National Football League

Bills' top receivers Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis facing uncertain futures

Updated Feb. 21, 2024 5:50 p.m. ET

It has been hard to make sense of what is coming next for the Buffalo Bills' receivers.

Change is on the horizon, without a doubt. The Bills have pending free agents in Gabe Davis and Trent Sherfield. Deonte Harty could be a salary cap casualty, potentially freeing up $4.2 million with his release.

And then there's Stefon Diggs, who — fair or not — always seems to be at the center of offseason speculation. Given how much his production cratered in the second half of the season, the wideout is yet again mentioned in trade-speculation think pieces.

One thing is for sure: Quarterback Josh Allen's cap hit is steadily increasing. That is limiting what the Bills can do to support him with veterans at skill positions. The roster-building squeeze is underway. So it will be interesting to see which receivers, in particular, Buffalo retains as it attempts to hold the offense together. So let's take a look.

Here's what we've gathered so far, chatting with some people close to the top tandem of Diggs and Davis.

What can we make of the Stefon Diggs drama? Manufactured or real?

Diggs might be under contract through 2027 with the Bills, and he has made repeated comments that he wants to stay in Buffalo — but.

But?

"I wanted to retire a Bill," Diggs said on the "Up & Adams" show during Super Bowl week.

Wanted? Past tense? But I digress.

Diggs continued: "But also that's not predicated on me. You know what I'm saying? I also gotta keep it in the forefront of my brain that business is business. And I like to proceed as such, no matter what."

Stefon Diggs on Bills: "I can't tell you what the future holds"

Those comments come with the context that NBC Sports' Peter King wrote that he expects the Bills to want to do "major surgery" on the receiver's contract. Sources close to Diggs said he would likely restructure his deal to favor Buffalo (converting salary to signing bonus to free up cap space), but he would not be happy with a pay cut.

Nor should he. He's their WR1. Why should he take a pay cut?

The only reason the Bills would have any leverage to ask Diggs to take less money is because of his dip in production in the second half of the season. But I'd argue that the decline had basically nothing to do with a decline in his quality of play. It had everything to do with offensive coordinator Joe Brady making less use of Diggs — and increasing the usage of second-year receiver Khalil Shakir.

That might be all the more frustrating if the Bills do indeed approach Diggs about a pay cut. He was a good enough sport about the decline in usage. But if they come for his money after causing that decline? That's an unfair situation for Diggs. It makes you wonder about his long-term future in Buffalo.

And at the Pro Bowl, Diggs was asked: Will he be a Bill next year?

"I don't know," Diggs told NFL Network. "I feel like you talk about the money and all that type of stuff, I can't control none of that. … As far as what the future holds, shoot, I don't have any surprises for you right now."

It's clear Diggs is uncertain about how long he'll be in Buffalo.

It's also clear he isn't likely to go anywhere this year.

His contract is a tough one to move before June 1, not even in a trade. And there's no point in moving him after June 1, because there will likely be no one available after that point.

But the bottom line is: Buffalo badly needs Diggs in its offense. He's not just the top wideout, but he's also one of the best players on the team.

Allen needs Diggs.

But let's bookmark this conversation for the midpoint of 2024 near the trade deadline — and definitely in 2025. That's when both sides might want out.

What's next for Gabe Davis?

His contract is set to expire in March, and this week he posted to Twitter and Instagram a video that showed highlights from his Bills career and statistics. The video included the following messages: "Thank you for changing my life. Thank you for the memories."

It felt like a goodbye.

But that's not exactly what it was, according to a source close to Davis. The video was supposed to be an homage to Davis' work for Buffalo and to celebrate what he accomplished on his first contract. It wasn't necessarily to indicate that his Bills tenure was coming to an end. Davis has said, after all, that he's open to returning to the Bills.

"He's not positioning his career for the money. He doesn't drive nice cars," the source close to Davis said. "Buffalo is for real. That's the team that drafted him. People might think those comments are disingenuous because most people are disingenuous [about wanting to stay in free agency]. But for Gabe, it's real."

But there's also the reality of what free agency brings: big-money offers.

And there's the reality of what the Bills can offer, with the team currently $55 million over the salary cap. Davis' camp and Buffalo GM Brandon Beane will talk at the combine. There's only so much to say at this point, because Beane has already indicated he'll let Davis test free agency.

"He's earned the right … to see where his market's at. We'd be a fool not to want him back, but it has to work for him, it has to work for us," Beane said in January.

From my vantage, there's almost no chance Buffalo can retain Davis.

An AFC evaluator sees Davis as a $10 million-per-year type of player, though that number could go up if Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman get the franchise tag. Let's say Davis sees offers at $12 million to $14 million per year, a number north of Cowboys WR Michael Gallup ($11.5 million annually) and south of the Broncos' Courtland Sutton ($15 million).

Well, that's a number the Bills are unlikely to be able to pay.

Is the Bills' Super Bowl window still wide open?

And if a team like the Kansas City Chiefs or the Houston Texans make bigger offers, then we might see a situation like we saw last year in Buffalo with linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. Buffalo never stood a chance as soon as Edmunds hit the market. The Chicago Bears signed him to a four-year, $72 million deal with $50 million guaranteed.

And while Davis does love the Bills, take a look at his Instagram and see which quarterbacks he follows aside from Josh Allen. Those QBs would be Patrick Mahomes and C.J. Stroud.

The Chiefs have enough money to make it work with Davis — and they have a legendary quarterback who is sure to get the receiver to career-best production. And then the Texans are the best of both worlds — an offense that could use a veteran receiver and a team with plenty of cap space ($62 million, fifth-most in the NFL).

It's easy to imagine three things: There will be no shortage of quarterbacks interested in throwing to Davis. There will be no shortage of interest on the open market for Davis. There will likely be a new uniform on Davis in 2024.

What about Khalil Shakir? Isn't he the next guy up?

If Davis is likely gone this offseason and Diggs might be gone as soon as 2025, then the Bills need to begin planning for the future at the receiver position.

Davis' departure would bring an increased role for Shakir and tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox — and perhaps even running back James Cook. But if that's the plan — use what you have — the Bills would need to think about how their offense would change as a result. Because none of those players plays the same position as Davis, who lines up as an outside receiver. Shakir is technically a receiver, but he's at his best out of the slot.

If the Bills follow their formula (draft and develop to prepare for an impending departure), then receiver Justin Shorter, a 2023 fifth-round pick, would be next in line. The Bills are notorious for limiting a rookie's role, only to use him in a much bigger way in his second year. Just look at Shakir, Terrel Bernard, Gregory Rousseau and James Cook. It seems Kincaid will follow that trend, too. But Shorter had zero catches and spent the season on injured reserve despite a brief practice window and attempted return. It's hard to expect him to multiply a role that was zero (because — math! — anything multiplied with zero is still zero).

The Bills will need to adjust the way they run their offense, unless they can maximize production around a cheap perimeter player (which takes a rare combination of shrewd talent evaluation and great quarterback play). But either way, it's clear they have to start planning their future at receiver as soon as possible.

Because it looks like their top talent at the position is in flux.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.