5 reasons the Miami Dolphins will make the playoffs without Ryan Tannehill
With quarterback Ryan Tannehill still possibly out for at least the rest of the regular season, here are five ways the Miami Dolphins can make the playoffs.
The Miami Dolphins escaped with a 26-23 win over the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, and they’ve now won seven of their last eight games to put themselves in the thick of the AFC playoff race at 8-5.
But quarterback Ryan Tannehill was injured on a low hit during the third quarter on Sunday, and it was initially feared he suffered a torn left ACL. Some clarity came on Monday, with ESPN’s James Walker reporting Tannehill sprained the ACL and MCL in his knee. That makes a return this season possible, particularly for the playoffs with a reported second opinion to come on Tuesday, but the Dolphins obviously have to make it that far first.
The Dolphins may need to win out to earn a playoff spot, and winning two of their remaining three games looks absolutely mandatory to make that happen. With Tannehill at least in line to be out for the rest of the regular season, here are five reasons the Dolphins will make the playoffs.
5. Opportunistic Defense
The Dolphins’ defense has not been particularly stinging scoring-wise, but they have forced multiple turnovers in five of their last six games.
Upcoming games against the New York Jets (Week 15) and Buffalo Bills (Week 16), with Bryce Petty and Tyrod Taylor under center respectively, should put Miami’s defense in line to take advantage of multiple mistakes. Taylor’s security as Buffalo’s starting quarterback is hardly secure right now, and the replacement options (E.J. Manuel and Cardale Jones) are not impressive.
The Dolphins will need more from their defense now, and going into the next two games the unit will be in line to succeed.
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4. Matt Moore is a suitable replacement
Tannehill has started every game for the Dolphins since being drafted in 2012, and Matt Moore has just 35 pass attempts over that span. But a closer look shows there may not be a substantial drop-off between the two signal callers.
Quarterback wins are not necessarily a great statistic, but Tannehill is below .500 (37-40) as a starter. A deeper look at numbers shows Tannehill with a career completion rate of 62.7 percent, and career passer rating of 86.5 and a 106:66 touchdown/interception ratio. Compare that to Moore, who has completed 58.9 percent of his passes with a 79.4 career passer rating and a 33:28 touchdown/interception ratio, and there doesn’t appear to be a lot of drop-off.
Moore will not be asked to do much, but Tannehill had thrown the ball more than 34 times just once in his last nine full games this season. So Miami’s offensive formula will not change, with the quarterback taking a backseat as a game manager.
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3. Jay Ajayi is the offense
Ajayi’s production on the ground has slowed down dramatically since back-to-back 200-yard rushing games in Week 6 and Week 7. He has not even rushed for 80 yards in five straight games now, with just one rushing touchdown in that span.
But Ajayi has remained heavily involved in Miami’s offense, with at least 80 total yards in three of the last five games and at least 18 touches in all five contests. With Matt Moore playing quarterback and the specter of bad weather football over the next two weeks, the running game and Ajayi will be the focal point of the team’s offense. That is the way it has been over the last two months anyway, not coincidentally as a winning approach, so as previously mentioned not much will change for the Dolphins now.
Ajayi is now arguably Miami’s most important player. If he steps up, behind a hopefully fully healthy offensive line, the Dolphins have a good chance to make the playoffs.
Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
2. Adam Gase knows what he’s doing
Since the Dolphins’ slow start, Gase has proven very capable in his first season as an NFL head coach. Dating back to his time as quarterbacks coach (2011-2012) and then offensive coordinator (2013-14) for the Denver Broncos, Gase is building a solid resume working with a wide range of skill sets at quarterback.
That diverse group of signal callers notably includes Tim Tebow, Peyton Manning and Jay Cutler, the latter of which arguably had the best season of his career with Gase as his offensive coordinator in 2015.
Losing Tannehill for any amount of time is obviously not ideal, particularly with the Dolphins’ playoff chances in the balance. But Gase, along with offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen, should put Moore in good position to succeed as the starter for as long as he needs to be. Under the current circumstances, Gase is one of the better coaches to have around as the Dolphins try to win with a quintessential backup quarterback.
Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA Today Sports
1. The remaining schedule is a cakewalk
Miami’s next two games are on the road, against the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills, and bad weather is virtually guaranteed in both contests. But the Jets are playing out the string at 4-9, and with Bryce Petty as their starting quarterback, so winning games will be a challenge. The Bills have fallen to the fringe of the AFC playoff picture with a 6-7 record, with job security questions around head coach Rex Ryan and starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor.
In Week 17, the Dolphins will welcome the New England Patriots to Hard Rock Stadium. The game will probably matter a lot to them, as long as they take care of business against the Jets and Bills. The Patriots may have nothing at stake by then, in terms of playoff seeding or a possible first-round bye, and even if head coach Bill Belichick dismisses the notion of resting players in that scenario it will make sense to do so.
Tannehill’s injury has created a problem for the Dolphins, but it’s nothing compared to the turmoil surrounding both the Jets and the Bills right now. Wins in Week 15 and Week 16 should come relatively easily, however ugly it might look all things considered, which sets up a possible “win or go home” scenario for the regular season finale. If New England doesn’t play their best players for that entire game, the odds the Dolphins get a win they might need will go up substantially.
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