National Football League

'Bear Bets': The Group Chat's favorite NFL divisional round bets, plus Packers-49ers

Updated Jan. 19, 2024 3:25 p.m. ET

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Another exciting weekend of NFL playoff football is upon us, which means it's another opportunity to throw some money down on the big games.

And if you are betting on the games, you'll want to listen to The Group Chat segment of the latest episode of "Bear Bets" as the fellas break down this week's games.

FOX Sports' Chris "The Bear" Fallica and Geoff Schwartz, along with Sam Panayotovich and Will Hill, had a lot of thoughts on the divisional round playoff slate and a future bet to make.

Let's get right to their bets.

The No. 1 seeds in each conference make their postseason debut on Saturday, and both are big favorites. The Ravens are 9.5-point favorites against the Texans and the 49ers are also 9.5-point favorites against the Packers. Which No. 1 seed do you think is most likely to be upset?

Sammy P: Ravens 

"Probably Baltimore, given the weather and the wind. This is a perfect game for San Francisco and Green Bay. Everything is probably going to go right for the Niners. … Lamar Jackson has not been great in this role. But when you think of about, you know, a low of 20 degrees winds from 15-20 mph, that could affect both teams."

Schwartz: Ravens

"Lamar just has to buck a lot of trends to cover this spread. I know we're talking about just outright winning, but he has not played as well. In four playoff games, he completes about 10 percent fewer passes, and has fewer touchdowns and more interceptions. The offense doesn't score as many points. He just has not been good as a big favorite. He's 1-8 covering a spread of -7.5 points or more, and off 12 days rest, he's 1-6 against the spread."

Will CJ Stroud, Texans' magical run continue vs. Lamar Jackson, Ravens?

Going into the last three games of the weekend, is there a side you or play you like in the Packers-49ers (-9.5) game on Saturday (8:15 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app)?

Hill: 49ers team total Over 30.5 points

"My favorite bet of the weekend. I can't see a scenario here where San Francisco doesn't get their points. This is still a Green Bay team that gave up 30 points to the Carolina Panthers. They couldn't hold their weight against Tommy DeVito. If you look at some of the quarterbacks they played, it's Jaren Hall, it's Brett Rypien, and they have really middling stats on defense."

Sammy P: Over 24.5 first-half points

"I think this it's very possible San Fran gets three touchdowns in the first half, and then you need the Packers to score once, and t's a 21-7, 17-10 type first half. We know San Francisco is going to come out guns blazing."

Schwartz: 49ers team total Over 30.5 points, Aaron Jones Over 16.5 rushing attempts

"Four weeks ago now, the Packers were at the Carolina Panthers, and they allowed 30 points. Do you know how many points the Panthers scored in the next two weeks of the National Football League season? Zero points. The Panthers scored zero points in the final two weeks of the season. 

"[Jones] has been over 20 in four straight games. It's what the Packers have sort of leaned on down the stretch. The one vulnerable spot for the Niners is their run defense. It's 26th in EPA; I feel like the Packers are going to try to keep this game close even if Niners do score."

The Bear: 49ers -9.5, 49ers team total Over 30.5 points

"You go back since the start of the wild card format (it began in 1978), underdogs of seven or more points that win in the wildcard round are 2-9 straight up and 4-7 ATS in the second round.

"I think the Niners will take care of business."

Packers vs. 49ers, Bucs vs. Lions

Heading into Sunday, is there a side or a play you like in the Buccaneers-Lions (-6.5) game? 

The Bear: Buccaneers +6.5

"I think that Todd Bowles' defense can give Jared Goff problems. I think Bowles and that defense can really confuse Golf and make his life miserable. Yes, Detroit can run the ball a little bit better, but I don't fully trust Jared Goff in this spot."

Hill: Lean Lions -6.5

"I go back to Week 6. I know it was a long time ago, but Tampa did nothing on offense. Six points and 2-of-13 on third downs and 13 first downs total. Now you're going to switch venues in that crazy crowd. Detroit can at least stop the run or rush the passer. Detroit winning this game by a touchdown doesn't seem unreasonable to me. I think Detroit's the better team."

Schwartz: Lean Over 48.5 total points

"I rarely advocate for a full game Over, but how do we not get a lot of points in this game? We have two really bad pass defenses. The Bucs allowed the second-most passing yards in the slot in the NFL. The Lions do really well in the slot with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Detroit allowed 425 yards last week and played well in the red zone, but they don't particularly have a great red zone defense."

Lions vs. Buccaneers: Best bets, odds and predictions

The big game of the weekend is in Buffalo, where the Bills host the Chiefs meet in the postseason for the third time in four years. Do you think the Bills (-2.5) finally beat the Chiefs in the postseason? Are there other plays you like in this matchup? 

The Bear: Stay away

"I don't know if I want any part of this game. The Bills' injuries worry me. At the same time, can the Chiefs kind of expose some of the injuries the Bills have at linebacker? They continually bogged down in the red zone, kicking those short-field goals last week against the Dolphins. There are plenty of concerns on both sides here."

Schwartz: Travis Kelce Over 5.5 receptions, Isiah Pacheco Over 63.5 rushing yards

"[I like these plays] because of the linebacker issues in Buffalo. … I feel like in this game, the Chiefs [run the ball to take the crowd out of the game]: 'Let's run the football, establish the line of scrimmage, and just take it to Buffalo.' So that's why I like those wagers. I don't think we see Kelce drop three passes again."

Hill: Under 45.5 total points, maybe Patrick Mahomes Over 26.5 rushing yards

"I wish I bet it accordingly more because Chiefs have been an ATM if you just bet their Unders. There's this perception that it's Mahomes, it's Allen, and I think a lot of people think 'Oh, it's going to be your 31-28, back and forth kind of game like that overtime game two years ago. These are not those types of teams anymore. The Bills run the ball a lot. The Chiefs don't have a lot of weapons, but they're better on defense."

Sammy P: Under 45.5 total points

"Not only have five of the last six Chiefs games gone under the number, Kansas City is the best Under team in the NFL this season. Crazy to think that you have the Mahomes, Kelce and Reid, this team is winning with defense. I made the total 40. It's 45.5, so I tend to agree with Will."

Bills vs. Chiefs: Gambling odds, best bets and game predictions

Any future bets you like?

Sammy P: Christian McCaffrey to win Super Bowl MVP +800

"The 49ers are a 10-point favorite against Green Bay. They'll be a seven-point favorite against Detroit. They're probably going to the Super Bowl, at which point McCaffrey might be 3-to-1 to win MVP. I don't think it's the worst idea to entertain some McCaffrey 8-to-1 right now because the Niners are likely going to the Super Bowl."

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National Football League

Baltimore Ravens

Green Bay Packers

San Francisco 49ers

Houston Texans

Detroit Lions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buffalo Bills

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes

Isiah Pacheco

Travis Kelce

Christian McCaffrey

NFL - Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens - 01/20/2024

NFL - Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers - 01/21/2024

NFL - Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions - 01/21/2024

NFL - Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills - 01/21/2024

Chris Fallica

Geoff Schwartz

Sam Panayotovich

Bear Bets: A FOX Sports Gambling Show