National Football League

'Bear Bets': Can Chiefs, Eagles cover? Plus, other favorite Week 3 bets

Updated Sep. 22, 2023 12:05 p.m. ET

Week 3 of the NFL season is already here, which means that another episode of the "Bear Bets" digital show has dropped!

This week, FOX Sports' Chris "The Bear" Fallica and Geoff Schwartz were joined by FOX Sports Betting Analyst Sam Panayotovich and Will Hill to discuss a pair of interesting matchups, Week 3 tips, and a couple of futures they want follow or fade.

Are the Chiefs (-12.5) too heavy of favorites against the Bears on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app) or are you willing to lay the points with the defending Super Bowl champs?

Schwartz: "The Chiefs, historically with Patrick Mahomes, have not been the best as double-digit home favorites. They tend to not care about these games very much and at the end of games, have a dumb penalty, a turnover that ends up allowing a late score and not covering."

Hill: "Not a habit for me to lay this many points the NFL, but if there were a game to do it, it would be this one. Remember, Mahomes could have been drafted by the Bears. … You remember Mahomes scored a touchdown against the Bears when these teams played in 2019, and he started doing the thing where he counts his fingers of all the guys picked ahead of him?"

Are the Eagles (-4.5) being relatively small favorites against the Buccaneers scaring you off in a battle of 2-0 teams, or are you still riding with Philadelphia?

The Bear: Eagles

"I know there are very respected people out there that took Tampa plus the points and maybe that's why it's down to -4.5. I just don't see it. The best unit on the field is the Eagles defense. Are we really expecting Baker Mayfield and that offense to be able to put up a bunch of points? I am not an Eagles guy. I thought the Cowboys would win that division before the year and certainly, the Eagles have looked less potent than they did last year, but I don't know."

Sammy P: Eagles

"The other thing in this game you have to think about is Philly played on Thursday. So this is that extra risk, and all these guys that are nicked up, get them healthy, get them ready to go. Really, laying under seven in this spot I like. I would lay five right now … but I probably should get a piece of Philly -5 right now because that likely keeps climbing. We know that every stripe bet, every money line parlay, all these parlays are going to roll into Monday. And most of the public is going to use Philly in those plays."

Schwartz: Eagles

"Where's Tampa Bay better than the Eagles? Give me one position where you're like, ‘You know what, this is the football advantage Tampa Bay has in this game.’ The answer is nowhere. Maybe Mike Evans against the Eagles' corners, but the Eagles have good corners. I can't find a position where they're better than them. … The Eagles win this game by a touchdown."

What other Week 3 tips do you have?

Sammy P: Stay away from Rams-Bengals (-3)

"I got a text on Tuesday, so a handful of days ago, that said 'Hey, be careful with Joe Burrow. Like, they're floating the letters IR around.' I don't know that we get there. But this market clearly says that even if Burrow plays this week, he's not right. The Rams open as a 7.5-point 'dog, and now we're seeing 2.5, 3."

The Bear: Don't fall for Nick Chubb's injury impacting Browns (-3.5) vs. Titans

"I still think the Browns defense is [good]. This is not going to be Tennessee up against the Chargers' defense from last week, where they allow Ryan Tannehill just to throw all over them and complete a ridiculously high percentage of passes. I think you're gonna see a little bit more of what you saw against the Saints, a really good defense."

Sammy P: Fade the Jets (+2.5), Over (36.5) against the Patriots

"Zach Wilson sees ghosts when he faces Bill Belichick. Winless in three starts, two touchdowns, seven picks, 12 sacks, a partridge in a pear tree, all of that crap. This guy just can't solve Belichick. … And I know the total is low, but how do you go Over 37? This is a game that last year, these two teams played, and it was 3-3 in the fourth quarter."

Which future are you betting or fading through the first two weeks?

Hill: Brock Purdy to win MVP (+2000)

"I didn't make any bets in this market before the season just 'cause all the numbers were too short. You go back to Mahomes winning 80-1 and Lamar Jackson winning at like 75-1. I think the books got spooked. And they just shrunk all these numbers. So I stayed away. But I finally saw something this week that I at least thought was interesting. I don't think this is like some great bet that's totally mispriced. But Brock Purdy, I can at least see a path where this team is maybe 14-3, who knows, 15-2? And if you got a quarterback, we know it's a quarterback award, we know it's a quarterback of a team that's going to win double-digit games. He's going to have a chance and the narrative is there."

Sammy P: Fade Dan Campbell to win Coach of the Year (+1000)

"Can we finally cut the crap on this Dan Campbell Coach of the Year stuff? Like, how do you win Coach of the Year when you're not a good coach? He's not even a good coach. Mike McDaniel is a much better coach. Arthur Smith is a much better coach. After they beat the Chiefs, we were basically handing him the Coach of the Year trophy. He's not even a good coach."

Last team to win a game?

Hill: Cardinals

"The boring answer is the correct answer with Arizona. They could easily be 2-0, they are 2-0 against the spread. Now, it gets real tough where you start to play the Cowboys, the 49ers, the Bengals, the Browns and Ravens. It's a really tough stretch. There's a reasonable scenario where they're winless when they play Houston in the middle of November because the schedule is very difficult."

Sammy P: Bears

"Everybody's already turning on the coaching staff in Chicago after two games. And let's also remember that they have potentially two top-five picks next year. You might as well just go to the bottom. I mean, they suck. You might as well just suck the most. … If it's not going to work with Justin Fields, you might as well go to the bottom."

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