National Football League

AFC Championship preview: Bills vs. Chiefs breakdown, game prediction

Published Jan. 22, 2025 10:20 a.m. ET

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have known all season that the road to the Super Bowl runs through Kansas City. Allen & Co. showed they could beat the Chiefs with a 30-21 victory in Buffalo in Week 11.

The postseason, however, has been a different story.

Patrick Mahomes owns a 3-0 record over Allen in the playoffs, including a 27-24 win in Buffalo in last season's AFC divisional round. For the second time in four seasons, the Bills and Chiefs will face off in the AFC title game. And this year, the Bills-Chiefs matchup is at Arrowhead Stadium.

"It's what we've worked for," Allen said about facing Mahomes and the Chiefs again. "It's an opportunity to play another week. We don't want our season to end in a loss. And this gives us an opportunity to keep going."

Here's a closer look at a star-studded AFC Championship showdown.

No. 1 seed: Kansas City Chiefs

Biggest strength: Of course, Mahomes is the straw the stirs the drink for Kansas City. His unique ability to execute at the end of games is a key reason why the Chiefs have won 16 straight one-score games dating back to last season. Mahomes has a 98.2 career passer rating in the fourth quarter and overtime during the regular season. And that jumps to a 108.6 passer rating in the playoffs. With one of the most clutch quarterbacks in NFL history paired with a future Hall of Fame coach in Andy Reid, the Chiefs will be a difficult out as they chase an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl victory. Winners of nine AFC West division titles in a row dating back to 2016, the Chiefs own the No. 1 seed for the fourth time during Mahomes' tenure. Kansas City has appeared in six AFC championships and four Super Bowls (winning three) since he took over as the starter in 2018.

Are Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs officially three-peat ready?

Biggest question mark: Can the Chiefs hold onto the football? They haven't given up a turnover in eight games, but they did fumble twice in their win over the Houston Texans last week, managing to recover both. During the 2024 regular season, Mahomes threw 11 interceptions, tied for ninth-most in the NFL, but he has just two interceptions in six AFC Championship Games. The Bills had 16 picks during the regular season — tied for No. 5 in the league — and three takeaways in their win over the Baltimore Ravens last week. In the playoffs, where every possession is precious, Buffalo's ability to steal a possession from the Chiefs will be critical.

X-factor: While Kansas City's success starts with Mahomes, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is a close second. Spagnuolo, the first coach in NFL history to win four Super Bowls as a defensive coordinator, has once again put together one of the best defenses in the league. The Chiefs allowed 19.2 points per game in 2024, No. 4 in the NFL. Since the start of the 2023 season, Kansas City has the No. 1 scoring and total defense in the league. To beat the Chiefs in the postseason, opposing offenses must figure out how to consistently move the football against one of the best defensive minds in the game. Last week, the Chiefs sacked Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud eight times and held the Texans to 14 points.

No. 2 seed: Buffalo Bills

Biggest strength: Leading one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, Allen finished with 42 total touchdowns in 2024, joining Aaron Rodgers as the only players with 40 or more total touchdowns in at least five NFL seasons. Running back James Cook, a Pro Bowl snub who finished with 1,009 yards and tied for a league high with 16 rushing touchdowns, has provided balance on offense. With WR1 Stefon Diggs traded last offseason, the Bills finished with a league-high eight players with multiple touchdowns in 2024. Khalil Shakir led Buffalo with 76 receptions for 821 receiving yards during the regular season. Last week against the Ravens, Shakir had a team-high six receptions for 67 yards.

Biggest question mark: In defeating Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry & Co. last week, Buffalo did a good job shutting down one of the most explosive running offenses in the league. But in the regular season, the Bills struggled against playoff teams, going 2-3 against teams that reached the playoffs. They allowed 108 more yards per game against current playoff teams and an average of 33 points, the fourth most all time by a playoff team. Buffalo needs a strong performance from the defense to get past Mahomes and the Chiefs.

X-factor: Allen had his best year avoiding turnovers, and Buffalo tied for the fewest giveaways (8) in any season since 1990. The Bills had a plus-24 turnover margin — the best differential by any NFL team since 2012. Last weekend against the Ravens, the Bills won the turnover battle 3-0. If Allen & Co. can win that battle this week against the Chiefs, it would greatly enhance their chances of reaching the Super Bowl for the first time since 1994.

Prediction: Expect another close game that comes down to the final possession between these two teams. The game could turn on which offense has the ball last. But it's hard to go against Mahomes in the postseason, based on Kansas City's past success. Chiefs 30, Bills 27

Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on Twitter at @eric_d_williams.

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