National Football League

Bookmakers' thoughts on 49ers-Rams, Commanders-Colts; Gambling nuggets

Updated Oct. 30, 2022 12:10 p.m. ET

Sure, the San Francisco 49ers-Los Angeles Rams matchup is one of the more attractive games on the NFL Week 8 odds board. And there’s no shortage of intrigue around Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers as double-digit underdogs Sunday night at the Buffalo Bills.

But it’s another game with not nearly as much intrigue that’s seen some interesting activity this week: The Washington Commanders at the Indianapolis Colts.

Following are insights on that contest, along with several more betting nuggets on NFL Week 8 odds and college football Week 9 odds.

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Lassoed Colt

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Matt Ryan suffered a separated shoulder in a Week 7 loss at Tennessee. So most people expected Ryan to miss some time potentially. But coach Frank Reich decided that’d be it for Ryan, announcing Monday that Sam Ehlinger would start the rest of the season.

Reich elevated the second-year QB above Nick Foles and even Ryan. So the veteran in his 15th season will be the backup when he heals up. The news got bettors’ attention in a hurry.

"The big move here was on Monday when the Colts coach announced the quarterback move," said Rex Beyers, a longtime oddsmaker, now the head of wagering at PlayUp USA. "They were all fighting over Washington +4 when that announcement came. But I’m not particularly concerned."

As Commanders bets came in, Beyers initially moved the Colts down a point to -3 at PlayUp, then went to -2.5. He’s since returned the Colts to -3, and he likes his position on the other side of sharp customers who feel like they got a deal at Commanders +4 and +3. Especially since Beyers, who’s from Indiana, has heard nothing but good things about Ehlinger, the former Texas Longhorns standout who will make his first NFL start.

"At this point, Indianapolis is better off with a mobile quarterback who has a better arm," Beyers said. "There’s a good chance the Colts have solved their two biggest problems – QB and offensive line – with this move if this guy is as good as the reports I’m getting from back home say he is. I would upgrade the Colts, not downgrade them.

"So I’m perfectly fine needing the Colts for a decent pile on Sunday, as we do right now."

Who Wants the West

The Rams and Niners met in last season’s NFC Championship Game, with L.A. ultimately going on to win the Super Bowl. Neither team has been much to write home about so far this season. Currently, the Rams sit at 3-3 straight up (SU) and 2-4 against the spread (ATS), while the 49ers are 3-4 SU and ATS.

In fact, at the moment, both trail NFC West-leading Seattle (4-3 SU and ATS). San Francisco is behind L.A. in the division, but the Niners have a game in hand over Los Angeles. In the Week 4 Monday nighter, San Fran coasted to a 24-9 victory as a 1-point home favorite.

On Sunday, in FOX’s 4:25 p.m. ET national slot, the Rams hope to get some payback. WynnBet trader John Manica said the odds movement has been interesting thus far.

"This line actually opened up on [last week’s] look-ahead at Rams -2.5. Since then, the 49ers acquired Christian McCaffrey from the Panthers. This is significant because reports have come out that the Rams were clearly in the running for CMC, as well," Manica said. "The 49ers won that battle and the first encounter with the Rams. We saw the number move significantly after the [McCaffrey] trade to the 49ers, who are now favored by 1.5.

"The action has been small on the 49ers so far, but wide receiver Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is now a question mark for the game. The real action has not come in yet, but the pressure is on the Rams to avoid the sweep by the 49ers, especially [after] losing out on CMC."

Dylan Brossman, FOX Bet’s trading operations senior manager, also pinpointed the 49ers-Rams clash.

"We are seeing slightly more confidence with the Niners, despite laying 1.5 points. Nearly 57% of the money is behind San Fran on the road," Brossman said. "The Niners’ defense has struggled the past two weeks, giving up 44 points to the Chiefs and 28 points to Atlanta. While the Rams have struggled offensively this season, they may be getting help in the form of running back Kyren Williams and wide receiver Van Jefferson this week.

"The Rams are trending healthier, thanks to a timely bye, while the 49ers remain banged up on both sides of the ball. I like the Rams at home to win straight up."

On a side note, if you want to know how acquiring CMC impacted the 49ers' title odds, we got you covered here.

Dog Days of Aaron Rodgers

NFL Week 8 odds include a historical benchmark that no one ever thought Aaron Rodgers would see: being a double-digit underdog. But with Green Bay losing three in a row – to the Jets, Giants and Commanders – and now traveling to face a Buffalo team off its bye week, a Rodgers-led outfit is an 11-point pup at WynnBet.

"Wow. I did not expect this game to be double digits when the year started," Manica said. "Here we are in October, and the Bills have separated themselves as a clear-cut Super Bowl favorite. The Bills are obviously a pass-oriented offense, and since moving to this philosophy, the wind in Buffalo is important to note. Heavy winds in Buffalo actually hurt the home-field advantage, as the Bills are significantly better against the spread at home with low wind."

As it stands midweek, Sunday night calls for temperatures in the low-to-mid 50s and light winds.

"A beautiful night is in the cards in Buffalo. This spells trouble for the Packers," Manica said. "The look-ahead line was Bills -8 on this game. We opened at Bills -11, which is close to where the market is, at -11.5. Green Bay will have to hope for an off night from the Bills to keep pace in this one.

"Thus far, we have seen small two-way action on both the [spread] and the total, but no bets of major significance. The Bills’ team total (Over 28.5) is an attractive option for the game if you're not interested in laying a high number on the spread."

The Sharp Side

One professional bettor in Vegas jumped on the 49ers last week on that look-ahead line of +2.5. But beyond that, he’s not really enthused by the NFL Week 8 odds board.

"In all honesty, I don’t much love this week so far. The Thursday and Friday injury reports are imperative," he said while pointing to the Dolphins at Lions matchup. "Detroit +3.5 will most likely be a play. As long as D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown are good to go, I’ll be taking the points."

Swift (ankle/shoulder) appears set to play for the first time since Week 3. And coach Dan Campbell expects St. Brown to return from concussion protocol.

College Football Rocks on FOX

Saturday college football kicks off with the Big Noon on FOX tilt, in which you get Gus Johnson on your TV set – does it get any better? – when No. 2 Ohio State travels to No. 13 Penn State.

Beyers believes the 15-point spread might be a little steep for the Buckeyes in the noon ET matchup.

"Ohio State hasn’t played an offense with a pulse. Toledo is the best the Buckeyes have seen to this point," Beyers said. "That changes this week. It’s a big number to lay on the road, even with the early start."

That key Big Ten meeting is followed on FOX by a Big 12 contest between No. 9 Oklahoma State and No. 22 Kansas State, a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff.

DraftKings opened Oklahoma State -1 and quickly flipped to Kansas State -1 when this line went up Sunday afternoon. The Wildcats briefly touched -2 Monday afternoon and have since been stable at -1.5. But as of Wednesday night at DraftKings, the visiting Cowboys were drawing 75% of early spread tickets and 76% of early spread dollars.

Eagles Win/Steelers Cover?

That’s how FOX Bet customers are gaming out Sunday’s Keystone State battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5 SU, 3-3-1 ATS) and unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS).

On the moneyline – a bet in which a team simply has to win, not cover the spread – the Eagles are taking 90% of all dollars midweek at FOX Bet. And that’s despite a hefty moneyline price on the favorite of -550, meaning it takes a $550 bet to win $100.

But on the spread of Eagles -10.5, 60% of the money is on the Steelers to dodge losing by more than 10. Brossman isn’t keen on Pittsburgh’s chances of keeping this game within the number.

"The Eagles are fresh off a bye, while the Steelers are on a shortened week on the heels of their Sunday Night Football loss to the Dolphins," Brossman said. "Pittsburgh has not scored more than 20 points since Week 1, and I expect that to continue Sunday. Philly’s offense will simply be too much for Pittsburgh to keep pace. The Birds should cover the 10.5."

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

Sportsbooks haven’t shared much in the way of major wagers on NFL Week 8 or college football Week 9 games. But the final game of Week 7 saw one Caesars Sports customer get all the way there with the big underdog Chicago Bears.

The New Jersey bettor plopped $15,000 on the Bears moneyline +300, hoping Chicago would pull the outright upset. As it turned out, the 8.5-point underdog Bears coasted to a 33-14 victory. The bettor didn’t even have to sweat it out before cashing out with a $45,000 win.

The same bettor also wagered $40,000 on the Bears +8.5, so he cashed on that, as well, for another $36,364.

If only we had the bankroll to pile on such a nondescript matchup as Bears-Patriots and come out ahead by 80 grand or so. Here’s hoping all of you are just as fortuitous – though surely at a smaller scale – throughout this coming football weekend.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.