National Football League

Bettors win big on NFL prop bet, but sportsbooks clean up on college football Saturday

Updated Sep. 18, 2023 2:35 p.m. ET

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Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Bookmakers won the battle with Colorado this weekend and had a strong Saturday overall in the college football Week 3 odds market. 

Bettors — particularly Coach Prime backers — gave back a lot of what they picked up the previous two weekends.

But the NFL Week 2 odds market was more of a tug of war between the oddsmakers and bettors. And there was one massive win for those of us on this side of the counter.

Or at least those savvy enough to wager on field goal prop bets.

Let's dive into the weekend that was in football betting.

Here's The Kicker

FanDuel offers an NFL prop on every team in the 1 p.m/4:05 p.m./4:25 p.m. (ET) Sunday games making at least one field goal. It seems like such a prop would hit regularly, but apparently not.

However, in Week 2, all 26 teams playing games in those time slots kicked at least one field goal. FanDuel's odds on that prop hitting were 200-1 (+20000). The result was a striking $20 million windfall in favor of all the bettors who got down on that market.

Even if you just took a $5 flier, you would've profited $1,000. And since props of that nature surely have low max-bet limits, a whole lot of people surely made a nice chunk of change on $5/$10/$20 bets and the like. 

Not a bad way to boost your bankroll.

RELATED: Meaningless Rams field goal causes brutal bad beat

NFL Numbers

Chris Andrews, sportsbook director at the South Point, said Sunday's early NFL games generally went well for his shop. Perhaps surprisingly, even a win and cover by the defending Super Bowl champion wasn't a bad result.

"The Chiefs' win was good, believe it or not. We had a lot of money on the Jaguars," Andrews said.

Kansas City notched a 17-9 victory as a 3-point favorite.

As is often the case at Vegas books, the hometown Raiders get a ton of play, even against a team as good and as popular as the Bills. So Buffalo breezing to a 38-10 rout as a 7.5-point favorite was good for South Point and others.

At The SuperBook, executive director John Murray echoed Andrews' sentiment on the early Sunday games.

"Those were very good to us. We were big winners on the Titans, Ravens and Seahawks. We lost on the Chiefs, but you can't win ‘em all," Murray said.

Tennessee, a 2.5-point home underdog, beat the Chargers 27-24 in overtime. Baltimore, a 3-point ‘dog at Cincinnati, also won 27-24. And Seattle, getting 4.5 points at Detroit, scored a 37-31 overtime victory.

However, as is often the case on NFL Sundays, it's about how many moneyline parlays stay alive throughout the day. When the New York Giants rallied from a 20-0 halftime deficit to beat the Arizona Cardinals 31-28, and the San Francisco 49ers took care of the Los Angeles Rams 30-23, things started looking up for SuperBook customers.

That's because those wins kept alive loads of moneyline parlays running to the Sunday Night Football favorite Dolphins. Miami fended off host New England 24-17 to cash those tickets.

"The Dolphins are going to ruin our day, unfortunately," Murray said. "We needed the Giants or the 49ers to lose, to break up all the parlays going to the Dolphins. What a comeback by the G-Men."

New York won on a 34-yard Graham Gano field goal with 19 seconds remaining. After trailing 28-7, the Giants scored the final 24 points of the game.

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Back To School

To reiterate, most sportsbooks kept a pile of customers' cash when Colorado — a 23.5-point home favorite — barely even got to overtime, then beat Colorado State 43-35 in double OT. But that was part of a broader good day for the books.

No. 1 Georgia struggling early in a 24-14 home win over South Carolina was helpful, with plenty of bettors taking Georgia -26.5. Likewise, No. 3 Florida State was a 26.5-point favorite at Boston College and barely got out of town with a 31-29 victory. No. 4 Texas, a 30.5-point home favorite vs. Wyoming, was in a 10-10 tie going into the fourth quarter before pulling away for a 31-10 win. But that was well short of covering.

And No. 2 Michigan fell miles short of covering a 40.5-point spread in its 31-6 home win vs. Bowling Green. So the top four teams in The Associated Press rankings didn't beat the number Saturday.

Further, No. 11 Tennessee — a 5.5-point favorite at unranked Florida — tumbled outright 29-16, which certainly didn't help the cause of public/recreational bettors.

"We had a solid but not huge day, because we had some house players that had very good days," Murray said, alluding to high-roller customers who hit a few big bets. "The public had a really bad day, though, so we came out on top."

BetMGM, both nationally and specifically in Vegas, termed it a "good Saturday," based on Colorado State and South Carolina covering and Florida winning outright.

Andrews said South Point had a good Saturday, as well. But what was more impressive than the book's win was just the overall amount of money wagered on college football Week 3 odds.

"Our handle was fantastic. It was up 40% over the same Saturday last year," Andrews said.

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

There was no shortage of monster major wager plays at sportsbooks across the nation this weekend. One of the more interesting winners came from a DraftKings customer on an in-game bet. While the Giants were getting ripped early against the Cardinals, the bettor put $25,000 on New York moneyline +380.

When New York came back to post the 31-28 win, that bettor nabbed a profit of $95,000, for a total payout of $120,000.

Caesars Sports noted the following big bets:

– $360,000 on Bengals -3 (-120) vs. Ravens (loss)

– $100,000 on Packers moneyline +135 (loss)

– $100,000 on Vikings moneyline +228/$110,000 Vikings +6.5 vs. Eagles

Those two Vikings bets came from the same customer. Minnesota lost 34-28, so the $100K moneyline bet went up in smoke, and the Vikings +6.5 bet narrowly cashed, for a $100K win. So the profit/loss on those two bets was zero dollars.

But here's the bet that absolutely takes the cake this week, again from DraftKings: $64,755.07 — yes, 7 cents, as well — on Rams +7.5 (-108) vs. the 49ers. Los Angeles trailed 30-20 in the waning seconds and sent out kicker Brett Maher for a 38-yard field-goal attempt, which he made as time expired.

So San Francisco wins 30-23, but L.A. covers in losing by 7 points. And the bettor profits $59,958.40, for a total payout of $124,713.47. 

With a backdoor cover like that, perhaps the bettor should pick up a few lottery tickets, as well.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas

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Patrick Everson