National Football League

Bettors lose, sportsbooks win thanks to Packers, Bucs getting upset

Published Oct. 24, 2022 1:50 p.m. ET

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By Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Gambling Writer

One sure way for the bulk of NFL bettors – read: public/recreational bettors – to have a bad Sunday is for a big favorite to lose outright. To that end, I give you the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

After losing at Pittsburgh as a near-double-digit favorite in Week 6, Tampa Bay went to Carolina as a 13-point chalk and managed only a field goal in a shocking 21-3 loss.

That outcome in the early slate of games pretty much guaranteed that sportsbooks would be winners in the NFL Week 7 odds market.

What the Bucs?

First, consider this: The Panthers on Thursday shipped their best player, Christian McCaffrey, to the San Francisco 49ers. Prior to that trade, the Bucs were already sitting at -11. By the time Sunday’s game kicked off, Tom Brady & Co. were consensus 13-point favorites.

But all Tampa got was a measly fourth-quarter field goal.

"That was pretty big for us, yeah," South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said in the understatement of the day. "We opened the game Bucs -11 and closed -13. There was a lot of action on that game. People were throwing the Bucs into their moneyline parlays like it was free money."

Which was understandable. A moneyline parlay play meant that to keep the bet alive, Tampa Bay only had to win the game, not cover the nearly two-touchdown point spread, but the Bucs managed to do neither.

"The Panthers winning outright was a great outcome," WynnBet senior trader Chris Youn said.

Tampa Bay was among the favorites in the Super Bowl odds market, preseason, and through the first few weeks. The Bucs now sit at 3-4 straight up (SU) and 2-5 against the spread (ATS), failing to cover the number in their last five games.

At FOX Bet, Bucs-Panthers betting was certainly interesting. Dylan Brossman said on the moneyline, 85% of bets and about 85% of money landed on Tampa Bay.

That’s despite a moneyline in the range of -750, meaning it would take a $750 bet to win $100 – if the Bucs won the game.

On the spread, betting was significantly more balanced. Tampa Bay still had the edge, at 54% of bets and 59% of money, but 46% of bets and 41% of dollars landed on Carolina. Those Panthers backers easily cashed in a game where the spread never came into play.

Pack Get Whacked

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers can certainly relate to Brady and the Bucs. The Packers have lost three in a row SU and four in a row ATS, after Sunday’s 23-21 setback as 4-point favorites at Washington.

It was another gut punch for public bettors. In fact, WynnBet raved more about the Pack-Commanders outcome than the far-more-shocking Bucs-Panthers decision.

"The Commanders outright was excellent and pretty much made our day," Youn said.

Meanwhile, at The SuperBook, a couple of teams that certainly saw public betting support actually provided good results behind the counter.

"We actually needed the Giants, which was surprising. And the Chiefs winning was our best result of the day," SuperBook senior risk supervisor Casey Degnon said.

An hour before the Chiefs-49ers showdown, SuperBook executive director John Murray said it appeared the book would need San Francisco, preferably outright, which makes sense, with money flowing to Kansas City every week in the NFL.

But as sometimes happens, a couple of big bets can quickly change a game’s dynamic, as Murray noted moments before game time.

"Some pretty large bets came in late on San Francisco. We’re rooting for K.C. here," he said.

Kansas City pulled away in the second half, routing San Fran 44-23. And the Giants, 3-point underdogs at Jacksonville, notched a 23-17 victory.

'Daniel Jones was phenomenal' - Chris Myers and Mark Schlereth on Giants' 23-17 victory over Jaguars

Shortchanged Sharps

Sharp bettors – those who make a living betting on sports – also took some lumps on Sunday. And though it’s rare for a sportsbook to see sharp money on one side overwhelm the public/recreational money on a more popular side, it happened Sunday at the South Point.

As was the case mostly everywhere, the Giants were a trendy underdog play. But the South Point attracted consistent, sharp money almost up until kickoff by having the best odds on the Jaguars. All the oddsmakers were at Jaguars -3, but Andrews had the best price at -3, with a flat -110.

That’s because Andrews’ policy is not to adjust that price. So he was either going to stay at -3 or go to -3.5. Others were at Jacksonville -3 (-115) or perhaps more.

"The Giants were really good for us. The public was on the Giants, but the wiseguy play of the week was the Jaguars," Andrews said. "The sharp play outweighed the public here. We were the only Jags -3 (-110) in town, and everybody played the Jags here."

With the Jags losing outright, the South Point joined fellow Vegas shop The SuperBook in getting a win on that matchup.

Public Cashes a Couple

All the above is not to say that most bettors didn’t get a couple of wins Sunday.

Said WynnBet’s Youn: "The Chiefs and Bengals winning by double digits were our biggest losers."

As noted above, K.C. rolled over the 49ers. Cincinnati also had little trouble in a 35-17 win over the Atlanta Falcons.

Likewise, the Raiders – 7-point home favorites vs. the Houston Texans – pulling away for a 38-20 win was generally bad for Las Vegas books, with local bettors piling on the hometown team.

Back to School

Checking in on college football Saturday, UCLA was a very trendy underdog at sportsbooks across the nation, getting 7 points. But the Bruins got bashed by Oregon 45-30.

"Oregon covering was a big winner for us. There were three times more UCLA spread tickets," WynnBet’s Youn said before noting another key game. "We lucked out a bit on TCU winning and covering, as [TCU] was down most of the game, but pulled it out due to quarterback injuries for Kansas State."

The Horned Frogs, 3.5-point favorites, trailed 28-17 at halftime but shut out K-State 21-0 in the second half for a 38-28 victory.

Youn cited a couple of games that broke well for bettors, noting the outcomes "were sizable losers on the moneyline and spread" for WynnBet:

• Penn State (-5.5) thumping Minnesota 45-17
• Boise State (+2) topping host Air Force 19-14

Degnon said The SuperBook was a small loser to Saturday’s college football slate, pointing to a couple of key decisions.

"Cal covering as a home ‘dog against Washington was a big loser for us," Degnon said. "So was Oklahoma State covering against Texas."

California was a 7.5-point underdog and stayed just inside that number, losing 28-21 to Washington. Oklahoma State was a 6.5-point home underdog and beat Texas outright, 41-34.

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

There was no shortage of major wager activity across the NFL and college football spectrum over the weekend. One Caesars Sports customer in Nevada absolutely unloaded, piling up $1 million in bets, on one short NFL favorite and a host of college underdogs:

• $220,000 on Titans -2.5 vs. Colts (win)
• $120,000 on Arkansas State +7 at Louisiana-Lafayette (loss)
• $110,000 on Nevada +7 vs. San Diego State (loss)
• $110,000 on West Virginia +6 at Texas Tech (loss)
• $110,000 on Syracuse +14 at Clemson (win)
• $110,000 on Duke +10 at Miami (win)
• $110,000 on North Texas +10 at UTSA (win)
• $110,000 on Florida International +14.5 at Charlotte (win)

The bettor’s 5-3 record was enough to scratch out a profit of $260,000.

I’d have been good with cashing out 260 bucks ahead this past weekend. But then again, I’m only betting #ChilisMoney, not #BuyACoupleHousesMoney.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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Patrick Everson