Blaine Gabbert

Beyond the Numbers: Why 49ers Signal-Caller Blaine Gabbert Is Failing at Quarterback

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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San Francisco 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert hasn’t done much to suggest he’s a long-term option under center. But Niner Noise looks beyond the stats to try and reveal what the issue is for San Francisco’s No. 1 signal-caller.

Aug 20, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert (2) in the first quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

2016 has not been kind to San Francisco 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert.

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Niner Noise 9hDon't Expect a Change at Quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers Anytime Soon

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Gabbert’s 49ers are 1-2 on the young season, and the Niners’ No. 1 quarterback’s stat lines have been less than desirable.

Coming off a 37-18 drubbing by the Seattle Seahawks in Week 3 — in which San Francisco went 4-of-15 on third downs — Gabbert’s play has prompted questions whether the 49ers would be better off starting No. 2 QB Colin Kaepernick.

That probably won’t happen soon. But it doesn’t mean we should avoid looking at the reasons why Gabbert is faltering.

These reasons go beyond the stat line. Yes, football is a game of statistics. We love numbers, percentages, ratios and the like. They’re important. Football is a numbers game, as most sports are.

And yet something is missing if we’re going to solely base a Gabbert assessment merely off the numbers.

But, to start, we have to establish those painful numbers to begin with.

Sep 18, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert (2) walks off the field after the game. The Panthers defeated the 49ers 46-27 at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Statistics and Numbers

Blaine Gabbert is the third-worst quarterback in the NFL right now. At least according to Pro Football Focus, which has assigned Gabbert a paltry 45.4 mark on the year.

So far, he’s accumulated a 68.6 passer rating, which places him 30th in the league just above the Los Angeles Rams’ Case Keenum and Ryan Fitzpatrick of the New York Jets.

Gabbert is 53-of-96, which leads to a 55.2 percent completion percentage. And he has three passing touchdowns against as many interceptions.

OK. So those are the basic stats — the ones we all too often judge quarterbacks on.

But take a look at some of the other stats, especially if you like charts, and notably first-down completion percentage:

Each mark represents the three games the 49ers have played in 2016. Completion percentage isn’t particularly great, but the failed efforts to get first downs are problematic.

Football Outsiders has an intriguing stat on something like this. It’s called failed completions, and FO has also set aside one for a combination of third- and fourth-down plays.

Not shockingly, Gabbert was dead last out of qualifiers a year ago in total failed-completion percentage, and he also ranked at the very bottom on successful completions on third and fourth downs.

Guessing those throws short of the first-down marker didn’t help much.

So this leads us to the next area of concern — mechanics.

Sep 1, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert (2) throws a pass before the game against the San Diego Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Blaine Gabbert’s Mechanics

If there’s one thing predicating a Chip Kelly offense, it’s accuracy.

OK, so you might be thinking, “aren’t all NFL offenses predicated on quarterback accuracy?”

Not necessarily. Remember, Colin Kaepernick has never been a truly accurate QB. And yet he thrived in a system under former 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh that maximized Kap’s strengths while not exposing his flaws.

Gabbert appears to have better poise in the pocket, which is probably a main reason he took over the starting job a year ago. But this doesn’t mean his mechanics are good.

Grant Cohn of the Santa Rosa Press Democrat pointed out one crucial element to a quarterback’s game — throwing motion. Cohn wrote:

Photo Evidence

Just take a look at the two photos below and see the difference:

Aug 14, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert (2) passes against the Houston Texans during the first quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Houston defeated San Francisco 24-13. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

The photo above looks more like a three-quarter release.

Sep 18, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert (2) passes the ball in the third quarter. The Panthers defeated the 49ers 46-27 at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

And yet the one to the right is much more over the top. Notice the difference in arm angle and how relatively straight Gabbert’s arm is?

Switch your thinking to baseball for a second. I used to pitch in semipro leagues into my late 20s. Arm angle and delivery were critical elements in ensuring accuracy and hitting my spots. When I lost my angle and release point, I had no clue where my pitch was going.

This backs up Cohn’s claim. Some pitchers are capable of dropping down to a three-quarter release and giving opposing batters a different look.

But that’s not the norm. Few pitchers do that effectively.

Similarly, few quarterbacks can have a varying throwing motion and replicate the same sort of throws with any sort of continued effectiveness.

Gabbert doesn’t fall into that category. And we can see the less-than-stellar results on film.

Dec 20, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert (2) throws a pass against the Cincinnati Bengals during the fourth quarter at Levi’s Stadium. The Cincinnati Bengals defeated the San Francisco 49ers 24-14. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

Blaine Gabbert’s Inaccuracy

Inconsistent deliveries will mean inaccurate throws almost 100 percent of the time.

Sure, Blaine Gabbert is capable of delivering passes with great touch and precision. Like this impressive 75-yard touchdown pass to tight end Vance McDonald in Week 2:

But for each “nice pass,” Gabbert will have two or three tosses leaving us scratching our heads.

Like this one and this one:

The last clip we can also tack onto Gabbert’s decision-making process. That’s throwing into double coverage right there (we’ll get to this shortly).

But just stop and think for a moment how many passes have been bounced into the hands of waiting receivers. Or when Gabbert has missed his target by five, or more, feet.

A few too many to count or list.

Sep 12, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Los Angeles Rams defensive end Robert Quinn (94) tackles San Francisco 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert (2) during the first half of an NFL game at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Decision-Making Problems

An offense might be able to get by with an inaccurate quarterback if he’s capable of making the right decisions most of the time.

The problem is Blaine Gabbert isn’t exactly proving this to be a strength either.

Just look at this play as Gabbert and running back Shaun Draughn aren’t on the same page:

OK, so Gabbert was feeling the pressure. Perhaps, but there was also room to step up in the pocket and towards his left (go back and watch it).

If that play didn’t convince you, this one should. Gabbert isn’t under pressure, yet throws into double coverage and right into the hands of Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly.

Kuechly had inside position on 49ers wide receiver Jeremy Kerley, so it’s hard to figure out what Gabbert was thinking here.

Or here:

Kyle Madson of USA Today’s Niners Wire also put together an excellent assessment of Gabbert’s inaccuracy and decision-making issues. You’ll see a lot of what’s laid out here.

So now the $64 question… how do you fix it?

More from Niner Noise

It’s hard to find an answer because, well, there doesn’t appear to be one. Just ask NFL Films senior editor Greg Cosell (h/t CSN Bay Area), who said of Gabbert, “At this point, he’s not consistent enough. He’s very erratic with his accuracy, he’s continuing to leave throws on the field, and he’s going to have to play better.”

Pretty much. And the 49ers are still scrambling for the solution

All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of ESPN.com, Pro-Football-Reference.com and Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.

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