National Football League

Ranking the biggest concerns for each AFC South team in 2021

Published Aug. 11, 2021 9:59 a.m. ET

By Randy Mueller
Special to FOX Sports

As we continue to run through each NFL division and outline what would keep me up at night as a general manager, we're moving to the AFC South after beginning with the AFC North and AFC East.

As an NFL GM, you never know when something will go wrong with your team. And when they do, there are late-night meetings and exhaustive conversations, even more than usual.

As Mike Tyson used to say, "Everyone has a plan until you get punched in the face."

Regarding the AFC South, the common theme between the two best teams is injuries, and the division winner might just be whichever squad has the best medical staff. Let’s jump into a few of those thoughts and conversations.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

In my opinion, the Colts are the most complete team in the AFC outside of Kansas City and maybe Buffalo. I like their roster, their plan and the way they go about their business as much as any team in the league. Having said that, their depth, especially on the offensive line, is an area that would cause me constant anxiety.

In fact, it probably would have ruined my summer vacation.

Normally, I wouldn’t be sick over injuries at this point in the season, but when you're thin to start with and you lose two starters, Tums might be needed.

The Colts are the first team to have to deal with multiple hits, so it can’t be ignored. Before we even get to losing QB Carson Wentz and OG Quenton Nelson — significant but likely only temporary blows — they also have veteran OT Eric Fisher and rookie DE Dayo Odeyingbo out with Achilles tears. Both would be regular contributors. But both have failed their physicals (which was expected), and will most likely start the season on the reserve PUP list, which means they cannot return before the six-week mark of the regular season.

On GM Chris Ballard’s mind right now is trying to steady a ship against panic, as well as dealing with media gloom and doom. He has to try to sustain the positive momentum this team built in a productive offseason. Blocking out the noise is a lot of a GM’s job.

We heard this last fall from Nick Saban: It’s all "rat poison," and you can’t drink it. It’s a constant fight for a leader, whether in college or pro football, to mitigate opinions outside your building. Your personality and demeanor are followed by everyone, so you have to be unaffected by events such as these injuries. The world goes on in football, despite who is injured and how long they will be out. You have to send that exact message to the people in your building, especially in the locker room, and that’s really all that matters.

We all had confidence in QB Jacob Eason as a backup before Wentz went down, right? Let’s give the rookie a chance and see what happens in Wentz's absence.

Count me in as someone who thinks the Colts don’t need Bears QB Nick Foles. Has anyone watched him play the past two years? That kind of performance and his crazy contract are two kinds of drama the Colts don’t need to inject into their world. I’d rather roll the dice with a solid team around Eason.

If I know Ballard — and I do — he will be upbeat and positive, just like head coach Frank Reich. It’s important for them to be flag carriers of the message, "We will be fine." I love Nelson, and he is probably the best guard in football, but he is a guard. Losing a guard should not derail a team's chances of winning a division, but if you listen to the noise and chatter, you’d think the Colts' season is over.

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The one thing that I’m sure worries Ballard is starting center Ryan Kelly's elbow injury. He should be back in a couple weeks, though. In fact, the next two weeks might be an opportunity to build some depth at both center and guard.

Going back to Eason, I believe he has all the talent needed to succeed with the Colts. When I saw him in person as a freshman at Georgia, he had everything you look for in a first-round pick. In fact, I’d bet not a single NFL GM would have chosen Jake Fromm — Eason's replacement at Georgia once he transferred — over him.

I think Eason might just surprise some folks. If Wentz's tenure in Indy is short, it will be because he couldn't stay healthy and Eason passed the test, but that isn't a decision anyone has to make now.

Beyond that, the Colts need some athletic corners in the secondary, something that could still be accomplished before the regular season. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes, a castoff from Minnesota a year ago, played better for the Colts, but he is not a cover corner. His instincts and smarts make him viable — but only as a zone defender. If the Colts need to blitz for pressure at some point, that usually requires some form of man-to-man defense, so corners who can’t hold up on an island usually get exposed.

TENNESSEE TITANS

If I am GM Jon Robinson, I have two main concerns: Our top-five offense last year is being orchestrated by someone new, and our two biggest player acquisitions come with medical concerns. In addition, I’m making a big leap of faith that Mike Vrabel can fix a leaky defense.

Former offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, who was with the organization through four head coaches, is now the Falcons' head coach. The Titans, with new offensive coordinator Todd Downing, hope their top-notch, run-first, ball-security offense remains in Tennessee.

Big-play wideout Julio Jones, acquired from Atlanta, looks to make this system a little less one-dimensional. It’s a risk-reward equation. The Titans can spread it out and throw it around, but that probably comes with a price, and they must not forget that their strength is the 6-foot-3, 250-pound back standing in the backfield, Derrick Henry.

It might not be flashy, but it has worked — to a point.

Robinson has to be slightly worried because Jones is already not practicing due to an undisclosed injury. Also, first-round pick CB Caleb Farley out of Virginia Tech, the biggest addition to the defense, comes with a balky back and a bit of stiffness athletically. That is never a good way to start a career. Farley is a draft risk some GMs would not have taken, regardless of the upside. Add edge player Bud Dupree (former Pittsburgh Steeler) to the fingers-crossed list, as he returns from a torn ACL last December.

Robinson would be the first to admit that he rolled the dice in his latest additions.

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Sometimes, a team’s decision-makers try so hard to fill a particular need that they bypass better players or overvalue some evaluations to fill the need. I’ve made this mistake on occasion as a GM and kicked myself down the road for doing so.

The lesson is, you have to continue to exercise patience when building your team, even when you think you’re getting close to the top. Reaching for that last missing link or a couple of players you think would put you over the top sometimes comes not only via pressure from the outside but also via pressure from within.

Does anyone think Mike Vrabel, who I like and respect very much, is a patient man? The GM, who in this case has the final say on roster additions, can’t get caught up in the pressure or hype.

It’s a tough task, believe me.

HOUSTON TEXANS

Not to be disrespectful to the history of the Texans, but new GM Nick Caserio and his staff should have eyes only on the future.

It’s difficult to relate to prior results when undergoing a total rebuild like Houston has taken on. The past does not matter. All the former icons are gone, including JJ Watt, Deandre Hopkins and even Bill O’Brien (five winning seasons and four playoff appearances). With approximately 50 new players under contract, the culture and way of doing business are completely different.

Obviously, the one major player from the past who remains in the mix is QB Deshaun Watson, but his future is still to be determined. Caserio has had no choice but to place Watson on the shelf in the backroom and go about his rebranding of the Texans. Due to his off-the-field issues, Watson has no leverage and bigger problems than demanding a trade from Houston.

What I would be concerned about regarding Watson isn’t trading him now or a compensation package. I’m worried about controlling the narrative that without him, it’s all gloom and doom for the franchise. Watson is in camp going through some of the motions, and the media is speculating about what’s going to happen.

But for team decision-makers, it’s a non-issue right now. The investigations are ongoing, and even though the league office has put no restrictions on the QB's participation, I can't envision a plan that includes Watson in 2021.

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The team's main job is to try to keep the narrative on those in camp competing for jobs and learning the updated ways of the world being installed by new head coach David Culley and his staff.

As far as football worries go, I’m not sure Caserio has many. There are zero expectations for this team. He has a first-time head coach whose program will take time to install. He has a roster of players signed to compete for jobs. The pressure will come only when matched against teams in a similar rebuilding position, which happens to be Jacksonville in Week 1. Beyond that, the Texans have a year to play with house money and plan their cap and roster for the next offseason.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

In college football, bravado and hard coaching work for those charismatic leaders who are the focal points and drive the popularity of their programs. History has not treated those coaches well when they come to the NFL.

The pro game is all about the players. I lived this in Miami when I was the Dolphins' GM and Nick Saban was our coach. Records and accolades don’t transfer from college to the pros. Grown men with families want to be treated as such and want to know you have their backs at all cost — even if that means biting the bullet and taking the blame for them.

If Urban Meyer employs the same relationship-building and coaching style that he used to run his teams at Ohio State and Florida, that would be the biggest concern for me if I were GM of the Jaguars. That’s not to say Meyer can’t adjust, but it’s going to mean an ego check that I have never seen from him before.

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These players cannot be coached as hard or as publicly as Meyer coached players in college. He can’t get mad and run anyone off. There are only 53 guys at the end of the day — no more 75 scholarships with the third corner being as good as the first. That isn't the way it works at the game’s highest level. Parity is the story.

I’d be worried about Coach Meyer's reaction after the first close game the Jaguars lose in frustrating fashion. He is not used to losing, and there will be plenty of that this season. He always had better players than any other team he faced in college. That’s not going to be the case in his new gig. It’s going to take patience and understanding from him and his staff to keep this group engaged, wanting to play hard and not turning their backs on him. This dynamic will be interesting to watch.

From a football standpoint, I worry about the big guys on both sides of the ball. The Jags have an NFL QB in top pick Trevor Lawrence, solid RBs and even a decent group of wide receivers. I see stars in edge defender Josh Allen and LB Myles Jack on defense.

But NFL games are won and lost up front, and when I look at this roster, I’m amazed at how few really good big guys this team has, especially when you consider how much losing they have done and where they have been picking in the draft.

When the injuries come, it’s going to test everyone’s spirit — most of all, that of the new boss.

Randy Mueller is the former general manager for the Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins. He spent more than 30 years working in NFL front offices as a talent evaluator. Follow him on Twitter or at muellerfootball.com.