National Football League

Are C.J. Stroud’s Texans really contenders to win AFC South, make playoffs?

Published Oct. 18, 2023 6:28 p.m. ET

The Texans competing for a playoff spot this year? To NFL observers, that seemed like a crazy notion entering 2023. Maybe to some folks in the Texans' building, too.

After all, they've been in a years-long rebuild. Even with a new coach in DeMeco Ryans and two of the three top picks in this year's draft — quarterback C.J. Stroud, Will Anderson Jr. — breathing new life into the franchise, winning immediately never felt realistic. The Texans, the thinking went, were striving to be contenders in 2024 and beyond.

Well, those expectations have been exceeded.

Through six weeks, the Texans are firmly in the AFC South title race, with their 3-3 record putting them in a tie for second place with the Colts (Indianapolis currently holds the tiebreaker, thanks to its Week 2 win over Houston) behind the 4-2 Jaguars.

With three wins in six weeks, Houston has already matched its victory total from last season.

"There is no rebuild," said defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, according to The Houston Chronicle. "There is no, ‘We've got time.' No, it's right now. We're going to win games right now. We're going to do everything we can to win championships for this organization right now."

Houston looks like the biggest challenger to Jacksonville in the division. The last-place Titans (2-4) are reeling — quarterback Ryan Tannehill could be out multiple weeks with an ankle injury and Tennessee could be sellers at the trade deadline. And the Colts are much less threatening without dual-threat rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, whom the team has announced will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery. Indianapolis, which has a strong run game and defensive front, has limitations with backup QB Gardner Minshew — limitations that were exploited in its loss Sunday to Jacksonville.

With Stroud, the Texans are also the only AFC South team with a fully healthy QB1 at the moment — the Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence is dealing with a knee injury that has him questionable ahead of Thursday's game vs. the Saints — and that could have a major impact on the standings in the next several weeks.

For Houston's sake, it helps that Stroud has been playing terrific football. The Texans obviously hoped that the No. 2 overall pick would become a franchise quarterback, but few could have foreseen him becoming this good this quickly. He's arguably been a top-10 quarterback in the league so far this season.

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Stroud is fourth in the NFL with 1,660 passing yards. He has thrown just one interception, the fewest among quarterbacks who've posted at least 200 dropbacks, according to Next Gen Stats. He's also tied for seventh among qualified passers with .06 Expected Points Added per dropback and eighth with a 96.4 passer rating, per NGS.

"He cares a lot," general manager Nick Caserio said this week of Stroud. "He has a lot of pride. He wants to go out there and perform well and do the best thing and right thing for the team. He's shown the propensity to do that. … Can you learn each week? Do you understand the opponent? Do you understand what's being asked of you? And I'd say he's done a pretty exemplary job of that to this point."

It's the offense around Stroud, too.

Entering Week 7, the Texans are rated 11th in offensive DVOA, according to FTN Data. After being sacked a league-high 11 times through two weeks, Stroud has been sacked just twice in Houston's past four games. Texans pass-catchers have 1,666 receiving yards this season, fourth in the league, per Next Gen Stats. Houston also ranks 14th in the NFL in scoring (22.5 points per game).

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Ryans' impact defensively can't be understated either. Despite cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. being out for the last four games, Houston has allowed just four passing touchdowns, tied for first in the league. The Texans are also tied for second with a 41.9% pressure rate, according to NGS. They're ninth in scoring defense at 18.8 points allowed per game. After having the worst run defense in team history in last season, the Texans have improved to league average in 2023 — ranked 16th at 108.5 rushing yards allowed per contest.

If there's a big concern with Houston, it's the run game. It's what first-year playcaller Bobby Slowik's offense was supposed to be predicated around, taking pressure off Stroud. But the rookie quarterback has often been the one covering for the offensive inconsistency. The Texans have had fewer than 90 rushing yards in four of their six games.

Dameon Pierce, who dazzled in 13 games as a rookie last season, has struggled so far this year, even with the offensive line getting healthier. He's averaging just 46.8 rushing yards per game, down from 72.2 last season. As a team, the Texans have the 24th-ranked rushing attack, including a league-worst 0.2 rushing yards before carry, according to Next Gen Stats. The run-game struggles have impacted the red-zone offense, where Houston sits No. 27 in touchdown efficiency.

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Even with their flaws, these Texans still look like contenders in their division, a playoff hopeful.

The fact that's even a conversation is a big accomplishment in itself.

"I always go back to you control what you can control. As of right now, seeding doesn't matter," Ryans said Monday of the division race. "You have to prepare every week like it's a playoff game. You have to win this game. That's the mindset. Everything you have for one week at a time.

"The standings will take care of itself if you handle business each week the proper way."

Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.