFL a team can only go as far as its quarterback. For the Titans, that appears to be quite far indeed. The Texans, not so much. It’s worth noting that the Texans stymied Mariota in Week 4, limiting him to his third-lowest output of the season. The Titans and Mariota will be looking for revenge in Week 17.

Dec 18, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota (8) hands off to running back DeMarco Murray (29) during the first half against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

3. Running Game in Cold Weather

It isn’t all about the quarterback for these two teams, though. It’s also about the running game and the Tennessee Titans “exotic smashmouth” is simply doing more than the Texans’ rushing attack behind Lamar Miller.

The story of the Week 17 matchup could well be that the Titans boast the third-best rushing attack (2,026 yards total and averaging 4.7 yards per carry) against the fifth-ranked (1718 yards averaging 4.2 yards per attempt) Texans rushing attack. Derrick Henry and DeMarco Murray are a formidable one-two punch, but Miller has been able to do it all for the Texans this season.

The Titans rushing attack is just getting started, though. Posting 148 yards or better each of the last three weeks, the Titans have been steadily getting stronger as they gear more and more to the run. The passing attack is capable of balancing the ground game as well, allowing flexibility against opponents.

Miller and the Texans haven’t cracked yet, but Week 15’s poor 79 rushing yards may have finally shown that it can’t hold up forever without a balanced offense. The Jaguars were able to keep the Texans rushing attack all wrapped up for four quarters, effectively forcing the Texans to throw. This happens rarely to the Texans (just three games with less than 100 yards on the ground), but showed that stopping the run makes them far more vulnerable.

On any given week, the Titans simply have a better offensive approach. Things are coming together for the Titans and they look fresh and ready to use their strategy to come out ahead on any given week. Meanwhile, the Texans offense looks one bad game away from collapsing. That game may have already come in Week 15.

Dec 11, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Denver Broncos tight end A.J. Derby (83) fumbles the ball after catching a pass late in the fourth quarter turning the ball over to the Tennessee Titans during the second half at Nissan Stadium. Tennessee won 13-10. Mandatory Credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports

2. Titans Found an Identity

It can be easy to overlook the “soft strengths” of a team, but they are often as important as any on-field talent. With Ken Whisenhunt dismissed in 2015 and a struggling 1-3 start to 2016, it’s fair to say that the Titans didn’t have an identity until part of the way through this season. Yet they have found one and are becoming more and more like a gritty, determined, willful team with a “can-do” attitude each and every week.

The little gritty team that could is somehow getting by. The Titans have won four of the last five games and have done so in different ways. Perhaps most impressive was the 13-10 win over the Denver Broncos in Week 14 as the Titans scrambled to snag victory on the strength of the run game with the passing attack weakening. The Titans ultimately finished the day with fewer than 100 yards passing, but still managed to rack up an impressive 180 yards on the ground (their fourth best mark of the season).

Head coach Mike Mularkey praised his offense for being able to find two different ways to attack and win over the last two weeks, saying via Titans Online, “our offensive staff has found ways to attack two different defenses, very good defenses, and found ways to win.”

The adaptability of the team has been beneficial in finding ways to scrape by. That is exactly what matters in the NFL, though. Wins matter any way a team can get them. The Titans have become a hard-nosed, gritty team that just finds ways to get by. That’s exactly what is needed during the month of December. Teams that can duke it out somehow find ways to win and the Titans are among the grittiest teams in the NFL, if not the grittiest. They can take a couple on the jaw and still come back swinging and claw back to take victory.

Nov 13, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Mularkey walks off the field following the game against the Green Bay Packers at Nissan Stadium. Tennessee defeated Green Bay 47-25. Mandatory

1. There’s Hope for These Titans

It was mentioned before in this piece, but it bears repeating; the Tennessee Titans are coming together and the Houston Texans seem one bad game away from falling apart. At the end of the day, that may be all that matters.

The Titans are playing the role of underdog, not having won a division crown since 2008. While it may not be the divine intervention mentioned by Titans writer Jim Wyatt, that kind of hope is a powerful, driving force for teams—just ask the 2012 Baltimore Ravens. The Titans are suddenly good again for the first time in the better part of a decade, and the team can sense a window opening.

Becoming division champions and getting into the playoffs can be a driving force for NFL teams. The Titans can see the finish line and envision themselves in themselves in the postseason for the first time in almost a full decade. There are few teams with as much to play for and as much to prove right now. The Texans are one of them, but the 2016 season isn’t doing much more than proving their mediocrity.

There’s a chip on the shoulder of the Tennessee Titans and they are close to proving the NFL that they are more than just a rebuilding team: they’re contenders. With two weeks left to go, expect the Titans to prove it.