National Football League

After ‘nearly flawless’ first start, can Michael Penix Jr. lead Falcons to playoffs?

Published Dec. 24, 2024 9:03 a.m. ET

Editor’s note: This is the 16th installment of a season-long series on a breakout star from the past week of NFL action. The Week 16 winner: Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

Michael Penix Jr.'s routine didn’t change for his first career start. After all, he’d been preparing as Atlanta's starter the previous 14 games — even though he wasn’t.

He had nerves on Sunday, yes. But they went away once he hit the field.

"It’s the game I’ve been playing since I was 5 years old, and obviously it’s different, it’s at a high level [in the NFL], but it’s the same game," Penix explained. "I’ve just got to go out there and execute."

That he did.

The No. 8 overall pick put together a strong performance in his first career start, helping guide the Falcons to a 34-7 rout of the struggling New York Giants. Penix completed 66.7% of his passes (18-of-27) for 202 yards and an interception, which wasn’t actually his fault (tight end Kyle Pitts bobbled a red-zone pass, which landed in the hands of Giants cornerback Cor’Dale Flott). Penix didn’t record a touchdown, but he nearly had one in the third quarter, when running back Bijan Robinson was downed short of the end zone on a 13-yard pass play.

Overall, the former Washington Huskies star didn't make any big mistakes, with Atlanta's run game and defense leading the way. Robinson had both offensive touchdowns on the ground, while safety Jessie Bates III and edge rusher Matthew Judon each recorded a pick-six.

Penix didn’t have any "big-time" throws Sunday, but he also didn’t have any turnover-worthy plays, according to Pro Football Focus.

"He went out and played almost flawless football and kept the game really lean and kept everything clean for us in order for us to get the win," Falcons coach Raheem Morris said.

Added Robinson: "He was poised, nice and calm and collected, and he just dished out what he had to do."

As the one dubbed the future of the franchise, Penix has been thrust into an earlier-than-expected starting role in the wake of the benching of Kirk Cousins, who signed a four-year, $180 million contract with Atlanta in the spring.

Now, the team's playoff aspirations are suddenly in Penix’s hands.

The 8-7 Falcons control their fate. They can clinch the NFC South this week with a victory over the Washington Commanders on Sunday night and a Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss to the Carolina Panthers. The Falcons can also earn a postseason berth just by winning their final two games.

"I always live by that 1-0 mindset," Penix said. "Just go one day at a time."

Michael Penix Jr. shines in Falcons' victory over Giants

Why Penix was successful in Week 16

The middle of the field was his best friend.

Penix completed 100% (!) of his throws targeting the center area, going 10-for-10 for 123 yards, per PFF. The short middle, between 0-9 yards downfield, was his most targeted portion of the field (five passes). But the first-round pick had a lot of success on outbreaking routes as well, particularly to his right. Just six of his 27 passes went to the left side of the field, and he completed just one of those throws for five yards.

Maybe the most impressive thing Penix did on Sunday was evade pressure. The Giants didn’t sack him once, despite pressuring him on 48.3% of his dropbacks, according to Next Gen Stats. And the Giants rank seventh in the NFL with 42 sacks. They’ve had their struggles this season, but they're effective rushing the passer.

Here's some perspective on how much New York pressured Penix (and his success in spite of it): Among active quarterbacks, the Tennessee Titans’ Will Levis has faced the highest pressure rate per dropback this season at 40.1%, per NGS. The Giants' game plan was clear: Rattle the rookie. But it didn't work.

"Those little, subtle athletic movements are things that we've seen since we got him honestly, that we did not see on college tape, at least last year," Morris said of Penix navigating the pocket. "Some of the things that he's been able to do with us in training camp and being able to tell me that he was going to run away from somebody and all those things, I got a chance to see [Sunday]. To see it happen live in good moments with a slide on one big-time gain and another one just being able to get away from a sack and throw the football away, those are grown-men, professional-type plays that you love to see from your young quarterback."

Penix also got rid of the ball quickly against the Giants. His average time to throw was 2.47 seconds, according to Next Gen Stats, which would rank second among qualified passers for the year. The rookie made a lot of good decisions overall. His passes were accurate. His throws had some zip to them.

"I feel like I trust my arm because of the reps that I have. I see it each and every day throughout practice," Penix said. "I'm making those throws, those guys are making those plays, offensive line keeping me protected. So when it comes to game day, it's like just another day for us."

It was just Penix's first day as a starter, but there’s plenty to be optimistic about for the Falcons.

Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.

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