National Football League

Bet on Drake Maye to go No. 3 in the NFL Draft, despite rumors after Combine

Updated Mar. 9, 2024 10:31 a.m. ET

The NFL Combine has come and gone, but the hype from the week-long event is carrying over into mock drafts and impacting NFL Draft betting odds.

Player workouts and how well (or poorly) they tested, combined with the rumors that have emerged from closed-door meetings, have caused the odds to shift.

With all this new information, I’m going to explore some wagers that I’d sprinkle a couple of bucks on this week.

Let's dive into the fun.

Drake Maye +170 to go No. 3 in the draft

USC quarterback Caleb Williams is going first overall to the Bears. I feel comfortable saying that the Bears are going in that direction.

Williams is the best quarterback in this draft, with his special arm talent and play-making ability.

The Bears still need to verify his medicals after Williams skipped the medical physical at the combine, but I doubt that poses any roadblock.

If you don't believe me, here's a good nugget from my guy Sammy P who recently spoke to Westgate SuperBook executive director John Murray.

"Caleb Williams could own Chicago," Murray foreshadowed.

"There’s nothing more important than hitting on the right quarterback. Teams mortgage tons of draft capital just to shoot their shot. Look what Denver did to get Russell Wilson. Look what Washington sacrificed to get Robert Griffin III all those years ago. Teams think it’s worth it to go all in for the right guy.

"Meanwhile, the Bears are just sitting there with the first overall pick, and they can just take Williams. They don’t have to mortgage the future to get it done. And if he becomes who I think he’s going to be down the road, we’re in for years of Bears-Packers games that’ll be monstrous for business."

With the No. 1 pick out of the way, let's turn our attention to who will go second and third in the draft.

NFL Draft odds featuring Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, more

The second pick is held by the Washington Commanders, and they absolutely need a quarterback. I don't see them not drafting one. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Washington traded up to No. 1 for Williams.

He's a native of D.C., and he's an athlete that new owner Josh Harris would love to have on the roster. Acquiring Caleb would be a good first splash for Harris as the new Commanders owner.

The most likely outcome, though, is that Washington is choosing between North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye and the LSU signal-caller Jayden Daniels, college football's 2023 Heisman winner.

While most experts' mock drafts seem split on — or even lean toward — Maye with this pick, I disagree with that assumption.

Colin's best landing spots for Drake Maye, Michael Penix, JJ McCarthy

Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has been successful with Patrick Mahomes playing quarterback at Texas Tech and Kyler Murray with the Arizona Cardinals. While Kingsbury doesn’t control who the Commanders will draft, I’d imagine he has input on the pick. And with that in mind, Daniels fits the QB profile that has brought Kingsbury success.

Daniels' ability to improvise off platform is just what the Commanders need in their offense. He sees the field well and does an outstanding job of understanding where to go with the ball and delivering the ball accurately.

I don’t see Washington passing up on Daniels to draft Maye.

So that leaves Maye to the Patriots or whoever else wants the third pick.

Maye’s potential is great, but he needs to clean up some of his game.

He’s inconsistent with his throwing platform and sometimes, he gets thrown off his game when his first read isn’t there. However, Maye has got some electricity to his game that’s undeniable and the potential — with some refinement — to be an elite player at this position.

I don't see the Patriots passing up the potential of Maye to draft a wide receiver or an offensive lineman. I do believe a trade down would be possible if the Patriots determine drafting Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. in Round 2 is possible.

But, the team trading up to No. 3 would be doing it for Maye.

Rumors are swirling right now that the North Carolina QB is dropping down the board, but I'm not buying that.

Maye gets drafted third overall. Book it.

PICK: Drake Maye (+170) to go No. 3 overall in NFL Draft

One note regarding betting on the draft. These numbers do move wildly at times without warning. Take, for example, Daniels. At some books, he was 22-to-1 to be the first pick in the draft. After the Combine, that number now sits at 7-to-1 at some places.

So, remember to shop around and grab the best number possible throughout this process.

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.