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The 5 stunning NFL betting trends you need to know so far

Updated Sep. 14, 2021 12:07 a.m. ET

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Week 1 is almost in the books, and there are already some incredible trends emerging from the betting data.

Here are five betting trends you need to know through the first 15 games of the 2021 NFL regular season – where underdogs and unders have ruled so far, while road teams aren't having much of a problem yet (all odds via FOX Bet).

1. Underdogs are covering …

If you placed a wager or two in Week 1, you might have gotten the sense that underdogs were performing well – quite, quite well, in fact. Through the first 16 games of the 2021 NFL season, underdogs are 12-4 against the spread, covering in a whopping 75% of games. 

Meanwhile, most of the favorites who have covered did so in games that were expected to be close. The Denver Broncos (-2.5), Carolina Panthers (-3.5) and Seattle Seahawks (-3) all covered as favorites of less than four points; interestingly, two of those three covers against the spread came on the road.

Only the Los Angeles Rams (-9) took care of business as a heavy favorite.

2. … and winning outright

Underdogs didn't just cover at an eye-popping clip to start the season. They also pulled off nine outright upsets across the country, with the biggest coming in Buffalo.

Add it all up, and someone who bet $10 on the underdog to win in every game would have been up just shy of $60 on the week, turning $160 into $219.80 (or a 37.4% return on your investment).

3. Under pressure

Through Sunday, the total had gone "under" (meaning the two teams combined to score fewer points than the total over/under line) in nine of 15 games, a rate of 60%. It's a less astonishing trend, to be sure, but betting the under on every game still would have been profitable in Week 1 … up until the Ravens and Raiders blew right past their total of 50.5 in overtime. Still, unders cashed 56.25% of the time, which isn't bad.

In a fun little twist, the Cleveland Browns and Kansas City Chiefs went over the highest total scoring over/under of the week, which was set at 54.5; the Browns and Chiefs combined for 62 points in Kansas City's 33-29 victory.

Perhaps "under" simply was the magic word in Week 1. 

4. Home-field advantage is not quite back

Fans are back this NFL season, and we could not be happier to see them. Yet the roar of the crowd failed to intimidate road squads in Week 1, as the away team covered in nine of 14 games (64.3%).* 

*Not including Packers vs. Saints, which took place in Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida.

Somewhat bizarrely, though, half of the home covers came from teams that were moneyline underdogs to win outright.

5. Public enemy number one

Here's one more tidbit to keep in your back pocket: The public is still finding its bearings this NFL season.

According to our data, only five teams receiving more than 50% of the bets against the spread in their respective games covered: Denver, Carolina, Seattle, the Rams, and the Chargers. (There was also one game that saw exactly half of the bets and the money wagered on each side – Eagles at Falcons.)

The Green Bay Packers were the most striking example of a public team going down, as 80% of bets and 81% of the money were on Aaron Rodgers & Co., while the Ravens received 78% of bets and 79% of the money before losing outright to the Raiders. 

On the flip side, there was one "smart money" play, with 47% of bets but 61% of the money on the Miami Dolphins to cover against the New England Patriots. 

Any time there's greater than 10% more money than there is bets on a given team – 14%, in this example (61% minus 47%) – that's a good indication that big, big money from savvy bettors is coming in on that side.

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