Chicago Bears

Bears remain at center of rumor mill, but a QB decision likely isn't immiment

Updated Feb. 27, 2024 8:03 p.m. ET

Do you know why Chicago is called the Windy City?

It's not actually because of the weather. At the turn of the last century, the city was vying for the World's Fair with New York. As part of a smear campaign, an editor at the New York Sun called attention to Chicago's less-than-savory politicians, who were deemed "full of hot air" and eventually cautioned his readers to ignore the "nonsensical claims of that windy city."

Now that we are entering "smokescreen season" at the NFL Combine with plenty of hot air to go around, it's fitting that the Chicago Bears are the top storyline.

As you might have heard, the Bears are once again facing an enormous draft decision. They own the first overall pick for the second straight year, this time thanks to the Carolina Panthers and a trade GM Ryan Poles made a week after last year's combine. It makes Chicago the first team to have the No. 1 pick for a second time after trading it away the prior year, according to ESPN Stats & Info.

This year is different, though.

The quarterback class is better. The Bears' roster is better. Chicago has more than $80 million in available cap space.

If they stick with Justin Fields, they'll have to commit a lot of money to him — and soon. If they draft a young talent like Caleb Williams, they won't have to pay him more than $10 million in a season until at least 2027.

Chicago also has the No. 9 overall pick and limited holes compared to last year's roster.

Poles can take this in myriad ways — and he has kept every one of them under wraps.

The consensus is that the Bears will indeed take a quarterback first overall. But Peter Schrager says "not so fast" and the outgoing Peter King wrote in his farewell Monday morning column that "the way the wind is blowing" leans toward Chicago keeping Fields.

Windy City, am I right?

The Bears have every incentive to indicate that they're strongly considering keeping Fields. It can raise the value of both the first overall pick and Fields. Think about it.

Is Justin Fields being put in an unfair position by the Bears?

If other teams think the first overall pick is up for grabs, they already know it'll be in high demand for a prospect like Williams. They're incentivized to give Poles their best offer, which gives Poles a chance to gauge the market. Maybe his "mind-blowing" offer is out there, after all. That also opens the door for a bidding war of sorts, and with how good of a chess player Poles was last year, he can use multiple offers to his advantage.

On the flip side, if teams think it'll be hard to pry Fields away from the organization, it could incentivize them to throw in a little extra to make it worth the Bears' while to part with him. It'll only drive the price up if they think Chicago wants to hold onto him.

This time of year is meant for this type of discourse. This is how deals are done in the NFL: whispers in back rooms between old friends at St. Elmo's about who is willing to part with what. Think about trading for football cards on the playground at recess when you were a kid, only the prices are more than your lunchbox fruit snacks and the players are tangible beyond cardboard.

Agents are also talking up their players, trying to improve draft stock for prospects and get raises for free agents. Where else can they talk to decision-makers for all 32 NFL teams?

Beware of things that are said publicly when everyone has an agenda.

The combine serves some very tangible and useful purposes beyond the rumor mill. It facilitates all these discussions, and Poles is sure to have many of them. It also provides a chance to know a lot of these prospects as people, with private meetings all in one place. Perhaps most importantly, valuable injury information is gleaned, with medical testing done on all prospects at the combine. It's coaches and general managers' first introduction to the 3-D player, not just the guy on tape.

But most of that information stays private until the draft and sometimes well after. The Bears believe in discretion more than most, and they still haven't tipped their hand, no matter which way the wind blows in the Windy City.

Carmen Vitali covers the NFC North for FOX Sports. Carmen had previous stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV.