National Football League

'Bear Bets': The Group Chat discusses Dolphins-Bills, winless teams ATS

Published Sep. 29, 2023 4:03 p.m. ET

Week 4 of the NFL season is already underway.

As you prepare to place your wagers for the weekend, the "Bear Bets" digital show returned with another episode discussing the week slate. Chris "The Bear" Fallica and Geoff Schwartz were joined by FOX Sports contributor Sam Panayotovich and Will Hill to discuss a few hot topics in the "Group Chat" segment. They hit on possible Travis Kelce-related bets to place with Taylor Swift reportedly set to see him for a second week earlier in the episode.

The crew also discussed the highly-anticipated matchup between the two top teams in the AFC East on Sunday, as well as which winless road favorite to take against the spread this weekend, among other things.

Let's take a look at some tips entering Week 4.

The Dolphins have been widely viewed as the best team in the NFL following their 3-0 start, putting up a 70-piece in Week 3. Do you think they continue the magic in Buffalo this weekend against the 2-1 Bills or are there other wagers you like in that game?

Sammy P: Lean Bills -2.5, Under 54.5

"Well, given the number, I'd lay -2.5 before I take +2.5, for sure. I mean, the protection under the field goal that you get with a home favorite, and it's crazy that you say everybody's on Buffalo. I tend to disagree here, we look at a game that opened at Superbook at -3.5 and that got blown through because there's a lot of Miami love now.

"On the total, this thing opened at 49, 49.5, and now it's at 54. How do you go over? That's like the ceiling of the number. I get it. It could go over 54, but I'm not in any rush to go over 54 when I could have gone over 50.5, 51 or 51.5."

Saints vs. Buccaneers, Jets vs. Chiefs stand out as best bets of NFL Week 4

Schwartz: Under 54.5

"Historically, the number Sammy mentioned gets so high you just contrarian bet the Under, right? Like, it's just you kind of have to when the line moves what, five points? I would lean toward the Under here just for that reason. I think everyone's on the Over everyone expects a bunch of points."

The Bengals (-2.5) and Titans square in Tennessee on Sunday in a battle of AFC playoff hopefuls off to a 1-2 start (1 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app). Which team do you like more to right the ship?

The Bear: Titans +2.5

"I held my nose and I took the Titans +2.5 against the Bengals. Do we like that?"

Sammy P: Lean Titans

"Yeah, I don't think that's a bad play. I mean, clearly Joe Burrow's not right. I mean, we all watched Monday night, right? He's limping all over the field. They're shooting him up like a horse that I used to bet on back in the day. I mean, it's just, it's wild to me that they're in that area where you know, they were on the precipice of falling 0-3, so they had to start Burrow. We know he's not healthy, and they're gonna keep basically what trotting him out there until he takes the death blow."

Cowboys vs. Patriots, Rams vs. Colts, Bengals vs. Titans in Bear's NFL Week 4 Bets

Hill: Stay away, but include in a teaser.

"These are two teams I'm down on. Just from a number standpoint, if I can't get to +3, I don't want to take +2.5. I'll just use it as a teaser leg so there's plenty of other candidates if you want to just tease it up to +8.5, and we've seen it with a lot of these games that are close, ugly, low-scoring games. These teams are having a hard time moving the ball, so nothing in terms of the side."

The team the Bengals defeated Monday night are also on the road this week. The Rams are still in the Midwest, taking on the 2-1 Colts (-1.5) in Indianapolis (1 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app). Are there any wagers you like in that matchup?

Sammy P: Anthony Richardson anytime touchdown scorer (+105)

"In Week 1, he was +190 to score anytime touchdown. And then in Week 2, he was +70. I believe he scored two touchdowns in that second game. So Shane Steichen has proven one thing as a coordinator and a head coach. He's gonna move his quarterback about the cabin. Even if the seatbelt light is on. He doesn't give a damn he's gonna move the quarterback."

Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce prop bets, Chiefs vs. Jets predictions

Two winless teams are favorites on the road in Week 4. The Vikings are favored by four against the Panthers in Carolina (1 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app) while the Broncos are 3.5-point favorites against the Bears in Chicago. If you had to pick which winless road favorite covers, who are you taking?

Schwartz: Broncos -3.5

"[The Broncos] lost by 50 points and the line opened at -2.5 and immediately went to -3.5. The Bears are that bad. I'd rather play with Denver, especially Denver first half. They play really well in the first half, really well. They play better in the first half. They scored 22 points in second half of games. … I think the Broncos first half is a good wager."

The Bear: Broncos -3.5

"The Bears are terrible. You were dead on about this in recent weeks. The Bears are exactly who everybody thought the Cardinals were gonna be."