National Football League

Biggest challengers to a Chiefs three-peat? Ranking the best-equipped teams

Updated Jan. 8, 2025 9:06 a.m. ET

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are seeking to do what no team has ever done in the Super Bowl era: three-peat.

Will they be the ones to make history?

Ahead of this weekend’s wild-card round slate, FOX Sports has identified the five NFL teams that are Kansas City’s biggest threat to a third straight Lombardi Trophy.

We first created this list ahead of the 2024 season, with the context of last season. The teams were revealed in descending order, and the list went as follows: Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans, Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens.

But with the context of this season, the list has changed. The Niners, for instance, don’t qualify after missing the playoffs.

With the postseason upon us, here’s our updated list of Chiefs challengers, in descending order:

5. Philadelphia Eagles

Snapshot: The Eagles’ second-ever 14-win season was fueled by free-agent acquisition Saquon Barkley, who became just the ninth player in league history to rush for 2,000 yards in a season. But Philadelphia also boasts arguably the best defense in football. The status of quarterback Jalen Hurts is unclear entering the postseason, though. He missed Philadelphia’s last two regular-season games with a concussion, and his status remains uncertain for the team’s wild-card round game on Saturday against the Packers.

Why the Eagles can beat the Chiefs: Mahomes, with his uncanny ability to extend pass plays, could have limited opportunities to successfully push the ball downfield against a talented Eagles secondary. In the regular season, Philadelphia ranked first in total pass defense (174.2 passing yards allowed per game) and second in pass EPA allowed per play, according to Next Gen Stats. That could force the Chiefs to lean on a rushing attack that ranked just 22nd in 2024. The Eagles are no slouch defending the run either, ranking 10th in rush defense (104.2 rushing yards allowed per game) and fifth in rush EPA per play allowed, per Next Gen Stats.

4. Minnesota Vikings

Snapshot: The Vikings were one of the biggest surprise teams in 2024. Despite the departure of Kirk Cousins in free agency and losing first-round rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy to a torn meniscus in the preseason, Minnesota won 14 games (second-most in franchise history) in the regular season behind a resurgent Sam Darnold at quarterback. Coach Kevin O’Connell, who has guided the Vikings to at least 13 wins in two of his first three years at the helm, leads a dynamic offense as playcaller. Coordinator Brian Flores guides one of the NFL’s best and most aggressive defenses.

How Sam Darnold resurrected his career with the Vikings

Why the Vikings can beat the Chiefs: As elite as the Chiefs defense has been in 2024 — fourth in points allowed and ninth in yards allowed — there are ways to exploit it through the air. Kansas City was middle of the pack in passing EPA per play allowed in the regular season on intermediate throws (15th), where much of Minnesota’s success this season has been rooted. Darnold’s 140 intermediate throw attempts in the regular season ranked second in the league to the Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow, according to Next Gen Stats. Superstar Justin Jefferson also led all wide receivers in receiving yards on intermediate throws during the regular season (678).

3. Detroit Lions

Snapshot: The Lions won a franchise-record 15 games, overcoming an avalanche of injuries throughout the season to maintain their status as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Detroit continued its historic dominance on offense under playcaller Ben Johnson in 2024, scoring more than 50 points twice and having four players record at least 1,000 scrimmage yards (receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams; running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery). Coordinator Aaron Glenn got enough from his decimated defense to hold the Vikings to nine points in Week 18, helping the Lions secure the NFC’s No. 1 overall seed.

Did the Lions cement their status as the scariest team in the NFL heading into the playoffs?

Why the Lions can beat the Chiefs: Their aggressiveness on fourth down.

Playing against the Chiefs, you can’t be timid when in scoring position. You must have a willingness (and proficiency) to go for leads of at least a touchdown knowing that Mahomes is on the other side. Led by coach Dan Campbell, Detroit not only embodies that aggression but also has the overwhelming offensive talent to remain a step ahead of Kansas City in a potential Super Bowl matchup.

The Lions ranked second in EPA per play and EPA per pass on fourth down and fifth in EPA per rush on fourth down during the regular season, according to Next Gen Stats. On the flip side, the Chiefs rank 12th in EPA per play allowed on fourth down, but they’re 18th in EPA allowed per rush attempt on the down. That signals potential opportunities for the star running back tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, the latter of whom is expected to be ready for the divisional round after missing the end of the regular season with an MCL injury.

2. Baltimore Ravens

Snapshot: The Ravens overcame an 0-2 start to win 12 games, securing the AFC North for a second straight season. Quarterback Lamar Jackson became the first player in league history to record at least 4,000 passing yards and 800 rushing yards in the same season, and also surpassed Michael Vick to become the NFL’s all-time leading rushing quarterback, making him Josh Allen’s biggest challenger for MVP. But Jackson had plenty of help in the backfield in free-agent acquisition Derrick Henry, who finished with 1,921 rushing yards and 18 total touchdowns. After struggles in the first half of the season, Baltimore’s defense also ascended late in the year, giving it the appearance of a complete team entering the postseason.

Why the Ravens can beat the Chiefs: It starts with Henry. Yes, Kansas City kept him in check when the teams met in the regular-season opener (a 27-20 Chiefs win): 13 carries, 46 yards. But the Ravens are a different team than they were in September. That was before Baltimore’s offensive line got in sync. The perennial Pro Bowl running back went on to record his second season of at least 1,900 rushing yards.

Henry in rhythm is bad news for Kansas City, which has historically struggled against him. In his six appearances against the Chiefs prior to this season, including the playoffs, Henry had 672 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on 5.6 yards per carry.

In their AFC Championship Game loss to the Chiefs last season, the Ravens got away from the run game in the second half, despite their deficit being no larger than 10 points at any point. Henry’s presence would give Baltimore a dynamic weapon outside of Jackson’s legs in the rushing attack.

1. Buffalo Bills

Snapshot: Many league observers expected this to be a reset year in Buffalo, which moved on from several key players last offseason, including perennial Pro Bowl receiver Stefon Diggs, who was traded to the Houston Texans. But the team far exceeded expectations, winning 13 games and securing the AFC East for a fifth straight year. The Bills even beat two eventual 14-win teams in the Chiefs and Lions. Allen is the betting favorite to win NFL MVP.

Why the Bills can beat the Chiefs: The Bills haven’t been able to convert regular-season success into playoff success against Kansas City in the Allen era (4-1 in the regular season, 0-3 in the postseason), but their ability to get pressure would give them a shot this year.

Buffalo boasted a 34.7% pressure rate during the regular season even though it blitzed at the fourth-lowest rate in the league (19.4%). In other words, the Bills have the ability to rattle Mahomes with four-man fronts, allowing them to stay fundamentally sound in the back end.

And Mahomes was sacked a career-high 36 times this season. He also had a career-high 5.85 sack rate. When the Bills beat the Chiefs in Week 11, handing Kansas City its first loss of the season, they generated a 37.1% pressure rate (fifth-most Mahomes faced this season) and 13 pressures (seventh-most), with one of those pressures creating one of his two interceptions.

The Bills have already beaten the Chiefs once this season. This is why they could do it again. And if they do, it would mean the end of Kansas City's three-peat dream.

Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.

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