National Football League

Bengals weren't expected to be here. But with Joe Burrow, anything is possible

Updated Jan. 26, 2023 3:40 p.m. ET

There are all kinds of little clues with Joe Burrow: the confidence that's more than just confidence, the assuredness that goes beyond that trait's normal bounds, a vibe of calm — one so damn unflappable that you wonder, "does he know something we don't?"

The answer to that last part, most certainly, is "yes," which is the same answer to a far bolder query: is Burrow, the Cincinnati Bengals quarterback, on a path to joining the QB universe's most elite tier?

He is indeed, and let's not argue about it too long. He's not there yet, but remember how the question is phrased, and you'll realize he's speeding along that specific track, and it feels like an unstoppable climb right now.

As things stand, Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes, Burrow's Sunday opponent in the AFC Championship Game, is the sole occupant of that lofty level, one that demands outrageous excellence both historic and current, proven postseason deliverance, a Super Bowl ring and a market-setting whopper of a contract by way of reward.

For someone to become that guy, to live on that tier, takes a lot. Perhaps a certain degree of swagger is required as well, to not just believe but to be able to come right out and say it.

"I'm him," Burrow yelled, last weekend, as he strode to the sidelines after a touchdown pass that put the Bengals in command of the divisional-round joust with the Buffalo Bills.

"I'm him" has gained ubiquity among today's athletes. It's a phrase coined by a generation that proceeds me or my editor, but we know enough to determine it's something like what you think it is. As in … "I'm the man."

Burrow acts like he has already seen the future and likes what he witnessed there. Last season's dramatic run to a spot in the Super Bowl surprised the NFL world, but it didn't seem to surprise him.

Now, the Bengals are coming for more, and Burrow is coming for his.

For QBs aiming to reach Mahomes' level, there are an assortment of fiendishly difficult boxes to check, and it only takes one missing category to remain one rung down on the league's signal-calling pecking order. Just ask Josh Allen.

Burrow could end up like that, a so-near-but-not-quite guy. There's no shame to be had there, either. As things are, however, if you were forced to pick which outcome is likelier, you'd be easily forgiven for backing Joe Brrr, Joe Cool, Joe Shiesty or whatever nickname he's toting this week, to get it done.

Can Joe Burrow pass Patrick Mahomes?

Joe Burrow is 3-0 in his career against Mahomes, while the Chiefs QB is in his fifth straight AFC title game. Emmanuel Acho, Joy Taylor, LeSean McCoy and David Helman debate whether Burrow could pass Mahomes in the NFL's QB hierarchy if he wins again.

Burrow has built his body of work, has a playoff record of 5-1, possesses a +250 shot of becoming Super Bowl champion (per FOX Bet) and will cash in a Fortune 500-style pact once the summer contract sweepstakes get going.

In his present quest, he has a quality team backing him up in Zac Taylor's Bengals, and he has faith in their resiliency.

"That's why I think we are so good, because we have great football minds out there that know football and game plans," Burrow told reporters. "I just think this year we are a much more complete team from top to bottom. There's a lot of guys in that room that have had it the hard way. Still trying to prove themselves, no matter how wins or how well they play or how many contracts they sign, they're still going to get their work in."

Last season's AFC Championship was perhaps a bigger moment than we realized at the time. Back then, it felt like the Bengals were the beneficiaries of a special run, and of a fortuitous break, when Chiefs coach Andy Reid gambled at the goal line at the end of the first half instead of potentially putting the game away with a field goal.

Instead, it now looks like that was the mere start of the Bengals being not a temporary light but a perennial contender, the sort of squad capable of doing things like, I don't know, winning eight on the bounce to close their regular season.

Sunday's contest is a heavyweight tussle between teams on even footing. The Chiefs have home field and Arrowhead will be deafening, but they also have Mahomes nursing a high-ankle sprain, coupled with the weight of a recent record that shows they've lost three straight to Cincinnati.

"We know what team we're playing," Burrow added. "A team that's been to this game in the last five seasons, and they've all been in that stadium. So, to me, they're still the team to beat. And we're coming for them."

Burrow's coming, too. If not directly for Mahomes, for a place at the peak. Because there is a narrow ledge of room up there for one more truly elite player, and Burrow believes he's him.

Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider newsletter. You can subscribe to the daily newsletter here.