National Football League

Aaron Rodgers is who the Jets want. Derek Carr is who they need. So now what?

Updated Feb. 21, 2023 2:52 p.m. ET

If the New York Jets could have their way, they'd probably already have terms in place for an Aaron Rodgers trade. But given that Rodgers is doing his annual Magical Mystery Tour to find himself, the Jets don't know for sure if Rodgers wants to be an NFL quarterback anymore, let alone the Jets quarterback. (Or a Packers quarterback.)

First, he has to return from his darkness retreat.

So in the meantime, New York has done the sensible thing. The Jets have begun sniffing around former Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr. The Raiders released Carr on Feb. 14, which freed him to get an early start on free agency. While the other free agents must wait until March 15 when the new league year begins, Carr has already begun meeting with teams, including the Jets, according to multiple reports.

Carr should get the first pick of quarterback-needy teams — in theory. But of course, he's not the top option. Rodgers is. So that complicates things for teams like the Jets. Everyone is waiting to see if Rodgers hits the market. Everyone, including Carr.

Because there's really no considering Carr without Rodgers. The truth is that Carr is a middling quarterback. He has thrown for 30 or more touchdowns in a season just once — and that was back in 2015. In 2022, he completed 60.8% of his passes, a figure that might have been impressive a decade ago. But now, that percentage ranks 30th among passers with 50 or more attempts. He was right there alongside Russell Wilson (60.5%) this past season.

Even with his statistical shortcomings, Carr will demand a substantial salary, even if he won't require an exchange of draft assets like acquiring Rodgers would. It's easy to imagine Carr getting about $30 million per year. Carr, who turns 32 next month, is seven years younger than Rodgers — but can you really be sure that Carr will be a starting QB for more than two years? I don't think so.

Carr isn't a first-place prize. He's a participation trophy.

Would Derek Carr make Jets a playoff team?

Eric Mangini joins Nick Wright, Chris Broussard and Kevin Wildes to discuss what signing Derek Carr would do for the Jets' playoff chances.

The funny thing is, that's the kind of quarterback the Jets really need. Don't get me wrong. They want a quarterback like Rodgers. That's why they drafted Zach Wilson with the second overall pick in 2021. Coming out of BYU, Wilson flashed traits that the Jets thought might someday make him the next Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes. It's abundantly clear those comparisons were overwrought and that Wilson would be lucky to develop into a starting-caliber quarterback, let alone an elite one.

The point is that New York wanted to find the Next Big Thing (Wilson). And now they have to decide whether they're going to wait for The Big Thing Nearing Retirement (Rodgers). Or if they're going to settle for The Middling Guy (Carr).

If the Jets wait on Rodgers, they might miss out on Carr. That said, Carr's market doesn't seem robust, given the quiet surrounding his prospects. It seems as though everyone is waiting to see what Rodgers will do. But eventually, some team might get impatient. And it might snatch up Carr.

The good news is that there's another quarterback who will hit the free-agent market: Jimmy Garoppolo. The bad news is that there will be no shortage of suitors for Garoppolo, particularly if Rodgers doesn't leave Green Bay. If the Jets pass on Carr, Rodgers stays put (or retires) and Garoppolo signs with the Raiders (or some other team), then who is left for the Jets? Andy Dalton or Baker Mayfield. Maybe (but probably not) Geno Smith or Daniel Jones.

Is Daniel Jones worth $45M per year to Giants?

James Jones joins Craig Carton to discuss if this price is too high for a quarterback who threw 15 TDs last season, despite a playoff appearance, and decide what the Giants may do in response to Daniel Jones' ask.

It's one hell of a predicament. I feel like I need a darkness retreat to figure out what the Jets should do. Maybe GM Joe Douglas — who is actually making the decisions — feels the same.

The Jets can overpay for a decent quarterback who will likely lead their team to the playoffs in 2023. Carr is what the 2022 Jets needed to make the postseason. But if they add Carr, will the 2023 Jets win games in the postseason? Unclear. Carr has made the playoffs just twice in his nine-year career. He's 0-2. So New York would instantly upgrade at quarterback. But it's unlikely to truly change the trajectory of the franchise. Carr isn't winning a Super Bowl, right?

Trading for Rodgers has its risks, too. He had one of his worst seasons in 2022, and he's 39 years old. The Jets might end up thinking they're getting 2013 Peyton Manning (55 TDs) and instead end up with 2015 Peyton Manning (9 TDs).

The bottom line with Carr is that one QB in hand is better than two in the bush. Rodgers seems like a tantalizing option — but maybe a disaster waiting to happen. Not only is Rodgers going to be fickle, but he might also be finished. He could retire. Or he could keep playing and regress quickly.

So if Carr wants to ride with New York, then that might be the right decision.

The Jets can lock him up for two or three years, paying him about $30 million per season. If Wilson continues to fail in development, New York can draft another quarterback next year. But Carr fills the gap to keep this team competitive, which is what this roster deserves: competence at quarterback.

Carr is the bare minimum of what the Jets need. But maybe the bare minimum will have to do — at least for the next two years.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @McKennAnalysis.

Top stories from FOX Sports: