National Football League

Baker Mayfield, 2018 QB class offer case study, cautionary tale

Updated Apr. 18, 2022 1:46 p.m. ET

By Eric D. Williams
FOX Sports NFL Writer

In Week 4 of the regular season in his first NFL job, as the offensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans, Norm Chow received some daunting news.

"We get a call from upstairs telling us that Vince [Young] is our starting quarterback," Chow said. "The guy was no more ready to fly to the moon."

Young was selected No. 3 overall in the 2006 draft by the Titans. As a rookie NFL quarterback, he still had a lot to learn. But ownership made the call, and Chow did his best to condense the playbook so the Texas product could play fast.

It worked. Young finished 8-5 as a starter that season, was named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and earned a trip to the Pro Bowl.

But according to Chow, Young’s success was the exception for rookie quarterbacks thrust into a starting role before their time.

"I don’t care how good you are in college, you’re not ready," said Chow, who has coached in high school, college, the NFL and the XFL in a career that began in 1970. "Pro football is so difficult. I went from being an offensive coordinator in college to being a coordinator in the pros, and the intensity, the length of the season and the complexity of what people are doing — I don’t care how good you were in college, you just are not ready."

Chow points to Steve Young, Aaron Rodgers and Carson Palmer as good examples of quarterbacks who watched and learned behind experienced QBs early in their NFL careers, helping their development on and off the field.

But much like with Vince Young, that's usually not how it works. Let's take a look at the 2018 first-round QB draft class, which was thrust onto the field sooner rather than later.

Five quarterbacks went in the first round of the 2018 draft. The Cleveland Browns took Baker Mayfield first overall, followed by Sam Darnold at No. 3 to the New York Jets, Josh Allen at No. 7 to the Buffalo Bills, Josh Rosen at No. 10 to the Arizona Cardinals and Lamar Jackson as the final pick of the first round at No. 32 to the Baltimore Ravens.

Their results have been mixed, to say the least. Those results include:

– An NFL MVP Award

– Three trips to the Pro Bowl

– A 5-7 combined record in the postseason and 125-108 combined record in the regular season

– One QB currently out of the league, another on his second team and a third headed to his second team

Baker Mayfield aims to earn future teammates' respect

Baker Mayfield says he is ready for the next chapter and will earn the respect of his teammates wherever he lands. Marcellus Wiley reacts to Mayfield's comments.

That’s the physical accounting of the 2018 first-round quarterback draft class — a pertinent case study on how to effectively (or not so effectively) develop a quarterback for teams looking to select a franchise signal-caller in this year’s draft.

In his final mock draft in 2018, FOX Sports' Rob Rang accurately predicted the landing spots for all five quarterbacks in the first round, but their outcomes four years later have been surprising for the longtime draft analyst.

"It’s a heck of a reminder about what you think you know and what actually happens," Rang said. "These are young men, and it all comes down to not only your talent, obviously, but your fit with that particular team and your work ethic.

Rang also identifies another crucial aspect of QB development that is often overlooked.

"It’s critical that there is a real connection between whoever is calling the plays or communicating with the quarterback, whether that be the head coach, the offensive coordinator or the quarterback coach," he said. "Somebody that has that type of relationship with the young passer to help them succeed.

"Some of the quarterbacks who have struggled, sometimes they have a defensive-minded head coach who is just coaching the quarterback almost like he’s a linebacker and just doesn’t have that same perspective to help a young quarterback sprout his wings."

Mayfield’s time in Cleveland is a microcosm of the mixed production from this group of quarterbacks. After an uneven start in his first two seasons with the Browns, the Oklahoma product led Cleveland to the playoffs in 2020 for the first time in 18 years, playing his best football during an 11-5 campaign.

However, a torn labrum in his left shoulder in 2021 led to a drop in production, a loss of confidence and a fracturing in his relationship with coach Kevin Stefanski and others in the front office, with anonymous sources within the organization quoted as saying they need "an adult in the room."

The situation ultimately culminated with the Browns making a deal with Houston for Deshaun Watson, signing him to an unprecedented, fully guaranteed $230 million contract.

"I feel disrespected, 100 percent," Mayfield said on the YNK podcast when asked about the way the Watson trade went down. "Because I was told one thing, and they did another. That’s what I’m in the middle of right now.

"And you know what, OK. I got my taste of it because I’ve had four different head coaches in four years, a bunch of different coordinators. I’ve dealt with the highs, and they always come back. … I’m just looking for stabilization right now. I know what I need to do for me to be the best version of me and for me to be able to lead an organization."

Baker Mayfield is in a hole in Cleveland and just keeps digging

Colin Cowherd shares his thoughts on whether the Browns have disrespected QB Baker Mayfield.

While Mayfield remains on the roster, his days in Cleveland are numbered. He is set to make $18.8 million next season, wherever he plays. He said his most likely destination is Seattle, but he’ll be ready to go wherever he lands.

"I really, truly have no regrets in my time in Cleveland in what I tried to give to that place," Mayfield said. "And true Clevelanders and true Browns fans know that. And that’s why I can walk away from the whole situation feeling like I did it."

Like Mayfield, Darnold had to deal with instability at the head-coaching position during his first four years in the NFL, including a trade from the Jets to the Carolina Panthers last season.

"Everything we thought we saw in terms of the pro readiness of that offense [at USC] obviously has not translated very well," Rang said of Darnold. "All the guts and poise he demonstrated early in his career — those are the type of traits that usually translate. And that fact that they didn’t is kind of surprising. That’s the shocker to me of the bunch. Even with Baker, I was skeptical of him until I saw him in person at the Senior Bowl, and then he won me over. And obviously the same thing with Cleveland. He’s at least been a productive starter."

Turnovers have been an issue for Darnold, as he has finished with double-digit interceptions in all four NFL seasons — 54 overall. Darnold also has had four different offensive coordinators, so having a consistent voice has been an issue.

He is in the final year of his rookie contract, and the Panthers will likely draft a quarterback early after failing to land Russell Wilson or Watson this offseason.

However, at least Darnold is still in the league. His crosstown rival in Los Angeles, UCLA product Josh Rosen, is looking for a job after bouncing among five NFL teams in four years.

Selected by the Cardinals at No. 10 in 2018, Rosen was upset he did not go earlier, saying, "Nine mistakes were made ahead of me." He lasted only a year in Arizona. After first-year head coach Steve Wilks was fired, the Cardinals Arizona hired Kliff Kingsbury, who drafted Kyler Murray No. 1 overall the following season. Rosen was shipped to the Miami Dolphins after he posted a 3-13 record his rookie season.

Rosen did not fare much better in Miami. He went 0-3 as a starter in 2019, and the Dolphins selected Tua Tagovailoa No. 5 overall in the 2020 draft. Rosen failed to beat Tagovailoa or Ryan Fitzpatrick and was released at the end of training camp. He signed on to Tampa Bay’s practice squad.

San Francisco plucked Rosen off the Bucs' practice squad at the end of the 2020 season. He competed for a backup job with the Niners in training camp the following year. But Rosen failed to make the final roster and was released, landing with the Atlanta Falcons for the 2021 season.

For his career, Rosen has completed 54% of his passes for 2,864 yards, with 12 touchdowns and 21 interceptions. He’s currently out of the league.

"The knock on Josh Rosen a little bit was does he take the game as seriously as he should," Rang said. "And I think it’s fairly apparent that he did not, the way he’s bounced around. I thought he was the most accurate and polished of the passers in that class. Typically, the most polished passer is usually the safest of the bunch. And that obviously is not the case with him."

The two 2018 quarterbacks who have experienced the most NFL success — Allen and Jackson — had the most questions heading into the draft.

The strong-armed Allen looked the part, but draft analysts questioned his accuracy, the competition he played against at Wyoming and his ability to adapt to a pro-style offense. As for Jackson, former NFL front-office executive Bill Polian famously suggested that he would be a better fit at receiver.

But both players successfully made the transition to the pro game, leading their teams to the playoffs. Allen is 39-21 as a starter, with 103 TDs and 49 interceptions. He went toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes in a classic AFC divisional game last season.

Jackson, of course, was the NFL MVP in 2019. He's 37-12 as a starter with 84 passing touchdowns and 21 rushing TDs.

The keys for Allen and Jackson have been stability, with the same head coach and offensive coordinator for their first four seasons and a willingness by their organizations to build an offense that fits their unique skill sets.

Teams looking to select a quarterback in this year’s draft would be wise to look to the Bills and Ravens as examples of how to develop a young QB.

"A tip of the cap to Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and obviously the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens," Rang said. "The way they’ve built around those two players and the fact that neither one of those guys had to change what they did well.

"[Their teams] built around them, rather than ask them to adapt to their scheme. And I think that’s the big takeaway. If you are drafting one of these young quarterbacks, then you better be willing to adapt your coaching style to fit them, rather than the old-school way of expecting a young quarterback to adjust to an NFL coach."

Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on Twitter at @eric_d_williams.