National Football League

All Aboard The Russell Wilson Train

Updated Oct. 5, 2023 12:29 a.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz

All right folks, already past the halfway point of the NFL season. Here’s what I like heading into Week 9, with all odds via FOX Bet.

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Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Buffalo Bills

Seattle’s offense continued to dominate the NFL with another high scoring effort against the 49ers on Sunday. Their offense is third in overall DVOA, with a balanced passing and rushing attack. Russell Wilson is the favorite to win the MVP after the eight week mark, completing 74 percent of his passes with 26 touchdowns to 6 interceptions.

In Seattle’s "Let Russ Cook" offense, they are throwing the ball downfield at a much higher rate than any point of his career, with Wilson averaging 8.7 air yards. Wilson is complemented on offense with an offensive line that’s played better than expected. According to Pro Football Focus, they are 12th in pass protecton and 11th in run blocking. That allows this offense to be balanced and have the fifth best rushing EPA in the NFL.

This Seattle offense is up against a surprisingly bad Bills defense, coming in with the 23rd ranked DVOA defense. They are just kind of blah all over, and don’t do much of anything well. The Bills allowed the Chiefs, Titans and Rams to score at will against them, and I see no reason why the Seahawks would do any different.

The Bills offense, meanwhile, started fast this season. Through the first four weeks of the season, they were third in offensive EPA. The last four weeks, they’ve been 16th in the NFL in the same efficiency measurement.

Starting with a Titans loss in Week 5, teams are sitting back in zone coverage and forcing Josh Allen to methodically move down the field. The Bills' drop-back passing EPA was second in the NFL the first four weeks, and the next four, it dropped to 20th. However, their rushing attack has improved, but that hasn’t seemed to help them score points, especially in the red zone, where they’ve been faltering.

The Seahawks defense, for how much we’ve discussed how bad they’ve played this season, appears to be turning a corner just a bit. They are up to 21st in defensive DVOA and get Jamal Adams back on the field this weekend. Their pass rush has been brutal, but they add Carlos Dunlap into the lineup after his trade to Seattle.

Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) vs. Miami Dolphins

The Cardinals, who are off a bye after a huge victory against the Seahawks two weeks ago, started slower than expected this season, but have picked up their play lately. They are quietly 11th in DVOA, and equally ranked 10th in both offense and defense.

The matchup in the desert between the Dolphins' emerging defense and Kyler Murray will be fascinating to watch. The Rams were tormented by the Dolphins' pressure packages, something that is tougher to accomplish against the Cardinals' spread-out offense. They’ve also had an extra week to prepare for these blitzes.

One way for the Cardinals to avoid seeing these pressures is to stay ahead of the chains when they rush the football; Arizona is third in rushing, while Miami is 32nd in rush defense.

This is also a bet against the Dolphins offense right now. Tua Tagovailoa started his first game in the NFL last week, and it didn’t go well. He wasn’t asked to do much, as the defense scored once and set up the offense on the 1-yard line after another Rams turnover, in addition to a score by the special teams.

Still, Tua was dead last in EPA for his position last weekend and averaged 5.4 air yards per attempt. The offense dropped multiple spots in DVOA. Now, he gets a Vance Joseph defense with an extra week to prepare. They will get after Tua with a variety of exotic looking pressures.

Also worth noting, there’s reverse line movement on the Cardinals. Public money on the Dolphins and the line moves to the Cardinals, which is a good indication of sharp money. Lastly, Kingsbury has been excellent against the spread (15-7-1) since taking over in the desert.

Chicago Bears (+6.5) at Tennessee Titans

Good teams win, great teams cover. That is the Bears, who are are blah on offense, great on defense and awesome at covering games like this one on Sunday.

The matchup I’m focused on here is third down defense. The Bears defense is first in the NFL on third down, which spells trouble for the Titans. The Tennessee offense has been different without left tackle Taylor Lewan. They struggled against the Steelers defensive line, and I feel confident they will have issues this weekend with the Bears pass rush.

On the flip side, the Titans defense is 32nd on third down, and it continues to hurt them. Last weekend, the Bengals offense with a makeshift OL converted 67 percent of its third down attempts. The Bears don’t have Joe Burrow, but they do have Nick Foles, who just seems to do enough to keep these games close.

The Bears offense is putrid on third down, but it hasn’t seemed to matter against the Tennessee defense. Finally, the Titans are 2-5 covering the spread and the Bears have won their last three games as road dogs.

Now, when this column was first published earlier this week, I offered up a little Pac-12 before brunch action, too. Here's hoping you got in on the fun ...

Arizona State (+10.5) at No. 20 USC

"Pac-12 Before Brunch" starts this weekend with a bang, pitting the two best teams in the Pac-12 South kicking off at 9 a.m. PT! Lets do this ...

USC returns the best offense on paper in the conference, with returning quarterback Kedon Slovas and their excellent trio of wide receivers. USC lost left tackle Austin Jackson, but were able to move Vera-Tucker to fill that spot, their best lineman from last season.

However, we’ve seen USC have trouble last season when defenses force their offense into rushing the football. This is a big reason I like the Sun Devils to cover this weekend.

Arizona State ditched their defensive coordinator after the 2019 season and gave that job to former Cincinnati Bengals coach Marvin Lewis, an outstanding defensive mind. They paired Antonio Pierce, the former NFL linebacker, to help Lewis craft this defense. They’ve had months to prepare for USC, as they knew with USC in their division they’d have to face them with a schedule still in flux.

Arizona State is going back to a base 4-2-5 defense, making it simplier than the 3-3-5 they ran the last two seasons. Simple defenses that play fast gave USC trouble last season, including Oregon, Washington and BYU. This is what ASU will be able to do.

Arizona State has a dynamic playmaker at QB with Jayden Daniels, under a Zac Hill offense. As Arizona State’s offensive line improved last season, Jayden Daniel was deadly from the pocket. Just ask Oregon. Now, ASU has to replace those offensive weapons, but with their new offense, I’m not as worried about it.

Zac Hill’s offense uses motions, shifts and trades to get themselves into advantageous matchups and against a new USC defense, which hired Todd Orlando this offseason, they will confuse them and get some easy yards because of it. Arizona State also had a head start on season prep as their state was open for business sooner than Los Angeles County. I think Arizona State is a live dog on the money line.

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