National Football League

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers Prediction, Odds, Picks

Updated Sep. 9, 2023 3:00 p.m. ET

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The Atlanta Falcons (0-0) and Carolina Panthers (0-0) will face off in a matchup of two division rivals. The Falcons are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -3.5). 

Carolina is led by rookie QB Bryce Young who looks to buck the unfortunate trend that has recently plagued quarterbacks selected number one overall. 

Atlanta is led by Desmond Ridder, a second-year quarterback eager to spread his wings and fly. 

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL odds for the matchup between the Panthers and Falcons — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting expert Jason McIntyre. 

Falcons vs. Panthers Odds & Betting Lines

Falcons vs. Panthers Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Carolina (+3.5) 
• Pick OU: Over (39.5) 
• Prediction: Atlanta 22 - Panthers 21

Pick Via FOX Sports Betting Expert Jason McIntyre:

This total has plunged from 42 down to 39.5, making it the lowest total in the NFL for Week 1. 

Some of that has to do with how bad the Panthers' offensive line looked in the preseason (read: awful), but also the injuries mounting at receiver. Adam Thielen and DJ Chark (probably out) both missed practice time, and Terrace Marshall isn't 100%, either. 

New coach Frank Reich is 0-4-1 in season openers. And since 2003, QBs drafted first overall are 0-13-1 straight up and 1-13 against the spread (ATS) in their first start. Good luck, Bryce. 

However, there's some good news for Desmond Ridder. Carolina’s best pass rusher, Brian Burns, has been holding out and wants a new contract. If he plays, he’ll be on a low snap count. 

The Falcons will want to play it safe with the new QB, so I took the Under and Falcons -3.5. 

I started Atlanta’s defense in all three of my fantasy leagues. So I’m all in here. 

PICK: Under 40 points scored by both teams combined
PICK: Falcons (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points

How to Watch Atlanta vs. Carolina

• Game Date: Sunday, September 10, 2023
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
• Location: Atlanta, Georgia
• TV: Watch on FOX

Falcons vs. Panthers Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, Atlanta has tallied four wins versus Carolina.
• Carolina has been outpaced by 53 points in its last five tilts against Atlanta.

Atlanta Betting Info

• Atlanta put together a 9-8-0 ATS record last year.
• The Falcons had one win ATS (1-2) as a 3.5-point favorite or greater last season.
• Last season, seven Atlanta games went over the point total.
• The Falcons won four of the five games they were the moneyline favorite last season (80%).
• Atlanta won all three games it played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -192 or shorter.
• The implied moneyline probability for this matchup gives the Falcons a 65.8% chance to win.

Falcons Stats (2022)

Atlanta's Key Players

Offense

• Last season over 16 games, Tyler Allgeier racked up 1,035 rushing yards and scored three rushing touchdowns. He averaged 64.7 yards per game and 4.9 per attempt (11th in the NFL).
• On top of his impact in the run game, Allgeier caught 16 pass (on 17 targets) for 139 yards, with one receiving touchdown. He averaged 8.7 yards per game.
• Cordarrelle Patterson scored eight rushing touchdowns, while totaling 695 rushing yards (4.8 per carry and 53.5 per game).
• In nine games for the Commanders last season, Taylor Heinicke racked up 1,859 passing yards, with 12 touchdowns against six interceptions and completing 62.2% of his passes.
• Heinicke also rushed for one touchdown and 96 yards.
• Drake London had 866 receiving yards and four touchdowns from 72 receptions on 117 targets.

Defense

• Richie Grant's 2022 effort included 122 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and two interceptions in 17 games.
• Kaden Elliss had 74 tackles, 7.0 TFL, and seven sacks for the Saints.
• Grady Jarrett had 6.0 sacks in addition to his 12.0 TFL and 61 tackles.
• Jaylinn Hawkins had 82 tackles and two interceptions over 16 games.

Carolina Betting Info

• Carolina put together a 9-8-0 ATS record last year.
• As 3.5-point underdogs or greater, the Panthers went 5-4 against the spread last season.
• A total of eight of Carolina games last season hit the over.
• Last season, the Panthers were the underdog 12 times and won six, or 50%, of those games.
• Carolina had a record of 1-6 in games where oddsmakers had them as underdogs of at least +160 on the moneyline.
• The implied probability of a win by the Panthers, based on the moneyline, is 38.5%.

Panthers Stats (2022)

Carolina's Key Players

Offense

• Miles Sanders rushed for 11 TDs last season, and had 1,269 total yards rushing (74.6 per game and 4.9 per carry).
• In 14 games for the Saints last year, Andy Dalton had 2,871 yards passing, throwing for 18 TDs with nine INTs and completing 66.7% of his passes.
• Last season for the Vikings, Adam Thielen caught 70 passes for 716 yards with six TDs . He was targeted 107 times, and averaged 4.1 receptions in 17 games.
• Chuba Hubbard puts up 33.3 yards rushing per game in 14 games (466 total yards), with two rushing TDs.
• Hubbard also had 171 receiving yards (12.2 per game) on 14 catches (1.0 per game). He was targeted 17 times while he is still looking for his first receiving touchdown.

Defense

• In 2022, Frankie Luvu recorded 7.0 sacks to go along with 19.0 TFL, 111 tackles, and one interception in 15 games.
• Brian Burns posted 63 tackles, 17.0 TFL, and 12.5 sacks.
• Shaq Thompson posted 0.5 sacks in addition to his 8.0 TFL and 135 tackles.
• Vonn Bell's numbers for the Bengals last year included 77 tackles, 4.0 TFL, one sack, and four interceptions over 16 games.

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NFL - Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons - 09/10/2023

Jason McIntyre