National Football League

Every NFL team's 2021 Super Bowl odds, ranked from worst to best bet

Updated Sep. 7, 2021 12:56 p.m. ET

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By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The NFL regular season begins in just days.

You have a few precious hours left to scout rosters, analyze schedules, weigh injuries and place your futures bets on who is going to win Super Bowl 56. And to help you out, we ranked all 32 teams ahead of this season by the value on the odds they'll win the Super Bowl. 

Take note: This isn't technically a ranking of the teams from very worst to very best, although the worse teams tend to be toward the bottom and the better teams toward the top. This is my ranking of the best bets you can make on who will win Super Bowl 56 … starting with the teams I absolutely would not recommend putting even a dollar on (with all odds via FOX Bet).

Let's get started!

32. Houston Texans – +20000 (bet $10 to win $2010 total)

Lowest win total on the board, uncertainty at QB, and a defense that can’t stop a nose bleed. 

I’m more likely to become a billionaire than the Texans are to finish above .500, much less win the Super Bowl this season.

31. Detroit Lions – +12500 (bet $10 to win $1260 total)

There is a universe in which the Lions ride an inspired Jared Goff and underrated defensive talent to seven or eight wins. 

But the schedule is brutal – six road games against playoff teams from 2020! – and I’m sorry, but Dan Campbell is not winning the Super Bowl this year. 

30. Cincinnati Bengals – +10000 (bet $10 to win $1010 total)

The Bengals will be improved, but they’re not higher on this list for three reasons: 

1) How is coach Zac Taylor going to go from 6-25-1 to the Super Bowl?

2) The AFC North is a filthy, disgusting mosh pit whence nobody comes out alive.

3) Only one of their final seven opponents has a season win total under 8.5.

29. Carolina Panthers – +7000 (bet $10 to win $710 total)

The Panthers were a fantastic 8-4 against the spread as an underdog last year, and they’re going to be underdogs frequently again this year. Matt Rhule is a coach whose stock I’m buying low. 

But the Super Bowl? Sam Darnold cannot go from worst QB in the NFL (by some metrics) to winning the Super Bowl in twelve months.

28. New York Jets – +10000 (bet $10 to win $1010 total)

The Jets have the longest playoff drought in the NFL (10 years). They have a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, new defensive coordinator, and rookie QB. 

As a Jets fan, I could build a flimsy case for the Jets to make the playoffs; I can’t even fathom them having a shot at the Super Bowl.

27. Las Vegas Raiders – +6600 (bet $10 to win $670 total)

One of the most dysfunctional teams in the league, the Raiders once again scream "stay away." 

From the huge offseason losses on the offensive line, to questions about the secondary, to the difficult division … there isn’t an ounce of value in the Raiders to win a ring. 

26. New Orleans Saints – +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)

The most puzzling number on the board, as I’m much lower on the Saints than this. 

They’re basically the 2020 Patriots, who lost a Hall of Fame QB, had a ton of opt-outs defensively (the Saints lost five key contributors to free agency), and have no receivers (given the Michael Thomas surgery).

25. Chicago Bears – +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)

There’s a reason teams from the NFC North are so low here, and it’s the schedule. When you have to play the two toughest divisions in the NFL – NFC West, AFC North – the uphill climb is real.

 It’s more fun to speculate on the Bears QB race than it is their actual Super Bowl chances.  

24. Washington Football Team – +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total)

Ryan Fitzpatrick, a guy who hasn’t been to the playoffs in his career, is suddenly going to get to the Super Bowl? 

Love the defense, which is good enough to vault Washington to the playoffs again. But it’ll face Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers … before Halloween.

23. Philadelphia Eagles – +7500 (bet $10 to win $760 total)

The biggest preseason long shot to win the Super Bowl was the 1999 St. Louis Rams behind unknown QB Kurt Warner; the Rams were 300-1. Jalen Hurts will not pull a Kurt Warner this year and lead the Eagles to the Super Bowl. 

I much prefer the Eagles to maybe sneak into the playoffs, as their only road game this season against a playoff team from last year is at Washington on Jan. 2.

22. Atlanta Falcons – +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total)

New coach, new offensive coordinator … just too much newness for me. 

That being said, going 2-8 in one-score games last year was a killer, and if the ball bounces differently in 2021, maybe they’re hovering around .500. At best, the Falcons are a playoff team, but they’d need something calamitous to happen to the Bucs to have a shot to win the division. 

21. New York Giants – +7500 (bet $10 to win $760 total)

The market doesn’t like the Giants, but they were 9-5 ATS as an underdog last year. They started 1-7, fought back into playoff contention, and cratered down the stretch behind backup QB Colt McCoy. 

This year, there’s a chance they’re 4-0 heading into a week five game against the Cowboys.

20. Miami Dolphins – +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)

Miami led the NFL in two categories that they are unlikely to duplicate: takeaways (29) and 3rd down defense (31%); they were also seventh in red zone defense. To show you how wildly that fluctuates, in those categories the year before, Miami ranked 29th, 24th, and 27th. 

Unless Tua Tagovailoa makes a Josh Allen-type leap and the offensive line improves, there’s just no shot at the Super Bowl.

19. Indianapolis Colts – +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)

Preseason surgery to Carson Wentz and Quentin Nelson could put the Colts down for the count before the calendar turns to October. 

Nobody has a tougher September schedule: vs Seattle, vs the Rams, at Tennessee, at Miami, at Baltimore. Four of those teams made the playoffs last year and Miami won 10 games. The poor AFC South is the only reason they’re not lower.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers – +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)

Their win total is 8.5, yet Mike Tomlin has never finished under .500 as coach of the Steelers. Will this be the first time for everything? 

Going 7-2 in one-score games last year will regress. Losing three offensive linemen is gonna sting. One could argue the Steelers have the worst QB in the division in 39-year old Ben Roethlisberger, who had 10 interceptions in the team’s final seven games.

17. Tennessee Titans – +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total)

Probably the favorites in the division given the Colts' injuries, but I’m leery of taking the bait. They went 7-3 in one-score games last year and led the NFL in turnover margin (+11). Historically, those are difficult to duplicate. 

A four-game stretch bridging October and November vs Bills, vs Chiefs, at Colts, at Rams should seal their fate.

16. Denver Broncos – +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total)

Yes, this is irrationally high. So much needs to go right for the Broncos to get into the playoffs, much less the Super Bowl. And we don’t even know who their QB is (probably Teddy Bridgewater over Drew Lock). 

Yet I can see the defense making a Washington-type leap, and the offensive weapons are there for whoever wins the starting job.

15. Minnesota Vikings – +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total)

I want to like Minnesota as a buy-low team after rebuilding its defense. 

But they have arguably the toughest schedule in the NFC (nine games against playoff teams from 2020), including a stretch that goes: at Baltimore, at Chargers, home vs Aaron Rodgers, at the 49ers.

14. Cleveland Browns – +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total)

Are the Browns a better team than the Cowboys? I’d say so, yes. 

So why are they lower value-wise? Well, they play in a division that produced three playoff teams last year. The AFC is considerably tougher than the NFC.

13. New England Patriots – +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total)

If Bill Belichick can figure out his QB, the Patriots are going to be extremely dangerous. Between free agency and players opting back in from 2020, New England had a massive talent infusion. 

The problem is that for the first time in years, the Patriots have a brutal schedule. They face an NFL-high three teams coming off a bye week.

12. Seattle Seahawks – +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)

Will we see the first-half Seahawks (6-1, 34 points per game!), or the second-half Seahawks (only topped 30 points once in the final seven games, and it was vs the hapless Jets)? 

Seattle has lost three of its past four playoff games and not made the NFC title game since 2014. 

11. Los Angeles Chargers – +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total)

The world loves the Chargers after Justin Herbert’s incredible rookie year (record-setting 31 TDs). They stole all-pro center Corey Linsley from the Packers and drafted Rashawn Slater in the first round. 

The wild card is first-time head coach Brandon Staley, who probably is an upgrade over Anthony Lynn – but he’s only been in the NFL since 2017, so how could anyone say for sure?

10. Dallas Cowboys – +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)

Realistically, Dallas is in the second tier of teams that could win the Super Bowl. 

That being said, wait until they lose the opener to Tampa, and then get them at possibly better odds. They play in an easy division and should be able to host a playoff game.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars – +9000 (bet $10 to win $910 total)

"Don’t tell me what you think – tell me what’s in your portfolio." 

Remember, this is about *value* in Super Bowl odds. I have multiple tickets on the Jags - win the division, wins over, win the Super Bowl. I’m all aboard the Trevor Lawrence bandwagon. 

8. Green Bay Packers – +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total)

The Packers are tied for the second-best odds to win the NFC, but their arduous schedule includes a league-high 10 games against teams that made the playoffs last year. And they should open 2-0, meaning their odds will get even shorter. 

Too much turnover on the offensive line for my liking, though, as 37-year old Aaron Rodgers will open the season with three new starters.  

7. Buffalo Bills – +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)

They went 15-2 against teams not named the Kansas City Chiefs last year, but via Warren Sharp, here’s an incredible stat: The Bills had the good fortune of facing three West Coast teams last season at 1 p.m. ET (Rams, Seahawks, Chargers). They went 3-0. 

Buffalo also went 6-1 in one-score games, including the playoff win over the Colts. The market is super high on Buffalo – they’re only underdogs in two games, vs Tampa and KC – but there likely will be some form of regression.

6. Arizona Cardinals – +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)

Yes, they got older with J.J. Watt and A.J. Green, but for a young team with a young coach, locker room leadership was needed last year down the stretch when they lost five of seven and missed the playoffs. 

Tough division, and they open with three of four on the road.

5. Kansas City Chiefs –  +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)

It’s really hard to get to the Super Bowl. Ask Dan Marino, who went to one. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been back since 2011. 

The Chiefs have gone to two straight. One team (Patriots) in the last 25 years has been to three straight. 

Yes, they have the best QB, a fleet of skill players and a fantastic coach, but history is not on their side.

4. Los Angeles Rams – +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)

If you look at the teams in this stratosphere, there’s a lot of continuity at the coordinator positions and, obviously, head coach and QB. Matt Stafford, on the other hand, is learning a new offense, albeit with a smart coach and talented skill players.

There have been some very random teams that reached the conference championship game in recent years (Titans and 49ers, 2020; Jaguars and Vikings 2018), though. The Rams are firmly in the mix this year.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)

Yes, I just wrote that 20-0 is in play. And they do return all 11 starters on offense and defense. 

If they get by the Rams in Week 3, they’ll be favored in every game the rest of the way, and you’ll regret not taking a flier that you can potentially hedge later. 

2. Baltimore Ravens – +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)

The best team in the rugged AFC North, but the least talked about. They’ve won 35 regular-season games in the last three seasons for a reason. 

When narratives build – for example, that Lamar Jackson can’t win in the playoffs – you can find an edge fading them. 

1. San Francisco 49ers – +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)

Tricky to put San Francisco here given the uncertainty at QB, but there’s no way they actually start 21-year-old Trey Lance, right? 

Just as importantly, no team lost more games to injury last year than the 49ers, And that’s at every position. Three different QBs started six games. Two years ago, the 49ers were 10 minutes away from winning the Super Bowl, and they return eight defensive starters from that team.

I'll take my chances on a 1-in-15 shot that the Niners put all the pieces back together and raise the Lombardi in February.

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can follow him on Twitter at @jasonrmcintyre.

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