National Football League

Books agree on Bills-Chiefs: 'It could go any way on any given day they play'

Published Jan. 24, 2025 9:34 a.m. ET

Ah, the Arrowhead Invitational.

The Kansas City Chiefs host their sixth AFC Championship Game in seven seasons and the Buffalo Bills get another crack at sending the world champions home and sealing a spot in the big, bad Super Bowl.

How’s that for a promo?

Four days ago, an offshore oddsmaker posted the highly anticipated Bills-Chiefs rematch as a pick ‘em with a total of Over/Under 48. The line quickly pushed to Chiefs -1, which is where it opened at most Las Vegas sportsbooks.

Now the market is Chiefs -1.5/2.

While financial support for Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid at this stage of the NFL playoffs should surprise nobody, understand there’s also an appetite for several sports bettors to support the Bills at underdog prices.

The two-way write will be insane.

"It'll be very good," Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk management Jeff Sherman told FOX Sports from the desert.

"Anytime you have a team like Kansas City where the public likes to get behind the team because of all the success, it drives up the volume. You’ll get people that’ve supported Kansas City through this whole run that’ll continuously do so. We’ll have sharp players who bet Kansas City, too. And obviously, we’ll write plenty of opposition on Buffalo from other sharps.

"It’s very unlikely to reach [Kansas City -3]. I don’t think the market would allow that to happen. We’re sitting 2 and there’s a lot of 1.5 out there. You might see some places go to 2.5 and sit there trying to write some off. Three would result in instantaneous action on the dog.

"It’s going to be a tremendous volume game."

For Buffalo to win, MVP frontrunner Josh Allen must continue his ascension to one of the league’s brightest stars and outperform a quarterback that’s already won three Lombardi trophies by the age of 29.

"It all starts with Josh Allen," Sherman said. "He’s got the ability in short-yardage situations to add that dimension of a power run. It’s difficult for the other team to game plan for and still tough to stop even if you know it’s coming. I thought Buffalo took a step back going into the season, which is why Allen should be the MVP, because he’s doing more with less.

"That team goes as he goes."

AFC, NFC Championship Super Six: Which receiver will have the most receiving yards?

Speaking of performing, it was nice to see Travis Kelce drink from the perennial fountain of youth he always seems to find around this time of the calendar year.

Kelce’s player props were downright disrespectful last round against Houston. His props for catches (5.5), yards (51.5) and anytime touchdown (+160) all worked out for his backers. All Kelce did was catch seven passes for 117 yards and a score.

Naturally, the numbers are much higher this Sunday.

"It’s very similar to how we used to scale NBA props with Playoff Jimmy Butler," Sherman said. "We’ve got that with Playoff Kelce now. I heard he’s gone ‘Over’ the posted [yardage number] in 14 straight playoff games."

A quick fact check confirms Sherman’s stat about Kelce hauling in at least 70 receiving yards in his last 14 postseason contests. Is a stretch of 117, 93, 116, 75, 71, 81, 78, 98, 95, 96, 108, 133, 118 and 109 yards any good?

Holy cow.

"So, you make that upward adjustment," Sherman continued. "Because people expect elevation of Kelce’s game, and they also expect Mahomes to look for his favorite target more often given the circumstances.

"We have to react to all that. But when you make a large adjustment, you usually see sharp players go to the ‘Under’ and believe in what they’ve seen for most of the season. You do write more public money in the playoffs, though, so you can make the necessary adjustments upward and be okay with them."

As for the game itself, I want Kansas City to win for selfish reasons. I placed my annual Chiefs bet at 6-1 back in August, and per usual, it’s aged handsomely. But it’s silly to act like it’s impossible for Buffalo to finally slay the dragon.

In fact, Allen to score a touchdown (+100) is my favorite bet.

Why Patrick Mahomes is under more pressure: 'He's chasing Tom Brady'

At the end of the day, we’re talking about two of the NFL’s best teams playing a coin-flip game that likely gets decided by whichever star quarterback makes the most plays in the biggest moments. That’s usually how the cookie crumbles in a game of this magnitude between otherworldly figures.
Even Sherman knows it.

"It could go any way on any given day they play."

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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