National Football League

'Bear Bets': Handicapping AFC, NFC, Super Bowl winners; first coach fired

Published Sep. 1, 2024 12:32 p.m. ET

It all begins on Thursday.

With the NFL season kicking off this week, "Bear Bets" is wrapping up its preview episodes for the year. So far, the gang's shared its favorite wagers on win totals, award winners and more.

This week, Chris "The Bear" Fallica and Geoff Schwartz were joined by Will Hill and John Murray of the SuperBook and Westgate to discuss who they like to win the AFC, NFC and the Super Bowl. They also shared their thoughts on the first coach fired market.

Let's get to it!

Do you think the San Francisco 49ers will repeat as NFC champions? Or are you looking at someone else? Who are bettors placing their money on to win the conference, John?

Hill: Leaning toward the Detroit Lions

"I still think the 49ers are really talented, but I would lean towards Under 11.5 on the win total, just because I think the Super Bowl hangover is a real thing. That's been tried and true over the years. The rest disadvantage is a real thing."

Schwartz: Agree that Lions are the safest choice to win the NFC

"The Lions have the least amount of questions right now when you look at the roster, the way they're built. I think Dan Campbell's style of coaching is important here, right? He is aggressive. He is going for it. That attitude, I think, plays well in the locker room. We know they won a lot of games last year.

"With the Philadelphia Eagles, there's some question marks. They have to replace Jason Kelce. What's that gonna look like on the offensive line? New coordinators everywhere. Is Nick Sirianni the guy that's gonna lead them? And the 49ers, the vibes are bad."

Murray: Bettors like Lions, Los Angeles Rams; agree with Hill and Schwartz on San Francisco and Detroit

"It's mostly the Lions, but the team that everyone's betting is actually the Rams. We've seen the Rams go from 20-1 down to 15-1. I like the Rams. The 49ers are a mess, and Under 11.5 has been a really sharp play.

"Every instinct I have, and the way I've always bet the NFL, is to go against the Lions, because they had such a great season last year. But I don't think I can do it because I like Dan Campbell. I think they should have won the NFC Championship last season."

Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets, Detroit Lions: Who is the Super Bowl favorite?

Would you bet the Kansas City Chiefs to three-peat entering the season? Who are the books rooting for, John?

Murray: The books want anyone but the Chiefs

"We started them at 10-1 to win the Super Bowl. We got bet so heavily on the Chiefs that we had to lower their odds to win the Super Bowl and their odds to win the conference. I can't really disagree with anybody saying they're going to put in a Chiefs future.

"I just hope it's not the Chiefs. Give me somebody else. Give me a fresh face."

Schwartz: Wagering on the Chiefs to win it all again

"It's rare a Super Bowl champion comes back the next year and is better. Their offense is going to be back to what it was, and their defense will take a step back as defenses are more volatile year to year. I don't expect them to be No. 1 or 2 defensively, but they don't need that."

If you aren't betting the Chiefs to win the AFC or the Super Bowl, who do you like in the conference?

Hill: Already have a wager on the New York Jets to win the AFC, plan to place a wager on them to win the Super Bowl

"They're my pick to come out of the AFC. They won seven games last year with no quarterback at all. … I think Aaron Rodgers is going to play great. I think the defense is absolutely stacked. They had to win games by themselves, and they tried to win games 13-10. They're going to have a little more breathing room. I think the Jets are absolutely stacked."

Murray: Would lean toward the Cincinnati Bengals to win the AFC

"If you made me pick a team, I'll go with the Bengals. They've done it before. They did it [in 2021]. I thought they should have won the AFC Championship Game [in 2022], and the refs kind of intervened there to help the Chiefs. They could have easily won two straight AFC title games."

Who's your favorite bet to be the first coach fired?

The Bear: Nick Sirianni (+1000) and Sean McDermott (+1400) clear contenders based on odds board

"I think Sirianni has to be one of the guys that you'd have to consider, because if things get sideways early, you already fired the coordinators and had the roster overhaul. If it doesn't work, now it's on you.

"[With McDermott], it's a team that they've come up short year in and year out. They've lost some guys. The start of their schedule is brutal. They could have a rough start to the year."

Hill: McDermott is the best value

"McDermott's thrown everybody under the bus, but he's avoided it somehow. Ken Dorsey and Leslie Frazier were let go. I think they fired the special teams coach. They have high expectations. You feel like their window is closed."

Murray: Matt Eberflus (+1200)

"I was really surprised that he kept his job last year. It's very unusual to have a team that had the first overall pick use it on a quarterback and go into a season with expectations. … I think there's a lot of pressure on him."

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