National Football League

Bills' Josh Allen has yet to throw a pick. Is the gunslinger now a game manager?

Published Oct. 23, 2024 4:40 p.m. ET

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Henry McKenna

NFL Reporter

Josh Allen has a way of upending what we know about him.

As a prospect, he had accuracy issues. As a third-year pro, he completed 69.2% of his passes. Early in 2023, he was over-reliant on Stefon Diggs. By the end of the year, the Bills had found a more reasonable balance of targets for their star quarterback — and Allen was better for it. In 2023, Allen had turnover problems, with a career-high 18 interceptions. This year, he has zero interceptions through seven games. Going back to last season, he hasn't thrown a pick in nine straight games.

We've seen Allen move beyond several flaws in his game.

"The job that Josh Allen has done on being smart with the ball, throwing the ball away when he needs to, sliding when he needs to as well," said coach Sean McDermott, who has been highly critical of Allen for his turnovers in the past. "His level of decision-making has increased this season and been very important to our team and the wins that we've had."

It took McDermott three separate questions about the zero interceptions to truly praise Allen. And perhaps there's something to that. My sense is that McDermott doesn't want to jump the gun.

It's not like McDermott to take a victory lap, even when baited. But it's also the perfect opportunity for him to clap back (even subtly) at the NFL players who voted Allen as the "most overrated quarterback" in an anonymous poll on ESPN, with one player citing "too many turnovers" as the reason why. 

But maybe McDermott was hesitant to go all-in on Allen's ball security because … this transformation isn't quite as significant as the counting numbers show.

There have been folks heralding him as a game manager. I'm not sure that's true. The advanced stats mostly show he's just as much of a gunslinger this season — just much, much luckier. Now don't get me wrong: Josh Allen deserves to be neck-and-neck for the MVP award with Lamar Jackson.

But Allen's interception clean-sheet isn't a product of him making a big change in his game.

I'm going to throw out some stats to paint a clear picture. I just want folks to see what I'm seeing. Because it's crystal clear.

1. Through seven weeks, Allen has 10 turnover-worthy plays and zero interceptions. Through seven weeks last year, Allen had seven turnover-worthy plays and seven interceptions.
2. This year, his turnover-worthy-play percentage (4.3%) is the highest of his career since his rookie season.
3. His big-time throw percentage (7.1%) is tied for the highest of his career.
4. His yards per attempt sits at 7.8 in 2024 — just a tick higher than 7.4 in 2023.
5. His sack percentage (4.1%) is higher than in 2023 (3.7%).
6. His throwaway percentage (5.3%) is lower than in 2023 (5.5%).
7. This year, he is throwing 37.6% of his pass attempts short (0-10 yards past the line of scrimmage), 21.7% medium (10-20) and 14.3% of his balls deep (20-plus). Last year, he was throwing 46.3% of his passes short, 20% medium and 13.1% deep.

Bottom line, Allen is playing at an extremely high level — especially without Stefon Diggs.

Allen is throwing deep more and short less. He's making big-time throws. But just as much as ever, he's putting the ball in harm's way by taking sacks and creating turnover-worthy plays.

It's the same old Josh Allen.

Here's one more stat: Allen's tight-window percentage is the highest of his career (19%), surely because Allen's open target percentage (39.2) is his lowest since 2019.

There's a reason why the Bills went after Amari Cooper — the pass-catchers on the roster weren't getting it done and Allen was making something special out of mediocrity. He's doing it with aggressive throwing, and he's not holding back when receivers don't have separation.

I ranked Allen in the top two in my latest QB Stock Market. He is an elite signal-caller. It's just that this season is a reminder that, last year, Allen dealt with over-eager criticism over bad turnover luck. And this year, he'll probably get over-eager praise over good turnover luck.

Buffalo's coaches might be reluctant to praise Allen's turnover differential, but they have not been shy about praising his operational control of the offense.

"I think Josh is really playing the game, and especially in the five wins, the position," McDermott said Monday. "[He had] command of the offense and the game and understanding the situations that the offense is in — or that he's in throughout a game."

Can Josh Allen keep pace with Lamar Jackson in MVP race?

In the fourth quarter, Allen has a .22 expected points added per dropback, the third best of his career and sixth-best in the NFL (among QBs with at least 50 dropbacks). On third and fourth down, Allen is putting up .29 EPA per dropback, third-best in the NFL (50-plus dropbacks).

On the money downs and in the money moments of the game, Allen is putting together plays to win games. That's also the Allen we know: Put the ball in his hands and he'll do everything and anything to get a win.

He'll put himself in harm's way. He'll put the ball in harm's way. But he'll win way more games than he loses.

If anything, this run of interception-free football is great, if only because it draws attention to Allen's overall elite level of play. He's not overrated. He is a mistake-eraser. He's a gunslinger, tried and true.

But let's be real … he's no game manager.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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Henry McKenna