National Football League

Betting action report: Books rooting for Sooners, money coming in on Cowboys

Updated Oct. 5, 2023 4:37 p.m. ET

The college football Week 6 odds market has one game that’s absolutely circled in red. This is apropos because it’s the continuation of the Red River Showdown, with No. 12 Oklahoma facing No. 3 Texas.

Likewise, the NFL Week 5 oddsboard has one game that stands out, with the Dallas Cowboys meeting the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night.

Oddsmakers and betting experts help us dive into this week’s NFL and college football betting nuggets.

Let's jump into the action.

Liking the Longhorns

Oklahoma has somewhat quietly been perfect on the field and for bettors, going 5-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) so far. Texas is also 5-0 SU and a serviceable, though not as good at 3-2 ATS.

Something’s gotta give in a noon ET Saturday showdown at the Cotton Bowl. And so far, bettors are on the favorite.

"It looks like this one will be all Texas money. We’ve seen some sharp bets, along with some public money trickling in, as well," BetMGM senior trader Cameron Drucker said Wednesday night. "It will be interesting to see if it evens out a bit before kickoff. But it appears that we will be rooting for the Sooners come Saturday."

Paul Stone, a Texas-based college football betting expert, isn’t wagering on the game at this point. But he’s got a lean — if the number is right. Texas is currently a 6.5-point favorite in the neutral-site game.

"Oklahoma is clearly improved, especially on defense. But the Sooners have not played anybody currently ranked among the nation's top 70 scoring offenses," Stone said. "Texas is a veteran team with no clear-cut weaknesses. I'm a numbers guy, though, and will patiently wait and see if 6 comes available again."

So if the Longhorns — who opened -5/-5.5 at most sportsbooks — slip from -6.5 to -6, Stone might get involved.

Can Oklahoma upset Texas in the Red River Showdown?

The Sharp Side, On Campus Edition

Stone hasn’t bet on the Red River Showdown, but he’s got keen interest in a key Pac-12 game at 3 p.m. ET Saturday: No. 13 Washington State vs. UCLA.

The unranked Bruins are favored at home, bouncing between -3/-3.5/-4 at most sportsbooks. As of Wednesday night, UCLA is a consensus -3.5. Stone is enthused to back the ranked road underdog at the Rose Bowl, taking the Cougars +3.5.

In particular, Stone expects Washington State quarterback Cameron Ward — a junior in his second full year as a starter — to outplay UCLA QB Dante Moore, a true freshman. Ward has completed almost 75% of his throws this season, with 13 touchdowns and no interceptions.

"Washington State has already defeated a pair of top-20 teams, Wisconsin and Oregon State," Stone said. "And the Cougars are on a mission after being left out of college football's latest wave of realignment."

Stone also noted that Bruins coach Chip Kelly is 7-13 ATS as a home favorite since taking over at UCLA in 2018.

Not-So-Sweet Home Chicago

At 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS, Chicago hasn’t been a winner on the field nor for point-spread bettors. And the Bears aren’t expected to be so on Thursday night, either, when they travel to face the Washington Commanders (2-2 SU and ATS).

The SuperBook opened Washington -6, briefly got as high as -7 Monday morning, and sat at -6 again Wednesday night.

"Ticket count is 5/1 in favor of the Commanders. More money on Washington, too," SuperBook senior risk supervisor Casey Degnon said. "There are also a lot more parlays on the Commanders, moneyline and spread. And we got some sharp money on Commanders -6."

As for the other big games, Sunday on FOX, the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles look to stay unbeaten this season on a trip to Los Angeles to meet the Rams. Philly opened -4.5 at The SuperBook, dipped to -4 a couple of times, and stood at -4.5 Wednesday night.

Bills challenge Chiefs atop Nick Wright's Tiers, Eagles & Dolphins ‘a piece away’

"Ticket count is about the same, slightly more money on the Rams. The Eagles are included in a lot of moneyline parlays, more so than on the spread," Degnon said.

Degnon noted two more interesting matchups on the NFL Week 5 odds board:

Cowboys vs. 49ers: It’s inarguably the game of the week. San Fran has toggled between a 3.5- and 4-point home favorite and the Niners stood at -3.5 Wednesday night. "There are more tickets on the Niners, but more money on the Cowboys."
Bills vs. Jaguars: Jacksonville plays in London for a second straight week, while Buffalo makes the trek across the Atlantic. The Bills moved from -4.5 to -5.5 on Monday at The SuperBook. "Ticket count is almost 4/1 in favor of the Bills, but there’s just slightly more money on the Bills. Tons of parlays on Buffalo, moneyline and spread. And sharp money on Over 48."

The Sharp Side, NFL Edition

Randy McKay makes his bones as a sharp NFL bettor — interesting side note, though: He’s got uncanny slot-machine intuition. But I digress.

McKay had a tough Week 4, backing the Packers in multiple ways. He’s looking across the pond to get right in Week 5, taking the Jaguars +6 vs. the Bills.

"The Bills are coming off a big victory vs. Miami and now have to travel to London to play the Jags. That’s a tough spot here," McKay said. "Jacksonville is very much at home in London. And the Jaguars get left tackle Cam Robinson back off suspension, whereas the Bills defense is banged up in the secondary."

Indeed, Buffalo cornerback Tre’Davious White (Achilles) is done for the season. Safety Jordan Poyer (knee) and cornerback Christian Benford (shoulder) are questionable this week.

McKay also bet Under 45 in the Cincinnati Bengals-Arizona Cardinals tilt. On Wednesday night, the consensus total is 44.5. Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow has no injury designation midweek but has clearly been hobbled by a calf strain so far this season.

"Should the Bengals play or sit Burrow? Either way, this total is high at 45," McKay said. "Also, the [potential] loss of Tee Higgins (rib injury) and the lack of a running game hurts Cincinnati’s offense. The Bengals will have to rely on defense and coordinator Lou Anarumo to win against a ball-control offense in Arizona."

Joe Burrow insists Bengals vs. Cardinals is must-win game

College Football Rocks on FOX

BetMGM’s Drucker served up his insights on a few more noteworthy games on the college football Week 6 odds board. Perhaps most notable among them is the Big Noon Kickoff on FOX between Big Ten unbeatens Maryland (5-0 SU/3-2 ATS) and No. 4 Ohio State (4-0 SU/1-2-1 ATS).

Ohio State opened -18.5, and by lunch hour on Wednesday was already up to -20.5.

"It’s all Ohio State money so far. I would expect that to continue through kickoff," Drucker said of the noon ET Saturday start.

Two more matchups Drucker cited:

Alabama vs. Texas A&M: BetMGM had a preseason line of Alabama -7.5. The game reopened Sunday at ‘Bama -3.5, then went to -2.5 Monday and -1.5 Wednesday. "Some early sharp interest on Texas A&M. But I would expect some public money to come pouring in on the Tide later in the week."
No. 10 Notre Dame vs. No. 25 Louisville: The Fighting Irish opened as 7-point road favorites, receded to -6.5 Monday, and briefly touched -6 Wednesday before returning to -6.5 at BetMGM. "It’s safe to say the public will back the Irish. However, it will be interesting to see if any sharp money comes in on Louisville if the line gets to +7. Jeff Brohm is well-known as a great coach as an underdog."

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

Plenty of high-roller dollars will show up to wager on NFL Week 5 and college football Week 6 odds markets. But a few folks made early investments this week at Caesars Sports:

$125,000 on Texans moneyline +110 vs. Falcons. Potential profit of $137,500, for a total payout of $262,500.
$55,000 on Eagles -4 vs. Rams. Potential profit of $50,000, for a total payout of $105,000.
$33,000 on Kansas State -11 vs. Oklahoma State. Potential profit of $30,000, for a total payout of $63,000.

And in a leftover from Monday Night Football: A Caesars customer in New York bet $60,051.13 — yes, the 13 cents, too — on Giants moneyline +126 vs. the Seattle Seahawks. New York lost 24-3.

Which is always a good reminder to keep it reasonable, people. Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose. Enjoy the football-betting weekend!

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas